Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.01.28)

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 28, 2011 11:45

FOLLOW MY CONTINUOUS TWEETS ON DEVELOPMENTS IN EGYPT as crowds gather near presidential palace & police shots reportedly directed at crowds. Further uncertainty in Egypt may raise the question of Event Risk on oil and possibly weigh on USD. *** GBP biggest loser after UK consumer confidence slumped to 22-mth low & biggest decline since 1992. BUT USD INABILITY TO RALLY despite decline in Oil and Gold is partly due to Moody's report indicating a potential revision of US credit rating w/ in 2 years. ALL EYES ON US Q4 GDP expected at +3.5% from 2.6% in Q3, but WATCH PERS EXPENDITURE, which could rise by as much as 4.0% showing the highest increase in 4 years (since Q4 2006). Such robust expectations suggest the US recovery is ongoingalbeit sketchy in terms of jobsbut may also mean the consensus sets the market up for a possible disappointment as it raises the bar of expectations. USDJPY longs and $GBPUSD shorts seen major movers on upside surprise, but any disappointment to weigh on OIL. GOLD seen breaking below 1300 to test the 200-day MA at 1288, while Silver expected to deepen losses into next week near 23.


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