Archived IMT (2011.02.14)

TUESDAY's UK JAN CPI will likely deliver its share rising rate hike expectations (currently pricing two 25-bps hikes for 2011). Analysts median expectations according to MNI stand at 4.2%, with 4.0%-4.4% range. Although BoEs Mervyn King predicted CPI would further increase above the 4% level, such figures are unlikely to prevent a knee-jerk reaction rise in GBP, primarily against JPY (especially on rising yields hurting yen) and EUR (dragged by ECB succession uncertainty & Feb 25 Irish elections). Having said, any figure above +3.8% would be well above the 3.55% predicted for Q1 in the latest BoE inflation report. Wednesday's BoE inflation report will likely announce an upgrade in the Bank's projections for the oft-mentioned temporary inflation jump, but any sterling gains will be subject to the Report's GDP growth expectations and whether a downgrade is communicated. EURGBP at risk of breaking down to 0.810ss. SEE CHART AT UPCOMING IMT.