Have USD Shorts Really Bottomed?
These charts could seem like the perfect set up for USD upside. It was about a month ago (week ending Mar 18) that USD net shorts bottomed at a 3 year low. Six weeks later, USDX hit a 3-year low thanks partly to a 500-pip decline in EURUSD. We've already argued the case against any considerable USD rebound on here.
Fake rebounds in USD (shown in blue squares) have emerged fairly quickly a few weeks after 2-3% recoveries. The extended decline in USD shorts and subsequent increase in net shorts since 2010 reflects the evident comfort with speculators' shorting of the USD and more importantly, the reality that USD net longs become overcrowded fairly quickly. Could this time be different that USD net shorts have emerged from the most in 3 years? The Greece story must be followed closely, but Fed dovishness isn't going anytime soon. Stay tuned in our Daily Premium "Intermarket Insights" for directional calls.
Jun 22, 2023 16:46 | by Ashraf LaidiI mentioned last week on here on how and why both gold and USD are falling together. Since then, the trend accelerated alongside another detail.
Mar 17, 2023 21:28 | by Ashraf Laidi.
Jan 11, 2023 10:57 | by Ashraf LaidiIf the DAX40 maintains its habit of extending 13% above its 200 DMA, then current upside may extend to as high as 15300, just below the 76% retracement of the decline from the Jan 2022 high to...