Intraday Market Thoughts

ECB Repayments & IFO Stabilize Euro

by Ashraf Laidi
May 24, 2013 17:39

Germany's IFO showed the first increase rise in 4 months, while the ECB announced LTRO repayments of €8.123 bn, well above the average repaid so far. The yen is the day's biggest gainer, followed by the Swiss franc, with the same applies for the week. This supports our indication in April that the yen has not lost its safe haven appeal during falling sessions in equities exceeding 1.0%. The Nikkei managed to close in the black this week, recovering 600 points during the session. Next week's support stands at 13,720. EURUSD posts its 1st rising week after 2 straight declines attempting to close above its 55-WMA. Having won half of the battle via its pledge to start the OMT, the ECB succeeded in suppressing bond yields and stabilizing the euro. The ECB must now lead a similarly aggressive plan for reviving the economy. The Eurozone posted posted its 6th consecutive quarterly GDP contraction, Italy and Spain are in their 7th consecutive negative quarters, France posted another 2.0% decline in Q1, while Germany narrowly escaped a double dip after edging up 0.1% in Q1. Draghi has no choice but to do more. And with 1.2% inflation at 3-year lows, well below the ECB's 2.0% target, Germany has no excuse to veto further easing.  GBPUSD falls for the 3rd straight week. GBP, CAD and AUD are the only decliners vs USD this week . 2 USDCAD,  2 EURUSD, 1 of 2 USDJPY, 2 of 2 EURJPY and 1 silver trades are in progress, while 2 AUDUSD await fill. All of these trades are in the latest Premium Insights.

Act Exp Prev GMT
GDP s.a (Q1) (q/q)
0.1% 0.1% -0.6% May 24 6:00
GDP n.s.a (Q1) (y/y)
-1.4% -1.4% 0.1% May 24 6:00
GDP w.d.a (Q1) (y/y)
-0.2% -0.2% 0.4% May 24 6:00

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