Intraday Market Thoughts

When Something Can’t Fall on Bad News…

by Adam Button
Mar 5, 2014 22:46

The US dollar shrugged off weak ADP and ISM data in an impressive showing. The Canadian dollar was the top performer after the BOC decision while the yen lagged.  

The US dollar had to contend with some weak figures and its resilience was impressive. ADP employment rose 139K compared to 160K expected and the previous reported was revised down by nearly 50K. The ISM non-manufacturing report slid to 51.6 compared to 53.5 with employment tumbling to 47.5 from 56.4.

The US dollar hardly budged despite the numbers and that reflects a few factors:

  1. The market is convinced the Fed's taper is on autopilot
  2. Traders want to wait-and-see NFP before drawing conclusions
  3. Weather
Despite all that, one of the most powerful signals is when a currency can overcome bad news.

It's impossible to get away from discussions about Mother Nature and the economy and the Beige Book mentioned weather 119 times.

The Bank of Canada decision gave the loonie a half-cent lift and CAD/JPY, in particular, is showing signs of a turnaround. Despite the currency optimism the BOC didn't paint a rosy picture. They essentially reiterated the outlook from January despite some upbeat numbers and officials will continue to watch the data.

The focus will stay on Canada and the US in Asian trading with the Fed's Fisher (0000 GMT) and Williams (0130 GMT) scheduled to speak. BOC #2 Macklem is sandwiched in at 0115 GMT. In China, the National People's Congress continues until March 13 and today, the finance minister is speaking at 0100 GMT.

Existing trades in the Premium Insights include EURUSD,  USDJPY,  GBPUSD,  AUDUSD ahead of tonight's Aussi retail sales;  USDCAD, NZDUSD and AUDCAD.  All these can be accessed in the Premium Insights.1 of 2 EURJPY is in progress ahead of Thursday's ECB decision and press conference.
Act Exp Prev GMT
ADP Employment Change
139K 160K 127K Mar 05 13:15
Retail Sales (JAN) (m/m)
0.5% 0.5% Mar 06 0:30
ISM Non-Manufacturing Employment
47.5 56.4 Mar 05 15:00
ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders
51.3 50.9 Mar 05 15:00
ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices
53.7 57.1 Mar 05 15:00

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