Euro Golden Cross in Effect, Yen Shorts at 5-year Highs

The Golden cross Ashraf warned about on Monday is now in effect. Premium Subscribers see the link in Monday's edition. Risk assets climbed late on Friday despite a slowdown in the Chicago PMI. Cable touched a four month high but CHF was the top performer with JPY lagging. CFTC positions showed a surge in yen shorts. We also look at Q1 market performance. JPY shorts jumped to 67K vs 26K prior, reaching their highest shorts since July 2007, when the yen neared its bottom before the explosive rally of 2007-2008. Thursday afternoons Premium longs in EURUSD saw 1 done, the other unfilled; both EURJPY longs done. 1 crude short was stopped out the other in progress. See more details below. unfilled, the other Gold long unfilled by 2, 1 Crude short stopped out

USD/JPY fell below 82 early in US trading on Friday but rebounded to 82.85 by the end of the day. Traders may have been waiting for year-end repatriation before establish long positions. The yen was broadly weaker with EUR/JPY climbing back above 1.10.

An early risk off tone was established by continue concerns about Spain as budget deficit figures were revised higher. Adding to worries was a disappointing reading on US personal income, which rose 0.2% in February compared to the +0.4% expected. Personal spending data was stronger than expected at +0.8% but the mismatch between higher spending and lower earnings is unsustainable.

Regional manufacturing indexes continue the recent disappointing trend as the Chicago PMI slipped from a 10 month high to 62.2 compared to 63.0 expected. Employment slipped to 56.3 from 64.2.

An upside surprise came in the final revision to the University of Michigan consumer sentiment data as it climbed to 76.2 from 74.5. Worries about weather effects on US data may be confirmed or put to rest in the week ahead with the ISMs and non-farm payrolls.

The first quarter of the year features an incredible run-up in risk assets as European policymakers got a handle on the sovereign crisis. The yen was by far the weakest performer falling more than 7% against the US dollar. The best performer was NZD, climbing 5.3% but in a bit of a surprise AUD climbed just 1.4%.

Relative stock market performance also demonstrated the improvement in Europe. Germanys DAX climbed 21% in Q1 compared to +12% in the S&P 500 , +11% in the Nikkei and +3% in the Shanghai Composite. Silver outperformed gold +15.6% to +6.6%.

COT recap

The CFTC Commitments of Traders report showed a sharp rise in yen shorts and a pullback in CAD longs.

EUR shorts increased to 89K vs 82K prior

JPY short jumped to 67K vs 26K prior. Highest shorts since July 2007, when the yen neared its bottom before the explosive rally of 2007-2008.

GBP short were pared to 11K vs 15K prior

AUD longs grew to 59K vs 45K

CAD longs were nearly halved to 23K vs 42K prior

NZD were virtually unchanged, 3.9K vs 4.2K prior

CHF shorts increased to 15K vs 11K prior

Thursday afternoons Premium longs in EURUSD saw 1 done, the other unfilled; 1 AUDUSD long was done and so were both EURJPY longs. 1 Crude oil short was stopped out the other in progress. 1 silver short remains in progress, while gold long was unfilled by 2 pts. Both EURGBP longs remain in progress, See more details below. unfilled, the other Gold long unfilled by 2, 1 Crude short stopped out. DIRECT ACCESS TO THURSDAYs Premium Trades, See here: http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=621