Intraday Market Thoughts Archives
Displaying results for week of Feb 23, 2014Rising USDCAD Awaits Friday's GDP
The Canadian dollar awaits Friday's release of December and Q4 GDP, which could be the worst reading in 6 months. The bullish bias of the pair is especially highlighted by the fact that it took as many as 12 sessions for USDCAD to drop 2.8% earlier this month, but took as few as 3 sessions to pare back all those losses. More charts & analysis
| Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP (DEC) (m/m) | |||
| -0.3% | 0.2% | Feb 28 13:30 | |
| GDP Annualized (Q4) (q/q) | |||
| 2.5% | 2.7% | Feb 28 13:30 | |
Recording of my Intermarket Webinar
Six years after the release of my book on "Currency Trading & Intermarket Analysis", I revisit the topic in yesterday's webinar on BIGtv, with Ed Matts, focusing on the latest role of the dollar and yen in their relation to equities and risk appetite. Full recording here
Adding 10 & 2 yr Spreads to this AUD Cross
Yesterday we made the technical case for fresh longs in AUDNZD Premium trades. Today we introduce 10 and 2-year government yield spreads to another trade involving the Aussie. This particular Aussie cross is +7% year-to-date, while the Australian 2-year yield spread over this currency's 2-year spread is nearing 3-year highs. Tonight's Aussie Q4 construction figures (19:30 ET, Wed 0:30 GMT) are expected at 0.2% from previous 2.7%, while Thursday's release of Aussie Q4 Capex should also add more clarity to the currency. I referred to the pair as the perfect storm in my Feb 5 seminar and the last 2 weeks have confirmed so far.
Scottish Sterlingisation or Currency Board?
Since Whitehall has clearly eliminated the prospects of approving currency union in the case of an independent Scotland, the possible (realistic) alternatives remain between sterlingisation and a currency board. What's the difference and what does it mean?
Starting w/ Tonight's Kiwi CPI Expectations
Tonight's release of the Q1 RBNZ Inflation Expectations index (Tuesday 2:00 am GMT) will trigger fresh volatility in NZD, hours after the RBNZ expressed concern with currency strength despite lack of tightening. The cyclicality of the bottoming process in AUDNZD monthly chart (3rd chart in today's 4 charts) also highlights the case for our 2 trades. Thursday's release of Aussie Q4 CAPEX will also introduce dynamics in our existing AUDUSD Premium trades especially as market participants balances their reaction between capex for Q4 2013 and forward-looking plans for Q1 2014.While
| Act | Exp | Prev | GMT |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBNZ Inflation Expectations (Q1) (y/y) | |||
| 2.3% | Feb 25 2:00 | ||
