EURGBP Revisited

You probably won't believe the chart below, but read on... Tuesday's Trump comments about being unconcerned about the dollar's decline after the currency dropped more than 17% in less than a year have added to the currency's decline. The unwritten rule in the US is that neither the president nor Fed chairman are supposed to speak about the US dollar. Only the US Secretary of the Treasury is allowed to make remarks on the value of the US dollar. So, expect Treas Scretary Scott Bessent to appear on TV today and say something along the lines of: "the stability and strength of the US dollar is not in question", which could give USD a slight boost. This reminds me of January 2018, when then US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin backed USD weakness, only to be reversed by Trump's USD-positive comments (see chart below). Interestingly, Trump's comments in late January 2018 (again see the chart) coincided wirh a multi-year rally in the US currency. I do not expect to see a multi-year or multi-month rally in the US currency for several reasons mentioned in my previous posts, videos etc.  In the short-term, USD is due for a bounce today, but a short-lived one. I still see EURUSD heading to 1.23.  The major event of the today is the Fed decision. Powell's press conference could well trigger a USD bounce and a pullback in metals.  There's also the issue of announcing the new Fed Chairman. Betting markets currently favour BlackRock's Rick Rieder to be the next Chair. He is seen as negative for the US dollar, but not as negative as Kevin Hassett. Careful from the 95 support on DXY and 151.20 trendline in USDJPY.