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USDCAD CADJPY S&P500

by Ashraf Laidi
May 1, 2009 14:12 | 14 Comments

USDCAD CADJPY S&P500 - CAD Stocks May 1 (Chart 1)

The remarkable strengthening in the positive correlation between the Canadian dollar and equities shows no retreat. While the S&P500 faces no major technical barriers as far as moving averages except for the 200-day MA (stands as far as 965), both USDCAD and CADJPY are testing their own 200-day MAs. Interestingly though, the last time CADJPY was below its 200-day MA was in January 2008, compared to June 2008 for USDCAD. This means that CADs rise vs. USD has been more rapid than that against JPY, which reflects the weak performance of USDJPY. The chart below illustrates CAD vs USD (not USDCAD) to highlight the strong correlation with equities. Most strikingly, is that S&P500, CADJPY and USDCAD, each topped out within 5 days of each other in Oct-Nov 2007.

 

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Comments (Showing latest 10 of 14) View All Comments
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 4, 2009 18:45
Chartvuze, it looks overbought. Im staying away from it. Yes, we had higher highs and higher lows, but each body got smaller and we're nearing the end of an important 2-month cycle in equities. Im still short NZDJPY, which is the better selling alternative. AUDJPY is a sell.

Ashraf
Chartvuze
salisbury, UK
Posts: 18
16 years ago
May 4, 2009 18:27
Hi Ashraf

Whats your opinion on AUDJPN
Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 4, 2009 17:55
Hamish, just bear in mind we're in thin volumes and that there are plenty of downside risks with banks' capital inadequacy that make buying equities at these levels a very risky proposition. We have to CLOSE above 1.50 these next 2 days, and follow up above that by end of week.

Jim, depends how fast we get that 10-15% decline in stocks. if relatively fast, then we could see 1.23-1.24 in USDCAD, but not so pessimistic for AUDUSD ( i see no less than 70 cents on 15% drop in stocks). Also watch the RBA decision tomorrow. no rate cut would be great for Aussie. still a long term buy (so wait for next retreat and get some).

Taha, these current levels are a good way to start selling cable. 1.4970-1.5030.

Ashraf
taha
Cairo, Egypt
Posts: 50
16 years ago
May 4, 2009 17:26
Hi Ashraf ,
I would like to know IS it time to sell or buy Gbp vs Usd ? .
Taha
jim W
California , United States
Posted Anonymously
16 years ago
May 4, 2009 16:50
Ashraf, Do you see this as a bear rally? If risk aversion returns with a 10-15% sell-off of the S&P
what do you see as possible targets for USD/CAD,NOK,AUD? Also is your call for JPY at 80 still alive?
Thank You
hamish
vancouver, Canada
Posts: 26
16 years ago
May 4, 2009 16:43
Hi,Ashraf.....1. Any chance you could throw up hot chart S&P AUDUSD comparison?

2. Looks like the bulls have complete control & therefore I was wondering whether there is a deflecting point when USDGBP stops trending up with the S&P?

Thanks
Ashraf Laidi
London, UK
Posts: 0
16 years ago
May 4, 2009 0:53
Sun, USDCAD has been more correlated with stocks than EURJPY.

Chris, also keep an eye on the wage negotiations with South African gold miners' union and the price of gold.

Gary, I may go to Toronto this summer for seminars at our office there.

Ashraf
gary
toronto, Canada
Posts: 19
16 years ago
May 1, 2009 15:59
Ashraf

when is CAnada gonna start complaining about canadian dollar becoming too strongg?

and will you go to Canada for more seminars?


G
Chris
Cape Town, South Africa
Posts: 3
16 years ago
May 1, 2009 15:48
Hi Ashraf, you might be interested in this, although I'm aware not one of the major pairings. The USDZAR has been tracking the USDCAD exceptionally closely over last couple weeks, highly correlated with S&P500 and even brent crude. I'm not too sure what to make of it as ZAR and CAD have totally different fundamentals, except to say major rally in risk currencies.

Any thoughts?
Sun
New York, United States
Posts: 3
16 years ago
May 1, 2009 15:43
Ashraf - Excellent chart. Would be nice to see Euro-Yen superimposed on this chart.
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