Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.01.06)

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 6, 2011 17:18

EURO DEEPENS SELLOFF, partly on overall USD strength but mainly on resurging Eurozone debt worries on 1) Portugal's announcement to issue EUR 750 mln and EUR 1.25 bln in 2 bonds maturities next week and 2) EUs pressing ahead with its plan to spread the burden of EU bank failures to senior bondholders ie haircuts and that no bank is too big to fail. The fact that the ECB is also pushing for this idea (that bank bond holders should take a loss) is surprising because the central bank opposed the idea of sovereign bond holders taking haircuts. That is the reason to the 20-bp jump in Portuguese bond spreads to 4-week highs. EURUSD DEEPENS BREAK BELOW 200-day MA eyeing 1.2978. I said on Monday EURUSD needed to close the week above the $1.3460s ie the 55-week MA in order to invalidate the downtrend. This has not happened and the bearishness remains and so does my prelim outlook for $1.27. Meanwhile, some pvt economists expect NFP tomorrow to exceed 300k, w/ some saying 450K. I will post my Video Mkt Analysis shortly. ****** SHORTY AWARDS: If you would like to vote for me for this years SHORTYAWARDS, please go to the link and fill in the sentence in the box stating the reason why you would nominate me. Please make sure you state a reason before you click Tweet your vote. THANKS FOR YOUR SUPPORT. THANS TO YOU that last year I placed 4th out of +500 in the finance category.


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