Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.01.22)

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 22, 2011 0:33

HISTORICAL PARALLELS OF DOW-30 & S&P500. The DJIA is up for the 8th consecutive week, while the S&P500 ended the week lower after 7 straight weekly gains. In the case of the Dow, the last time there was an 8-week winning streak was in March-April, before the index dropped 13% coinciding with the week of the Flash Crash. The weekly RSI on the Dow has exceeded the 70% level for the 1st time sincethat same last week of April. Aside from the Mar-Apr 2010 period when the Dow gained for 8 straight weeks, it was back in Nov 2003-Jan 2004 when such an interrupted winning streak occurred. The time before that was in Jan-Mar 1998. As for a winning streak longer than 8 weeks, youd have to go to 1995 when the Dow-30 rallied for 10 straight weeks (Mar-May 1995). In the case of the S&P500, it posted 7 consecutive winning weeks, the longest period since 2007. We have to go back to Nov 2003-Jan 2004 to find 9-straight winning weeks in the S&P500. COMBINING THE HISTORICAL implications of these extended rallies with the overstretched oscillators, equity markets could be looking at the much anticipated sell-off that many of us market watchers have gotten so wrong. There are other elements supporting these analysis emerging in FX MARKETS as well as in the INTER COMMODITY COMPLEX to which I will dedicate a 1/3 of my time in Day-long intensive FX/Interdynamic workshop on Sunday in London. Here are the details to register.


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