Intraday Market Thoughts

USDJPY where to after the Death Cross?

by Ashraf Laidi
Aug 4, 2014 18:17

Last week, USDJPY completed its 2nd consecutive weekly rise, the first of such gains in three months. In a matter of three days, the pair broke above its 55, 100 and 200 day moving averages. But for those who give importance to Death and Golden crosses, the pair's 100-day moving average dropped below the 200-DMA for the first time since December 2012. Does this matter? We said previously that MA crosses must be evaluated individually for their track record. Some are revealing, while others are worthless. What about the 10-year yield? It continues to attempt (and fail) to break above its 100-day moving average for the past 7 months. The divergence between stocks and yields may have slowed last week when S&P50 fell and yields rallied but the gap hasn't even been halved, and the S&P500-10-yr Yield ratio remains on the rise. Does that mean both will drop lower, or something new is afoot? We issued a new trading idea & 3 charts on USDJPY on Friday, found in the latest Premium Insights.


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