Archived IMT (2009.04.13)
As USD pushes ahead against the JPY, it has yet to breach above the major resistance of 101.65, which is the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the August high of 110.7 to the to the January low of 87.13. Reiterating the call from the previous USDJPY HotChart (April 3rd), a breach above 101.65 is required for an extension of recent advances, before targeting 103.45. Thin holiday trading aided in speeding up the moves in FX pairs with high carry, but any catalyst leading to unwinding of these risk trades (earninngs, high CPI, weak indus production) is likely to concentrate into dragging USDJPY below 100 and onto the 200-day MA of 99.
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