Oil Dictates FX & the Rest
It's spring in the northern hemisphere and that's the busiest time of year for home sales. This year is a particular test because the market has been deeply inventory constrained. One side of the argument is that low rates and social shifts due to the pandemic have brough on a housing boom. The other is that high house prices have been brought on by a lack of inventory due to reluctant sellers during the pandemic.
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With restrictions relaxed – particularly in the US – a moment of reckoning is coming. If a flood of homes undermines recent price rises then it could undermine the recovery. If prices continue to run, then it could supercharge the economy. Similar dynamics are playing out in a number of countries.
In February, existing home sales slowed to a pace of 6.22m from 6.66m and that was shy of the 6.50m consensus. Under the surface, prices were up 15.8% y/y and inventories shrank by a record 29.5% y/y. Reports about bidding wars are rampant, particularly in the suburbs and secondary cities.
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