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  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf at XTB this afternoon

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 14, 2016 14:00
    This afternoon, Ashraf will hold an interactive presentation at XTB's....nbsp;....DIRECTIONS.

  • Intraday Market Thought: May Plots Delay, Fed Plots Lower Dots

    by Adam Button | Mar 20, 2019 12:40
    May Plots Delay, Fed Plots Lower Dots Chart Indices are finally coming off their lofty highs...Pivotal trade deals between the US & China along with the UK & EU are....CHF is the strongest currency of the day (our USDCHF short remains intact)....The Fed statement & dot plot forecast are at 14:00 New York, 18:00....Last night, a new Premium trade was issued (currently 40 pts in the green)....An additional trade will be issued ahead of the London close...Politics have been a more dominant force in G10 FX in the past two years than....A report on Tuesday said China was walking back some of its trade offers in....Markets reeled and the S&P 500 gave up its gains...At the same time, Lighthizer and Mnuchin revealed plans to travel China next....Enforcement remains a key hurdle and there's no doubt that the final....That's why it's worrisome that markets are pricing in a +90% chance of....That number might be right but the near-term risk is much more skewed toward....The story is flipped around Brexit with the market continuing to assign a low....That's understandable given the endless backstabbing in UK politics...The latest example is a report saying Conservative Euroskeptic MPs had been....That's something we've repeatedly warned about and it will come....Cable remains non-committal but it will undoubtedly make a large move once the....At the moment, neither the ERG nor the DUP wants to be the first to commit to....In the day ahead, USD risks rise with the Federal Reserve decision...It includes new forecasts, a dot plot and a press conference and is also....Look for a slight downgrade to growth in the statement from 'strong' to....The market buzz is for the Fed to move down to a only one more hike (either....If anything, the FOMC is likely to disappoint with a more-hawkish path as a....If so, the dollar could nudge higher, albeit the stakes are lower than most..

  • Hot-Chart: Trusting Inv H&S Formation Beyond the Weekend

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 2, 2019 20:21
    Some subscribers complained that last Tuesday's Premium trade (Aug 27)....The trade is currently about +300 pts in the green...We decided to risk sticking to the trade into the weekend, while cautioning in....As in all other Premium trades, there is technical and fundamental rationale..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Quadrifecta of Bottom Anniversary

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 24, 2022 18:14
    Quadrifecta of Bottom Anniversary Chart Two years to the day (minus one day) of the market bottom and strange things....Also strange because Mexico's president leaked a rate hike of his....Metals shot up on NATO's warning against possible nuclear accidents from....Indices dropped rapidly before regaining lost ground, leading to a unique....Any explanations on how/why?....Fans of the “why” could look at no further than breakevens, which....This is generally good news for metals and indices...As Gold/Silver ratio drops back to its 200-DMA, watch for a possible breakout....00...nbsp;....Meanwhile, both Ethereum and Bitcoin are doing nicely, but with ETH/BTC....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Theresa May Running the Clock

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 22, 2019 11:40
    Theresa May Running the Clock Chart Could PM Theresa May be running the clock to trigger a Brexit delay? A....More delay would increase chances of Parliament to push for a 2nd referendum....And with regards to the backstop (the main sticking point opposed by the DUP)....If the EU and May agree on such a deal, both the DUP and the Eurosceptic ERG....The Premium video highlighting last night's trade is posted below...On Friday, the Long DOW Premium trade hit its final target of 24630 from the....No Index trades are currently open...Stronger than expected UK earnings data (3...4% from 3...3% y/y) and a drop in Nov unemployment to 3...9% from 4...0% have also helped the pound...Germany's ZEW current situation index dropped to 27...6 in January from 45...3...US new home sales are due at 10:00 Eastern (15:00 GMT/London)....The ECB decision/press conference are due on Thursday.

  • Intraday Market Thought: DOW30's Intraday Inflection Points

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 11, 2020 19:18
    DOW30's Intraday Inflection Points Chart Many say our Premium trades are far too long term...But here's an example of what we did in the existing DOW30 Premium trade....Just for some background, DOW30 hit the low at 27190s a few nights ago and the....Today, we told our WhatsApp Broadcast Group at around 11 am London (ahead of....The chart below went out to the WBG 30 mins before the cash open...nbsp;Ultimately, the market did exactly that (peaked at 27830s and bottomed at....It does not matter whether the day's ranges were only 270 pts or 850 pts...What matters is that we alerted members the timing of the inflection points...nbsp; The other charts consists of the messages to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group...Don't forget Thursday's low occured around 8 pm London, similar to....It all looks easy after the fact...Next week will be tricky...Sample of today's messages to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group.

  • Intraday Market Thought: BreakEvens Cool off with Metals

    by Adam Button | Feb 11, 2021 19:20
    BreakEvens Cool off with Metals Chart Just as inflation searches rose on Google, nominal yields pushed up faster....Ashraf showed this in today's tweet below...He also warned the WhatsApp Broadcast Group late Wednesday on the next round....Recent inflation fears – including from Powell's former colleague....DOW30 and SPX attempt at holding support at 31240 and 3882 respectively...More levels below from Ashraf...Profi-taking ensues in indices ahead of a light trading week after Wednesday....Up first was the US CPI report and it showed core inflation flat in January....2% rise expected...Headline inflation as also below consensus at 1...4% y/y vs 1...5% expected...The market reaction showed that traders are focusing in on inflation...The dollar dropped across the board on the headlines, sending the commodity....Powell speech took criticisms head on, saying that estimating output gaps is a....nbsp; He also left little doubt where he stands on rates and tapering, saying....quot; The comments initially lifted stocks and weighed on Treasury yields....What was mildly concerning was that low inflation and dovish comments ultimately....If a market can't move higher on good news, it's vulnerable...There was also some tension built up when former NY Fed President Bill Dudley....Lets focus on the aforementioned levels for indices, while XAUUSD tries to hold....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: May Marches In

    by Adam Button | May 3, 2021 13:17
    Risk trades to a step back to end April but it was a strong month overall...We will have a look at May seasonal patterns...The Canadian dollar was the top performer last week while the yen lagged...CFTC positioning data showed the market slowly warming up to CAD...Last week's Premium trade is in the green and Friday's FX trade to the....Today is a Bank holiday in the UK, but will be a BUSY WEEK for GBP with the....US ISM manufacturing is next, followed by a Powell speech...nbsp;....Economic data continued to point to economic strength on Friday as the....1% in March on stimulus payments...Month end flows may have led to some profit taking but a study showing a....The new month kicks off with some strong seasonal patterns...Cable is a particularly notable one – it's fallen in May for 11....We may have seen some front-running of that with Friday's drop down to 1...3810...Another theme is dollar strength...At the start of the year, everyone was a dollar bear and that turned out to be a....The dollar gave back some ground in April but May has been the best month....On the soft side, it's the second-worst month for the kiwi...For equities the traditional 'sell in May and go away' doesn't hold....The S&P 500 has risen in May in 7 of the past 8 years...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +81K vs +81K prior...GBP +29K vs +25K prior...JPY -49K vs -60K prior...CHF -1K vs +2K prior...CAD +16K vs +13K prior...AUD -1K vs -2K prior...NZD +7K vs +4K..

  • Intraday Market Thought: New Supply is Coming Home

    by Adam Button | Jul 12, 2021 14:21
    New Supply is Coming Home Chart Is new bond supply coming come? First of all, big congratulations to our Italian....The bond market spooked everything else last week but once the fever broke, risk....That's created a tentative truce but with 3 and 10-year Treasury auctions on....The US dollar starts the week on a high note, stronger against all major....The yen was the top performer last week while the Canadian dollar led the way...nbsp;....It will be a slow start to the week in G10 FX on account of a multitude of....nbsp;....The economic calendar is generous to football fans with little on the agenda....The event to watch will be the 1300 GMT sale of 10-year notes...One of the theories about the drop in yields last week was a lack of new....That will be relieved with $38B on sale in a reopening followed by $24B in 30s....Recent sales have been strong but that was +15 bps ago...Whether it's lower or higher yields, expect the sale to set the tone for....The other move that caught markets off guard last week was China's cut to....To be sure, officials foreshadowed the move but most China-watchers thought....For the real economy, a sooner move and one that delivers it to all banks....The risk is that it hints at panic or an economy that's slowing too quickly...So far the market reaction has ben positive but the Chinese consumer has....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Cyclicals, Inflation Hedges & Cardano

    by Adam Button | Aug 13, 2021 11:25
    Cyclicals, Inflation Hedges & Cardano Chart Markets are set for a quiet end to the week with SPX and DOW closing at new....A strong US PPI reading helped to lift the US dollar on Thursday, highlighting....The consumer will be in the spotlight Friday with the UMich consumer sentiment....Below is the latest sign of Cardano's resilience against Ethereum as ADA/USD....00...Ashraf has constantly pointed out over the past 6 weeks how Cardano contine to....nbsp;....The latest trade in global appears to be based on the belief that inflation is....What's tricky about the trade is that no one knows what's coming next...Both the inflation and covid puzzles will take months to sort out and market....On Wednesday, the US dollar sold off on flat CPI number but on Thursday it....8% compared to 7...3% expected...Core producer prices were similarly strong...That ebb and flow is likely to be a microcosm of trading in the next year...The multitude of potential skews in pricing data makes it challenging to....CPI showed that auto prices are topping but how much of the gains they give back....Keep in mind that markets aren't just pricing in 2% vs 3...5% inflation or when those levels will be reached...The market has little reason to fear an overshoot in prices...The real risk is that a wage-price spiral puts the Fed behind the curve and....To be sure, that's a tail risk but given new highs in US equities, it&....Looking ahead, the UMich consumer sentiment survey will offer some insight....They survey includes 1-year and 5-10 year views on prices and if those shift..
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