Exactly what gold needs
We've heard of interest rate differentials, yet what about inflation differentials? Breakeven 2 year inflation is at a new high of 3.6%, while 10-year breakeven inflation is at a more stable 2.5%. This is partly related to the shrinking gap between 10 and 2 year US govt bond yields, which went from a high of 1.60% in March of last year to 0.49% today. Although 10 year yields remain higher than 2s (by 0.49%), the gap has shrunk to the extent that an inverted yield becomes a matter of time…as well as predictions for an upcoming recession.
The most striking aspect of all this is the plunging spread between 10 and 2 year inflation breakeven. It is now at a record low of -1.2%. It's another way of telling us that inflation will drop back in the longer term, thereby possibly cutting the life of any Fed tightening campaign. An inflation level that is high enough to eliminate deflation fears, but low enough to keep Fed haws at bay is exactly what gold wants.
Ive consistently explained over the past 8 months, that gold will survive the inevitable Fed (tapering & tigtening) despite some chart similarities to 2012-2014. It's always helpful to watch the reasoning behind the thinking--discussed here, in here and here...and of course don't miss this one here
Latest IMTs
-
Deflationary Bitcoin صلابة بيتكوين
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 24, 2024 11:20
-
Of Gold Extensions مقياس إمتدادات الذهب
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 15, 2024 16:38
-
Bitcoin performance & Miners Prehalving
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 9, 2024 17:07
-
English Translation to Arabic Interview
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 7, 2024 21:01
-
فشل الفدرالي في إقناع الأسواق
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 6, 2024 14:17