Intraday Market Thoughts

EU Leaders find IMF Financing Loophole, EUR Struggling

by Kyle Morrison
Dec 9, 2011 10:11

EU leaders agree on bolstering IMF funding, China CPI sees fastest slowdown in over 2 years, UK trade deficit narrowed by its fastest pace on record down in October, more EU press conferences are due around the US open. all Premium EURUSD shorts hit targets

The latest from EU talks is that leaders have agreed to make EUR 200 bln available to the IMF coming in the form of EUR 150 bln in bilateral loans through national central banks, with the remaining EUR 50 bln from non-Eurozone EU nations.

It seems Europe has found a loophole. Although the ECB was opposed to the idea of national central banks lending to Eurozone via IMF, the ECB said a workaround would be to send central banks funds to the IMFs general resources account, designed to deploy funds to crisis loans.

There is also word from Japan, Brazil and China to bolster the Eurozone financing to the IMF via matching Eurozone funds. This could mean raising the total contribution to EUR 400 bln, but nothing is yet confirmed.

Regarding the EFSF, there is a preliminary agreement (according to leaked documents) that the existing EUR 440 bln EFSF will continue operating when the new EUR 500 bln fund (ESM) kicks in next year. Germany, however, remains opposed and insists that the current EFSF is operational.

German Nov CPI remained was unrevised at +2.8% y/y from Octobers +2.9%.

UK Oct Trade deficit narrowed by its fastest pace on record down to 7.6 bln from 10.2 bln

China November CPI slowed to 4.2% y/y from 5.5% y/y in October, posting its biggest monthly decline February 2009. Such a sharp decline in prices increases the possibility of reduction in Chibas benchmark interest rate on lending as early as this month. The PBOC could well deliver a rate cut on Christmas day, as it raised rates last Christmas. Some say Chinas focus on growth may be positive for overall risk appetite, but it could also be argued that the quick shift of focus means a panic by the worlds fastest growing economy, which could have negative demand implications to other Asian engines.

ES, Gold, US crude, USDCAD and silver shorts remain in progress. Oil shorst missed target by 5 cents, while all EURUSD shorts are done. Direct access here: Non Subscribers can click here:


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