أشرف العايدي على سي ان بي سي العربية -- 11 سبتمبر 2013
Sep 11, 2013 15:51
Unlike previous episodes of pronounced strength when the currency was boosted by a general advance in risk-on dynamics (robust market optimism, improved growth in G5 and BRICS) the current phase of sterling rally is primarily driven by UK-specific factors across manufacturing, construction and services sectors. The marked improvement in labour markets fails to have any notable impact on wages but maintains market rates at 2-year highs.
Sterling is now the best performing currency among the 11 most actively traded currencies over the last 6 months, rising 5.8% against the US dollar, and hitting 4year highs against the yen.
The UK unemployment rate (ILO measure) fell to 7.7%, hitting its lowest level since November, which also matched the lows in April 2011, September 2009 and May 2009. The ONS' claimant count unemployment rate hit 4.2%, its lowest level since February 2009. Jobless claims fell by 32,600, marking the 10th straight monthly decline and accumulating a net decline of 177,000 in unemployment claims since November. But the 3-month average of weekly earnings fell to a 4-month low of 1.1% y/y from 2.2%.
Yields on 10-year gilts hit a fresh 2-year high at 3.05%, or 0.06% above their US counterparts, the highest differential in 6 months.
GBP also Boosted by Britain's Isolation
So far, the market implications of a strike on Syria have been generally binary; whereby a looming attack weighs on equities, risk currencies (primarily the euro) to the benefit of the US dollar. Sterling has been spared from the sell-off in risk currencies due to Britain's isolation from the crisis following the anti-strike vote in British Parliament. The positive impact on USD from a looming strike stems from the equities-currencies chain of reaction.
Here is a DM sent via Twittter to select clients on Monday, alerting them of the upcoming DOW30 trade. The trade was issued to all Premium subscribers later that afternoon via email, Twitter, SMS and Telegram to (Arabic clients). Have a nice weekend.
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