Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.01.10)

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 10, 2011 11:58

STERLING SHAKEN by the 1.3% decline in December Halifax house price index following a 0.2% decrease in November. Sterlings resilience late last week was partly boosted by indirect strength from the falling EURGBP. But as Eurozone debt re-merges in focus and the future of Portugals sustainability comes to the fore, we recall UK banks debt exposure to Ireland/Portugal/Spain (Barclays at GBP 94 bln). This does not alter my bearish outlook on EURGBP first mentioned in this as the 2009 trendlline resistance remained intact at 0.8620s before failing & retreating below 0.83. A daily close below 0.8280 will pave the way for 0.8150, which I continue to expect in early February. GBPUSD never made it above $1.56, confirming the downside path towards $1.53. MANY OF THE QUESTIONS YOU HAVE RAISED (on Yields in FX, Top-Down Approach to FX & Dissecting USDX Analysis) will be tackled for 8 hours in my London workshop on Jan 23. Regsitration details


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