NZD's Overshoot vs GBP?
NZDGBP (using the NZDGBP exchange rate instead of the more conventionally expressed GBPNZD due to charting issues with the latter) has proven to be highly correlated with risk appetite, including equity market sentiment. Since NZD has always commanded higher interest rates than GBP, extended rallies in NZD vs GBP have commonly occurred during run-ups in appetite, while turnarounds were usuallyu related to retrenchment in risk-seeking trades. Technically, the pair has failed to post a weekly close above 0.41-45 in 3 occasions over the last four years. Today, NZDGBP hit an all time high of 0.4172 (2.39 low in GBPNZD), reflecting a combination of rallying equities and prolonged GBP weakness. While the general fundamental picture remains GBP-negative, we could see an improvement in GBP vs NZD as the RBNZ issues more vocal concerns regarding excessive NZD strength.
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