EURGBP & EURNZD
EURGBP rallies on the best of both worlds, propped by broad USD weakness (always a EUR-positive) and dovish comments from the Bank of England. But as USD stabilizes, EUR retreat vs. USD may be less than of GBP as ECB reviews whether it will continue its 12-month tenders in contrast to the BoE decision to expand QE. Improved oscillators in EURGBP and the testing of the 3-month trend line resistance will likely pave the way for an interim target of 0.9070, followed by 0.9150. EURNZD is seen gaining ground ahead of NZ retail sales tonight exp to weaken to 0.4% from 1.1%. And with RBNZ renewing its calls for NZD strength being a hindrance, broad NZD weakness would be among the first developments at the first sign of stocks pullback as Dow fails at the 50% retracement.
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Mar 17, 2023 21:28 | by Ashraf Laidi.
Ashraf
So many good calls you make this week on EURUSD this week!!!
Question please. I very confused about how to understand what is happening with EURGBP. Maybe I not understanding. You say EURGBP looks like it going to 0.96 and yet it also going down very fast. Does it look like it will go lower and should I short now?
Thank you,
Maria.
celtic, yes exactly. JPY and USD are being used interchangeably as funding currencies each time markets improve, but with Fed possibly sounding a little hawkish on inflation today, this could favour USD vs JPY, also relative to other pairs. Also watch ECB tender today, which i will mention in the IMT.
Ashraf
As it appears the yen has taken over the baton from the USD on the carry trade,
does this mean the yen will get sold v GBP and the EURO.
Would like your views when you have a minute.
Thanks
l notice that most on this forum are bullish on the euro, well purely from a fundemental point
of view, l feel that the euro will be reined in whether by manipulation or otherwise. Certain euro
countries will not get back on an even keel if the euro appreciates any further. From a personal
point of view Spain and particularly France horrendously expensive-republic of lreland-consumers
travel to northern lreland, where goods are far cheaper, l myself wait until l go to the uk to buy
major items, as do most of my friends, l'm talking treble. Although export numbers coming out of
Germany,France,Italy seem a little encouraging, the high euro must still be having a huge impact
on exports from the whole of euroland, not to mention housing and tourism. l feel something will
have to give, because prices are completely out of synch and that things will not really take off until
the euro comes back to earth.
I've been following you on CNBC last few days and appreciate the insight you provide. Would you please share your latest thoughts on the EURGBP for this week and advise on where you see this cross ending the year? Same time last year this cross was 800 pips higher in '08. Given the latest downtrend in EURGBP since Thanksgiving weekend, I feel like it's going lower. Is it time to short yet?
Please advise.
Most Respectfully,
Mojo.
Ashraf
Is there any reason to think EURGBP will go higher from here? It seems to be only making lower-highs in the last 12 weeks. Where is it headed in your opinion?
Kind Regards,
Stacy.
Ashraf
I think jtk either means BUYING puts for shorting oil...or shorting oil by selling the underlying derivative...
Asad