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Results: 181 to 190 of 1,000
Results: 181 to 190 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Watch the 2023 Dots
by Adam Button | Jun 16, 2021 15:03All eyes are on this evening's FOMC decision/forecasts/press conference...Tuesday's soft US retail sales report was one more reason for the Fed....NZD and AUD are the top performers, while CHF and EUR are the weakest of the....Canadian CPI y/y edge up over expectations but CAD remains unchanged...Comments from BoC's Macklem will also be in focus on Fed day...To understand what this downward-heading chart of the Goldbugs ratio means, ....US retail sales fell 1...3% in May, well shy of the -0...8% expected but the headline didn't tell the whole story...The prior was revised to +0...9% from 0...0% and that left the overall sales numbers close to expectations...It was a similar story in the control group, where a big revision higher....The Fed will note the slowing trajectory though and mixed signals from the....Spending is shifting towards restaurants and travel from durables and home....The overall pace of spending is still high but that's just after some large....The main factor for the Fed is jobs...Disappointing readings on the past two jobs reports weighed heavily on yields....Expectations for a direct hint to tapering are low...Powell is also likely to push back the timeline for taper discussions to August....One market mover is likely to be the dot plot...The current median forecast is for no hikes in 2023 but we could see a shift....The prior dots showed 11 forecasting no 2023 move and 7 forecasting a hike...If there's a shift it would boost the US dollar but risks are two way: some of....Part of the reaction will depend on how well Powell navigates questions about....He's sure to point to transitory factors and bottlenecks, while also adding a....Lately, that messages has resonated with markets and bond yields have fallen but....Also in focus is BoC's Macklem speech at 2230 GMT, where he's more....Lately the loonie hasn't responded to higher oil prices but if the climb.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Powell Possibilities
by Adam Button | Aug 27, 2021 13:02
The week-long build up to Powell's Jackson Hole speech will come to an end....There was some trepidation in risk assets on Thursday ahead of the speech....We break down what to watch for...All major currencies have gained back ground vs USD with the exception of JPY...Keep an eye for the release of US core PCE price index in less 30 mins from now...Exp 3...5% from 3...6%....One thing is certian: Powell's address will not be a game-changer...This speech is wildly overhyped because nothing else is happening and because....None of the underlying fundamentals of the market are going to change on Friday....That said, here is what to watch out for...1) Acknowledging delta will slow the recovery...At the July 28 FOMC press conference, Powell brushed aside delta, saying it....By simply acknowledging that it will be a drag on Q3 (some banks have cut Q3 GDP....2) The caveat could be that lost growth will materialize later....Delta may simply push the Q3 recovery trade back by a quarter...On its own, that wouldn't worry the Fed...If Powell strongly emphasizes that line of thinking, then it will be seen as a....The caveat to the caveat is that if he points out that delta and other variants....3) Inflation and bottlenecks....The message at the July 28 FOMC and since then has been that bottlenecks and....This theme is no longer at the top of markets' minds, but if Powell....At the same time, his personal view remains that price pressures are....Finally, Powell's overall tone will be important...If he converys a message that Fed will support the recovery and is in no rush....At the same time, Powell isn't going to tip his hand on the Sept FOMC yet...There's plenty of data to come and he likely intends to take his time....All that argues for focusing on continued improvements in the virus....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Demand Destruction or Delay?
by Adam Button | Sep 13, 2021 12:52
The week ahead starts quietly but the main highlight comes on Tuesday with the....Many economists believe this report could show the crest in pricing....US president Biden does not need US US inflation to be come the latest "....At the confluence of consumer-demand, covid-shutdowns and the supply....Hardly a Fed speech passes without a reference to the 45% y/y jump in used....New auto sales also spiked during the pandemic and were on track for their....As inventories were depleted, consumers slowly lost the ability to negotiate....If you arrive at a car lot today in the US, you'll almost certainly pay full....If not, the next customer through the door will...Naturally, this continues to put pressure on auto prices but,....That drop – and similar declines in other durable goods – will be a....The question beyond that is whether the demand for those cars has been destroyed....Moreover, at what prices will those transactions take place...Naturally, that's a sliding scale but for the Fed, the answer is clear:....That makes perfect sense because if they believed prices were going to stay flat....So we're seeing a real life example of how inflation expectations are....It will be crucial to watch the industry and how pricing evolves...In an extremely competitive industry like autos, with spare manufacturing....Yet, the longer the shortages last, the more that's jeopardized...More broadly, not every industry is as competitive as autos...In other industries where there are shortages, companies may try to boost....In short, inflation is perhaps the most-difficult economic force to predict,....There are plenty of good reasons to expect a higher inflation regime and....The answer will be in the data and the automotive industry is the single best..
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Intraday Market Thought: Reality Bites GBP, Team Transitory Feels Heat
by Adam Button | Sep 29, 2021 5:09
Stocks took a fresh hit after a Powell-Yellen double warning on US govt credit....from twin warning from The growing energy and supply chain problems are....The British pound is the biggest loser of the week so far after BoE's....Sterling's damage came 24 hrs after the long EURGBP trade was issued to the....nbsp; Ashraf is in Dubai this week, so feel free to stop by the Orbex....Central banks around the world adjusted mandates last year to tolerate inflation....Like a bad trader, they might have tossed out the old playbook at the worst....Supply chain bottlenecks, commodity prices rises and the inability to find....With energy curbs now hitting China and potentially India, the resulting....In any case, the timeline for a return to a 'normal' economic....Moreover, while many economists are fretting about current bottlenecks, we&....The natural reaction will be for companies to build higher-than-usual....This week, BoE's Bailey offered a nod to that thinking...While he offered the usual nod to Team Transitory, the message is beginning to....ldquo;Our view is that the price pressures will be transient,” he....On persistently higher prices, he said “I take this risk very seriously...rdquo;....In the US, the Fed's Williams repeated much of what Powell said but....These are starting to sound like a slow climbdown on inflation, or at least a....This debate won't be settled any time soon but rising yields and....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Trump & Johnson Ready for NO-deals
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 12, 2019 14:05
Both Trump and Johnson are threatening (or readying) for a no-deal with China....So two things you need to know if you're trading any of our existing....More below...With regards to Trump, he announced that he's personally blocking a trade....ldquo;It's me right now that's holding up the deal” Trump said....Another important thing that augurs badly for markets: Trump threatened to....The last thing you'd want to do to a Chinese person is to threaten him....For an American leader to hint at humiliating China's head-of-state at....As for Boris Johnson, he unveiled his campaign for PM by saying that a no-deal....Meanwhile, Labour, backed by the LibDems and Scottish National party will set up....If this process advances successfully, all pledges by Tory leadership....The vote on this cross-party motion will he held at about 11:00 Eastern (16:00....GBPUSD tests last week's 3-week high of 1...3763 as it attempt to complete its first back-to-back weekly gain since March...Alot of work is yet needed for sterling bulls, but so far the foundation looks....Our Premium long cable is currently +150 pips in the green.
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Intraday Market Thought: 3850 11690 31220 and the rest
by Ashraf Laidi | May 13, 2022 20:03
Traders reap the value of intermarket technical/quantitative analysis in....Such levels can be support/resistance in terms of TA, or moves in material....So during Thursday's market carnage (equity indices and cryptos), I sent....It's all about confluence across different asset classes...Here's how...nbsp;....In Thursday's case, as S&P500 fell to 3928, I highlighted 3840/50 as....I added the 11720/50 level for Nasdaq100 as the -30% threshold and 31400 in the....Identifying the levels in these 3 charts served as a warning—even as those....Considering the correlation between cyptos and risk-assets, I highlighted....nbsp;....Towards the end of Thursday's US session, markets sustained a fresh risk-....The levels were in line with the points highlighted in the charts as it was for....The sole exception was gold, which ended up breaking the $1830 trendline and is....nbsp;....As time of writing (Friday 18:50 London time), indices are up more than 3% for....5% for value and are about to deliver the first Up-Friday session since March....The next challenge is where do we mark the top in this bear market rally? ....The term “intermarket analysis” is so widespread to the extent of....15 years ago this month, I began writing “Currency Trading and Intermarket....More on those 12 months in another post...The book had a currency angle, but could have been more effective if it showed....Over the last 10 years, I deepened my involvement in markets, studying and....The above charts illustrate how it's put to use...nbsp;....So how do you trade all of this? ....Become a member of our WhatsApp Broacast Group...nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Video on Post-Fed Gold & USDCAD
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 19, 2017 18:31
We pick up where I left off last week's gold video following the metal'....We also tackle the USD/CAD pair and the potential for further 2-way price action....Full Video.
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Intraday Market Thought: See you in New York Next Week
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 1, 2019 18:09
A few major market events are expected in mid-March...Brexit-related votes, the Fed meeting and the US det ceiling...And don't forget this year's New York Traders' Expo in NYC - March....It's one of the longest running expos on trading around and a great....I strongly encourage you to reserve your free seat, and join me at the ultimate....Full Program...In case you can't make it to NY, here's the link to the Live..
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Intraday Market Thought: 5 Things on Gold & Yields before more Powell
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 26, 2021 21:20
Friday's plunge in yields was just as notable as the preceding gains...As Fed chair Powell gears to speak next Thursday about the economy, here are the....nbsp;3) Friday's candles in 2 and 10 year yields suggest neutral-negative....4) USDJPY knived through its 200-DMA and its 55-WMA, calling for 107...20 as a short-term target...Our WhatsApp Broadcast Group entered this pair back in 104...60s...nbsp;5) Those who trade indices have seen the balant manner in which the jump....We were active throughout the week with our WhatsApp Broadcast Group (WBG)....Tune in for more next week...This is far from over...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: What if Parliament Votes No?
by Adam Button | Oct 18, 2019 18:00
Obtaining the required 320 votes to back Saturday's passing of the Brexit....If the deal passes, we expect gaps in cable to as high as 1...3180s...How about if Parliament rejects the deal? Will it depend on the margin of defeat?....More on the necessary numbers in here...As I write this, GBPUSD has spiked 0...3% to 1...2932 on reports that the Brexit deal will be passed tomorrow...لا تفوت هذه الإشارات السبع (فيديو للمشتركين - خاص قبل عطلة نهاية الأسبوع)....Boris Johnson's strategy is to turn Saturday's meaningful Brexit vote....The Benn amendment took away his ability to execute a no-deal Brexit so he has....If he convinces the EU to reject a Brexit extension in case of a "No&....But it's all a bluff...Merkel, Macron and other EU officials have said time and time again that the....Juncker tried to create some ambiguity and it seems to have had some effect on....It's not a choice of this deal or no deal...It's a choice of this deal, or extend...Depending on the extension, there's a chance that elections and 2nd....The DUP appears to believe it can get a better deal...The leadership Thursday said 'this isn't even the beginning of the end&....There is also the question of whether there is time for a legal text and....So what happens next?....In the event of a "No" outcome, an election remains the most-likely....The problem for opposition parties is that it looks like they will lose and....With a larger majority, he could easily pass this deal and may even try to press....Labour has sensed this and they're having second thoughts about pushing for....They were banking on Johnson not being able to get any changes to May's....Instead, he's got a fresh deal and he can now blame Labour and others for....With that, Labour may be shifting strategies towards calling for a new....Corbyn isn't yet comfortable with it but it's more likely than a week....What about the market? A deal failing to get through parliament will weigh on....If there is a dip or a drop, it's likely an opportunity to buy...The important thing this week is not that the DUP is against the deal, but....When it passes is probably only a matter of time...A GBPUSD Premium trade is currently open with supporting charts and notes...The risk is that Labour and the LibDems somehow force a fresh referendum...That would add considerable fresh uncertainty and a deeper dip...But ultimately it's a win-win for the pound in that either the UK stays in......
