Intraday Market Thoughts

Archived IMT (2009.02.17)

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 17, 2009 15:56

As US equity indices approach Nov lows (12-yr lows in S&P and 6-year lows in the Dow), a breach of those levels is increasingly imminent. My forecasts suggest at least another 30-35% slide in the major indices into the next 6-8 months to be made possible by the next round of hedge fund (and mutual fund) redemptions. Recall that that 52% and 38% peak-to-trough declines in the S&P and Dow in the 2000-2 bear market emerged mainly due to overvalued stocks (and not on a banking or housing crisis). the likelihood for additional declines from the current 53% and 47% peak-to-trough declines is significant. I will demonstrate my cyclical analysis at next weeks New York Traders Expo. See the banner for more detail.


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