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Capping Euro's Rebound

by Ashraf Laidi
Feb 9, 2010 19:52 | 52 Comments

Capping Euro's Rebound - Eurofeb910 (Chart 1)

Finally, EURUSD shows signs of life (albeit short-lived) starting with a sell-off prompted by an overall market after Fitch said UK was the most vulnerable AAA sovereign, only for EUR to rally back upon reports by German govt sources about EU nations agreeing in principle in rescuing Greece. EUR then fell off its $1.3839 high when those remarks were dismissed as unfounded rumours. TRADERS MUST BE AWARE that EURUSD has fallen for 4 consecutive weeksLONGEST LOSING STREAK SINCE exactly a year ago and EURUSD remains well in midst of two major down channels (see chart). $1.3855 held up successfully against todays German-driven rumours but more upside MAY emerge when the EU Summit is due tomorrow. Any Greece rescue will prompt traders to ask What about Portugal, Spain ? Subsequent barrier stands at $1.3950. $1.32 target remains intact. EURUSD shorts stuck in any corrective bounce consider short-term longs in EURJPY as was the case today. Such a dynamic is backed by an intermediate (temporary) bottom in USDJPY.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 52) View All Comments
Amiro
California, United States
Posts: 3
15 years ago
Feb 18, 2010 21:11
@Eelman @montmorency..thanks for the insights and the taking the time to respond
Magess
Selangor, Malaysia
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 18, 2010 5:27
Hello Mr Ashraf, do you think the Euro still possible go toward 1.4000 beside comment by father of Euro?
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 18, 2010 3:38
Ashraf-yes, i was aware Cohen had a different position. But I still like to rip GOLDman for her non-stop, never-ending "the U.S. economy is a supertanker, buy, Buy, BUY equities: mantra into the Dot.com bubble.

WShe cost many a good person a lot of money. That's why I joke that she was mothballed in a Witness Protection Program....
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
15 years ago
Feb 18, 2010 1:07
i was away from forum for about 3 days during which USD fell and gold rose and the questions + comments never stopped. yesterday i assured that EURUSD was well behaved after editing "confirming" latest EURUSD hot chart still within its resistance.

but do NOT get carried away jumping into deep shorts. always be nimble and try to be flat by end of day UNLESS of course your margin cushion is sufficient (use < 12-15% of your acct)



pipped off, interesting comments from Cohen. her role of Chief Startegist had been shifted to another role in GS investment committee some 5-6 yrs ago.


Ashraf
ykfx
Selangor, Malaysia
Posts: 1
15 years ago
Feb 18, 2010 0:15
WE ARE GOING TO 1.3400 FOR NOW.
Callum
Singapore, Singapore
Posts: 179
15 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 20:28
EUR/USD had a pretty muted reaction at the FOMC minutes release, either that was expected / normal or ccy pair already made its move ahead of the FOMC release. EUR/JPY rapidly moved back into the 124 levels again. Any likely-hood of EUR/USD breakout below 1.36 in the remaining NY trading session? Asian session I am guessing could bid it higher as it normally does?

@pippedoff, I am assuming you are saying that the those in power are able to bid markets higher this NY session, and likely to continue into the Asian session.
PippedOff
Canada
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 19:19
I am now waiting for CNBC and Abby Joseph GOLDman (sACHS) TO TELL ME THAT HIGHER INTEREST RATES ARE GOOD FOR STOCKS, BECAUSE THEY KEEP TELLING ME THAT LOWER INTEREST RATES ARE GOOD FOR STOCKS.

oF COURSE A WEAK USD IS GOOD FOR STOCKS, BUT THEN AGAIN THEY TELL ME A Stronger usd is good for stocks.

In a nutshell, everything is good for stocks and their 401(k)s lined with their parent company GE's stock!
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 19:11
1.34 for now
Pipster
birmingham, UK
Posts: 111
15 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 19:08
Hi Spec,

You mention the Eur could go lower this week. Do youhave a level/target in mind.

Ashraf mentioned his target is 1.32 bound. Do you know how long it will be before this happens. Has ashraf mentioned anythingo n the duration for the 1.32 level

Sorry to bombard you with the questions :)
speculator
Posted Anonymously
15 years ago
Feb 17, 2010 19:00
the euro may reach a new few low this week agaist the dollar. all the banks know the dollar is going to power this quarter.
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