Intraday Market Thoughts

Uncertainty Lingers as Rifts Open up on Greek Bailout Plan

by Kyle Morrison
Sep 28, 2011 8:34

Greece property tax passes, but rifts open with respect to Greek loan rollover, German CPI and import prices expected to fall, French GDP remains flat, US Durable goods due. Ashraf's CNBC Interview below.

Europe remains the centre of attention today with Finland due to vote on the extension of powers of the EFSF bailout fund later today. Greece managed to pass the unpopular property tax yesterday, which was pretty much expected given the PM Papandreou was in Berlin. Tensions still remain within Europe however after splits started to emerge among seven of the seventeen member states with respect to the amount of write downs private creditors would have to wear in respect of the new Greek bailout. Some German officials with support from other members have insisted that creditors take bigger haircuts than the 21% initially agreed as the fiscal situation in Greece has deteriorated markedly since July 21st when the agreement was first drafted.

Ashraf's CNBC Intereview earlier today. http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000047932

The timing for the next loan instalment has also been delayed until the last possible minute, two weeks or so from now.

German consumer prices for September are expected to fall back 0.1% on the month, while staying 2.4% year on year while import prices are also expected to fall back 0.3%, lowering the annual rate from 6.5% to 5.7%. If these falls come in as predicted we could well see the ECB signal a slightly easier policy stance at next weeks monthly meeting. A rate cut would be unlikely, before November.

French Q2 GDP this morning came in as expected, remaining unchanged at 0%, confirming that Europes second largest economy is on the brink of slipping into contraction and highlighting the precarious fiscal position it could soon find itself in, if economic conditions continue to deteriorate.

Ashraf's Premium Intermarket Insights hit all or most targets for EURUSD, EURJPY, US Crude, while gold and CADJPY trades remain in progress. Silver, USDCAD and ES were stopped out. Direct access here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=505

In the US yesterdays consumer confidence figure for September showed that the US consumer remains weighed down by concerns about the US economy. August durable goods orders arent expected to lift the outlook for the US economy either.

 
 

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