أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 11 سبتمبر 2013
Sep 11, 2013 15:51
Unlike previous episodes of pronounced strength when the currency was boosted by a general advance in risk-on dynamics (robust market optimism, improved growth in G5 and BRICS) the current phase of sterling rally is primarily driven by UK-specific factors across manufacturing, construction and services sectors. The marked improvement in labour markets fails to have any notable impact on wages but maintains market rates at 2-year highs.
Sterling is now the best performing currency among the 11 most actively traded currencies over the last 6 months, rising 5.8% against the US dollar, and hitting 4year highs against the yen.
The UK unemployment rate (ILO measure) fell to 7.7%, hitting its lowest level since November, which also matched the lows in April 2011, September 2009 and May 2009. The ONS' claimant count unemployment rate hit 4.2%, its lowest level since February 2009. Jobless claims fell by 32,600, marking the 10th straight monthly decline and accumulating a net decline of 177,000 in unemployment claims since November. But the 3-month average of weekly earnings fell to a 4-month low of 1.1% y/y from 2.2%.
Yields on 10-year gilts hit a fresh 2-year high at 3.05%, or 0.06% above their US counterparts, the highest differential in 6 months.
GBP also Boosted by Britain's Isolation
So far, the market implications of a strike on Syria have been generally binary; whereby a looming attack weighs on equities, risk currencies (primarily the euro) to the benefit of the US dollar. Sterling has been spared from the sell-off in risk currencies due to Britain's isolation from the crisis following the anti-strike vote in British Parliament. The positive impact on USD from a looming strike stems from the equities-currencies chain of reaction.
The coronavirus is increasingly drawing the attention of the financial markets and escalating headlines about infections are putting traders on edge. Chinese officials halted travel from Wuhan, locking down the city of 11 million people as they confront halting the spread of a new SARS-like virus that's already killed 17 and infected nearly 600 people. More below on how this compares to SARS in 2003. Aussie is the highest gainer on reduced expectations for an RBA rate cut next month after an unexpected decline in the jobless rate. Global indices are down across the board, oil extends its tumble, CAD fell sharply after the BoC issued a dovish hin, while JPY and bonds resume their ascent. The Premium trades in short oil and long cable are deepening in the green, while the EUR trades await the ECB's 500th ECB policy decision, due later today.