Consumer Confidence vs Stocks & Oil
US February Consumer confidence a hit a 12-month high of 70.80, proving yet again that consumer confidence indices (Conference Boards consumer confidence and Univ. of Michigans consumer sentiment survey) are more impacted by equities rather than price of gasoline. The chart below clearly illustrates that rising oil and gasoline prices have weighed on consumer confidence mainly via the intermediation of falling equities. But a rise in OIL PRICE ALONE DOES NOT necessarily WEIGH ON CONSUMERS without a retreat in equities. Rather, we must gauge oils behavior RELATIVE TO OTHER COMMODITIES (as seen in yesterdays charts http://ashraflaidi.com/products/sub01/access/?a=607 in order to determine the true impact on the economy. Those charts showed that only when US crude peaked relative to a basket of commodities did equities begin to falter.
Jun 22, 2023 16:46 | by Ashraf LaidiI mentioned last week on here on how and why both gold and USD are falling together. Since then, the trend accelerated alongside another detail.
Mar 17, 2023 21:28 | by Ashraf Laidi.
Jan 11, 2023 10:57 | by Ashraf LaidiIf the DAX40 maintains its habit of extending 13% above its 200 DMA, then current upside may extend to as high as 15300, just below the 76% retracement of the decline from the Jan 2022 high to...