Intraday Market Thoughts

Volatity Surge due in 20 Mins, New Premium Trades

by Ashraf Laidi
Jun 19, 2013 18:37

The reactions in FX markets to the upcoming Fed decision ensuing in the 2-6 hours following the announcements are often reversed in the next day. Considering that the FOMC announcement and the summary of economic projections are both due at 14:00 ET (19:00 BST), followed by Bernanke's press conference 30 mins later. Since the FOMC statement will be released simultaneously with the economic projections, there will be plenty of reasons/revelations to which the market will react. The FOMC statement will be scrutinized for qualitative changes (non-quantitative changes) such as an upgrade in the phraseology on labour markets, economic growth and price stability/inflation. The economic projections (quantitative) will provide more discernible means for comparing the Fed's outlook on GDP growth, inflation and unemployment. Due to the large potential for changes, upgrades and downgrades, markets have tremendous scope for interpretations (and misinterpretation), which means large sharp volatility in FX, commodities, bonds and equity indices. Any 30-40 pip moves from the initial FOMC announcement are highly likely to be reversed before matters stabilise into and during the Bernanke press conference. We have issued 3 new trades in EURUSD, 2 new in GBPUSD and 2 new in AUDUSD ahead of the FOMC decision/Fed economic projections (14:00 ET, 19:00 BST) and Bernanke conference (14:30 ET).


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