Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2011.03.18)

by Ashraf Laidi
Mar 18, 2011 10:03

G7 Yen "No-Buy" Zone, UN Libya No-Fly Zone ----- Before I get into todays yen action, it is important to keep readers alert of a potential Chinese tightening action (RRR rather than rate hike. Recall that China benefits from a rising yen due to its prolonged purchases of Japanese Govt Bonds. Recall that the PBOC made its first interest rate hike since 2007 (not RRR) on Oct 19, less than one month after Japan made its first intervention since 2004 on Sep 2010. Any rate hike would upset risk appetite and dampen the G7 efforts to weaken yen. After all, China is not a member of the G7. Just stay alert this morning --------- WILL INTERVENTION WORK? Japans principal aim is to bring the yen to pre-earthquake levels. The durability of the latest yen weakness will mainly work to the extent of continued coordinated yen selling by the G7 central banks. --------- From an interest rate element, coordination stands robust chances of success considering rate hike expectations priced in for the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. The same applies for the Bank of Canada, whose currency is propped by supply and demand dynamics in the oil sector. This leaves us with the Federal Reserve, which may be the weakest (and most important) link considering expectations for further QE beyond June. DESPITE THE prospects for intervention success from an monetary policy stance, concerted action may fail (and yen rises anew) if financial markets react negatively to the aforementioned tightening aspirations of the BoE, ECB and BoC. MORE FREQUENT INSIGHTS ON TWITTER


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