Intraday Market Thoughts

What's after the Stimulus?

by Adam Button
Jan 15, 2021 14:40

Joe Biden unveiled a huge stimulus plan on Thursday and the next step will be to watch how lawmakers react to it. USD pushes back up as yields are immobile, while the reflation trade gets hit as Biden's $1.9 trillion plan is likely to be watered down by lawmakers. Below are some of the trades to fade yesterday's EURUSD bounce and re-enter XAUUSD shorts for our WhatsApp BroadCast Group members.  Ashraf warned members to continue fading any USD pullback ahead and from Yellen's testimony next week .

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What's after the Stimulus? - Whatsapp Samples Jan 15 2021 (Chart 1)

Details of the stimulus package rolled out Thursday and it will include $1400 cheques, $350B for state and local governments, $440B for businesses, larger unemployment benefits and more for vaccines and testing. The only thing the market might not like is $15/h minimum wage, but that was a key campaign promise.

The price tag is $1.9T and that's less than the 'trillions' promised by Biden last week but this is also just a first step with a larger long-term infrastructure and green plan to come.

The details of the plan are important but equally important will be how lawmakers in both parties react. This is a tough plan to vote down for politicians on both sides but won't underestimate the partisanship and hypocrisy in Washington.

If something that largely resembles this plan sails through Congress, it's a strong sign of Democratic unity and spending. That will push up yields and drag the dollar with it, at least initially. If it's immediately bogged down in infighting, then it will dampen the US recovery.

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What's after the Stimulus? - Biden Aid Comments Jan 14 2021 (Chart 2)


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