Intraday Market Thoughts

RBA Announcement Looms, CAD Shorts Jump

by Adam Button
Sep 3, 2013 0:07

US holiday trading was light but a long weekend of rest was just the tonic ahead of a big month. The Australian and New Zealand dollars were the top performer while yen lagged. The Aussie will stay in the spotlight with the RBA meeting on the schedule.

In one week, a US-led attack on Syria has gone from a near-certainty to a question mark and the scope of any operation has diminished. The change in tone over the weekend led to better sentiment in markets and risk trades benefitted.

Syria will continue to be a top priority for the markets but other concerns are climbing the agenda. Up first is the RBA decision today at 0430 GMT. The market is pricing in less than a 5% chance of a rate cut but the clues toward what officials will do next are critical.

Before the announcement the Australian dollar could also react to current account data for Q2 and July retail sales.

Commitments of Traders

Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday. Net short denoted by - long by +. EUR +40K vs +37K prior JPY -78K vs -72K prior GBP -38K vs -40K prior AUD -71K vs -63K prior CAD -25K vs -10K prior NZD +1K vs flat prior CHF +1K vs +1K prior US Dollar Index longs at 12K vs 12K prior

These numbers are worth remembering heading into what will surely be a very volatile month. The latest shift is an increase in bets against the Canadian dollar.

Act Exp Prev GMT
Current Account Balance (Q2)
-8.3B -8.5B Sep 03 1:30
Retail Sales (JUL) (m/m)
0.4% 0.0% Sep 03 1:30

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