Intraday Market Thoughts

Oil Dictates FX & the Rest

by Adam Button
Mar 23, 2021 18:37

We were going to cover the tailwinds to housing but the deepening selloff in oil is leaving no choice for FX traders but to buy USD. Oil is down 6% after Thursday's 7% plunge, which is triggering broad gains in USD, such as EURUSD 200-DMA and sub 1.3770s in cable. DOW30 currently breaking the all important 32600, calling 32330 and SPX sets sight to to 3893. Ashraf informed members of the Whatsapp Broadcast Group about the broken neckline in US crude oil, which merits close scrutiny in the days to come. The snapshots below are from Monday's NASDAQ-DOW-Yields calls to the Group based on a deepening triangularity. 

Click To Enlarge
Oil Dictates FX & the Rest - Whatsapp Triangularity Mar 23 2021 (Chart 1)

It's spring in the northern hemisphere and that's the busiest time of year for home sales. This year is a particular test because the market has been deeply inventory constrained. One side of the argument is that low rates and social shifts due to the pandemic have brough on a housing boom. The other is that high house prices have been brought on by a lack of inventory due to reluctant sellers during the pandemic.

If you dont own some cryptos, then we dont know what youve been waiting for. Below are what happened to STORJ and ADA weeks after Ashraf mentioned them to the Whatsapp Broadcast Group. Look it up for yourselves guys. 

Click To Enlarge
Oil Dictates FX & the Rest - Whatsapp Storj Cardano (Chart 2)

With restrictions relaxed – particularly in the US – a moment of reckoning is coming. If a flood of homes undermines recent price rises then it could undermine the recovery. If prices continue to run, then it could supercharge the economy. Similar dynamics are playing out in a number of countries.

In February, existing home sales slowed to a pace of 6.22m from 6.66m and that was shy of the 6.50m consensus. Under the surface, prices were up 15.8% y/y and inventories shrank by a record 29.5% y/y. Reports about bidding wars are rampant, particularly in the suburbs and secondary cities.



Latest IMTs