Intraday Market Thoughts

Is GBP Done?

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 11, 2014 19:12

After having been stopped out of our last two Premium GBPUSD longs, we remain out of the pair and issue a new trade on a GBP cross with greater confidence, due to heightened GBP volatility ahead of (and after) Wednesday's super-UK-release of UK jobs data (June ILO unemployment rate seen at 6.4% from 6.5%, Jul jobless claims seen at -30K from -36.3K, June average weekly earnings seen at -0.1% from 0.3%) and the BoE's quarterly inflation report due an 1 hour later. The multi-component UK jobs report will likely have something for everyone as GBP has grown increasingly responsive to all three components of the report. Yet, the expected negative print on average weekly earnings could dominate GBP on the downside if the other two components come in within expectations. As for the BoE report, this too will have three major components. All of these key elements, in addition to Carney's subsequent testimony and response to questions will shape the overall impact of GBP flows into the rest of the UK day. This is the same GBP cross we issued four months ago, which pocketed 300 pips. Will we be lucky again this time? Key in the latest Premium trades.


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