Archived IMT (2009.09.04)

Bad news on the unemployment rate and "better" news on the payrolls front was the theme for both the US and Canada. US payrolls fell by 216K (exp -225K) and the unemp rate hit a 26-yr high of 9.7% (exp 9.6%, prev 9.4%). Canadas unexpectedly created 27K in August (expected -20K) but the unemployment rate rose to an 11 year high of 8.7% from 8.6%, dragging USDCAD down to a session low of 1.0880 before rebounding towards 1.0920 on continued selloff in oil prices. As the pendulum of risk appetite swings from the negative unemployment rates to the positive payrolls (better than expected and positive revisions), we expect to see oil capped at 68.80, GBPUSD capped at $1.6380 (showed the typical pop high followed by a drop to $1.6290, USDJPY capped at 92.90 (though we saw a print of 93.24. We still expect GBPUSD to reach $1.6270, followed by 1.6230 next week, especially if a retreat in US stocks in the last 30-40 mins of trading prompts profit-taking in Monday Asia. Follows us on the NEW & IMPROVED STOCKTWITS http://desktop.stocktwits.com/ twitter/alaid.com