Archived IMT (2008.10.03)

S&P 500 closes at lowest since October 2004 (-25% YTD), Dow closes at lowest since October 2005 (-22% YTD). The House of Representatives joined the US Senate in passing the TARP rescue package but markets revert to worrying about the real economy, and will most likely force the Fed into an inter-meeting rate cut. Neither the Congressional Bill, Warren Buffett's purchase of GE stake, nor Wells Fargo's purchase of Wachovia could distract the markets from the emerging fact of a deepening recession. High yielding FX lose 2/3 of their US session gains, to the benefit of the CHF and JPY. This was our prediction in our morning note. Expect coordinated central bank rate cuts as early as next week.