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CHF Backs USD Shorts

by Ashraf Laidi
Jan 4, 2010 18:34 | 13 Comments

CHF Backs USD Shorts - Usdchfjan410 (Chart 1)

USDCHF offered opportunities for range-bound traders seeking 1-2 day positions within the 1.0270-1.0390s territory since Dec 23. This point was raised since Dec 20 (beginning of winter break). While the current pattern may persist into the rest of this week, the weekly chart suggests fresh downside ahead as shown the slow stochastics and the failed high at 1.0507 trend line resistance. Although were not throwing the towel on our expectations for further gains in USD, this chart illustrates the CHF as our preferred currencies to buy against USD at the next round of USD selling. This also means USDCHF would be among the smallest gainers in time of advances in the greenback. Interim target stands at 1.0180, followed by 1.0130 and 1.0090. While any recovery is seen limited at 1.0365-70, aggressive shorts could allow stops for subsequent resistance at 1.0590s.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 13) View All Comments
rkkashmir
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 12, 2010 4:56
Ashraf,

it appears usd.chf has carved out a nice (shorrt-term) bottom here. It is actually continuing to make way, currently at 1.0185. To me this is another "ally" on the side of usd, as it is grinding higher while eur.usd remains stagnant at 1.4485.

At what point do you close the short, or is it like a paired-trade to short usd.chf while shorting either eur.usd or gbp.usd, an you don't leg out. Do you close both at the same time?
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 11, 2010 16:28
Ashraf-

Now that Usd/Jpy got destroyed and decimated and smashed through the TL 92.20 and will not close above this level, will you rescind your call for 93.50 later this week, and 95.00 overall?

At what point will you publicly announce you have thrown in the towel on usd/jpy long, eur/usd short, gbp/usd. Come on, it is not only OK, but ethical to disclose your positions in these pairs were all closed mid-last week.
zwan
qamishli, Syria
Posts: 25
15 years ago
Jan 10, 2010 22:07
thanks ashraf

you did not forget me . you are the best

thank you again

taslam , ana ahbak kteer kteer
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 14:45
mont, if you're referring to hints abouyt intervention, just follow the speeches from the various officials, including their new president. Look out for scheduled speeches in the Global Calendar and keep an eye open on bloomberg.com or Reuters if you have a Reuters Terminal.

Ashraf
montmorency
Abingdon, UK
Posts: 610
15 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 0:21
@Ashraf: where is the best place to get clues as to what SNB are up to, in addition to here of course?
Do you mean Bloomberg, etc? - Many thanks, M.
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 9, 2010 0:12
zwan, i spoke about GBPCHF last week predicting 1.64. we should test 1.63 but not right away. very volatile here. watch out from the SNB though.

Ashraf
zwan
qamishli, Syria
Posts: 25
15 years ago
Jan 8, 2010 22:39
thank you ashraf for you help anyone

your friend zwan
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Jan 6, 2010 19:06
Rob, SNB president was replaced and they dont find as much urgency in intervening right now. I said last month GBPCHF would retest those lows and that remains the case. EURCHF is less straight forward. Im bearish EURUSD, but not as much in EURCHF (support may reach 1.47). so still bearish EURUSD and selectively bearish USDCHF in the levels seen in the HOTCHART.

zwan, i see 1.6350.

Ashraf
Rob
New York, United States
Posts: 305
15 years ago
Jan 6, 2010 14:38
Hi Ashraf,

Do you expect EUR/CHF (and GBP/CHF) to fall along with USD /CHF? And do you think the SNB is finished with interventions?

Thnaks
zwan
Syria
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Jan 6, 2010 9:04
hi mr ashraf

can you give your opinion about GBP/CHF , will it break 1.6430 ???

thank you
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