أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 09 أبريل 2013
Apr 9, 2013 15:28
Ashraf tells CNBC Arabia about the 5th consecutive daily rise in EURUSD—the longest series of advances since December as the balance of risks in FX shift from waning event risk in Eurozone to question markets about US growth. One key source of volatility is Wednesday's release of the FOMC minutes. Each of the last 3 FOMC minutes led to a rallying USD and tumbling gold. Selling USD bounces is part of the strategy, while 1.3150s is the anticipated cap in EURUSD. In our latest Premium Insights, we issued 3 new trades in EURUSD last night (Monday), 2 of which are currently in progress.
For all the trades on EURUSD, EURJPY, gold, silver and US crude, please see the latest Premium Insights here:http://ashraflaidi.com/premium
Risk trades initially cheered an unexpectedly strong non-farm payrolls report but the enthusiasm didn't last (More on the dynamics of market reaction and yesterday's key 6 charts below). Strong US data and recovering China PMIs helped affirm the paragdigm of stabilizing growth = USD weakness, which was anticipated in yesterday's NFP preview here. XAG, AUD, NZD are leading against the USD, while GBP and CHF lag. The US is on holiday, giving markets a chance to regroup. Monday's long DOW30 trade in the Premium Insights' hit its 26200 target yesterday for a 670-pt gain, while last week's Premium long in DAX at 12130 has yet to reach its final target of 12770, but Ashraf may close it before today's close.
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Strong US jobs & caveats
US June non-farm payrolls roundly beat expectations with 4.8m new jobs added compared to the 3.2m consensus. In addition, the prior two reports were revised modestly higher. Perhaps most impressive was the unemployment rate at 11.1% compared to 12.5% expected. The caveat that market participants had been watching surrounding that metric was in those absent from work for 'other reasons'. It had swelled recently and would have meant an additional 3 percentage point increase in May. The BLS highlighted that many of those probably belonged in the unemployed category were estimated at up to 3%. This month, they estimated that only 1 pp of them were likely miscategorized.