Bulls Reclaim Despite Virus Spread
Just as the weight of the continued rise in US virus cases finally pulled down risk trades on Wednesday, the key price levels held up;
- DOW30 held up atop the start of the down gap from March 6.
- SPX tested the 200-DMA before closing well above it.
- VIX fell 5 points after failing to cross the 100-DMA.
- US crude oil remained underpinned babove the 37 lows.- DAX found persistent support above the Mar 18 trendline support.
One narrative to keep an eye on is masks. Some US leaders are increasingly coming around to the idea that masks are imperative to spark any kind of recovery. VP Pence was seen in a mask Wednesday in a rare shift. Business leaders are talking more about masks as a way to restore confidence and a major upside risk is that talk resonates with Trump. It would be a major U-turn for the President but his poll numbers are dropping and his re-election depends on successful restart of the economy.
At the same time, the true level of economic activity is murky. There is an increasing focus on high-frequency data like hours worked from Homebase. It shows a recent dip in hard-hit US states and that poses a big risk for the reopening story.
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