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  • Intraday Market Thought: Powell's Challenge

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 13, 2023 12:55
    Powell's Challenge Chart At today's FOMC decision, Fed chair Powell's primary intention and....Powell's ability to convince markets will primarily depend on the interplay....nbsp;....New vs September DotPlot for 2024 ....The current median of Fed members' FedFunds expectations issued in....1%, meaning policymakers were pricing about one rate cut for 2024...Today's meeting is expected by economists and strategists not the....9%, meaning two rate cuts of 25-bps by end of 2024...nbsp; Again, the market (fed funds futures) are currently pricing between....nbsp;What to Watch....The initial market reaction at 2:00 pm Eastern (7pm GMT, 11 pm Dubai) will....Anything between 4...8% and 5...0% (two rate cuts) is expected by the consensus of strategists and economists....Anything between 4...6% and 4...7% (three to four rate cuts) would be deemed dovish, particularly dovish....6%....nbsp;....Subsequent market reaction will shift to SEPs on growth and inflation, with each....Once again, Powell's challenge will be to push back against aggressive....nbsp;....About the Above Chart...The chart above shows the non-surprising relationship between the probability of....The current -0...45% -- indicating a 45% chance of a 25-bp cut-- is much less than the 75%....Watching the real-time development of this probability pricing will be crucial....nbsp;....Another thing (not on the chart) is that Bitcoin also peaked at the bottom of....nbsp;....Good luck to eveyone, and dont forget Thursday's BoE decision, especially....Once that's done, we move to the unimportant ECB decision before next....nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: 3 Faces of $2000 Gold

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 24, 2023 16:38
    3 Faces of $2000 Gold Chart As gold regains $2000/oz for the third time over the past three years, it's....There are endless combinations of metrics to be used in comparing August....I will use the DXY, gold/silver ratio, Fed Funds rate and the Fed's Balance....AUGUST 2020 : Gold's first print of $2000/oz occurred on 28th Jul....The dynamics were plenty and ideal...The +$10 trillion governmental stimulus response to combat Covid-19 was three....Any signs of USD-liquidity crisis was swiftly suppressed...The Fed crushed interest rates back to zero and sent its balance sheet doubling....2 trillion in under five months...nbsp;....The combination of exploding financial liquidity, force majeure fears and....Gold bugs did not blink, hitting a new record of $2075 on Friday, August 7th....nbsp;....MARCH 2022: Gold's ascent to $2000 in March 2022 was the product of an....Unlike the central bank liquidity creation and government stimuli of 2020,....It was the first time in over four decades, when the classic macro....nbsp;....How we called Gold's peak 1 day before the $2075 Top of 2020 Watch Video...MARCH 2023: Gold's rally of late 2022 emerged on the Fed's slowing....Growing signs of stress in US treasury markets, coupled with the 2nd biggest US....And if that keeps inflation above 3...0%, then it's a new normal for gold bulls...nbsp;....For the first time since March 2020, the Fed Funds rate is now above Fed's....Emerging signs of real positive rates and unflattening of the US yield curve....nbsp;....Regardless of whether SVB's was a case of poor asset-duration mismatch, or....Add to it the Fed's attempt to keep some semblance of quantitaive tightening....That's how it was in summer 2019 and that's how it will be late this....nbsp;....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: BOC To Set the Tone Again

    by Adam Button | Jun 9, 2021 14:18
    BOC To Set the Tone Again Chart The April Bank of Canada decision kicked off a round of speculation about....GBP is weakest currency of the lot and the only decliner vs USD amid....Yesterday's Premium trade is already +30 pips in the green...The Bank of Canada interest rate decision is at 1400 GMT (10 am ET)....There's universal consensus that the overnight rate will be left at 0...25% and there is no press conference afterwards...The only communication we will be getting is the press release and given....The main reason none expects another hawkish surprise is due to the fact that....Both the market and the BOC will want to see how the economy looks in the....One portion of the statement that could reverberate is on inflation...The latest BOC statement said “inflation is expected to rise....rdquo;....The world 'around' gives them some leeway but the April number was....4% y/y and prices have continued to rise so the BOC could alter that slightly to....They could simultaneously neutralize that shift by continuing to emphasized....The overall message would the be dovish as they underline temporary inflation....That's the same message the bond market is sending with US 10-year yields....6 bps on Tuesday to 1...53% -- the lowest close since mid-March...Thursday's US CPI report will be another big challenge but if the market..

  • Intraday Market Thought: GBP & Anti-Consensus PM Play

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 24, 2019 17:07
    What will change in GBP after PM Theresa May's resignation announcement? Why....Article.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Everybody Loves Silver

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 19, 2019 10:56
    Gold and silver are unsurprisngly getting much attention now, and....Here's an FT piece quoting me about the "Mint Ratio" from a while....Useful to compare & contrast with today's case...Link..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf & Adam on the Markets

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 13, 2019 21:47
    Ashraf Laidi and Adam Button met in London, discussing a few topics, ranging....Full video.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Election Anxiety, Virus Reality

    by Adam Button | Sep 25, 2020 19:15
    Election Anxiety, Virus Reality Chart Trump's comments suggesting he could dispute the election have put a range....Surging cases in Europe are weighing on the area's indices (DAX tumbling 5%....Biden's presidential election polling average fell 0...2 pts from the prior day, while Trump's rose 0...1 pt over the same period...nbsp; Silver and gold have pushed back up, while Aussie and franc have lagged...Is the USD's ascent finished? Will the March trendline resistance hold....60? Will gold maintain support at the 100-DMA?  It's all in this....nbsp;....If you're going to panic, it's always better to panic early than to....A clear picture of US election night is beginning to take shape...Trump is trailing in the polls but certainly not out of the race and no one....Polls show the far more voters than in 2016 are already in the 'decided'....The nightmare scenario is that on election night Trump appears to hold a....Given his recent comments, Trump will undoubtedly dispute the election...Even if he loses on election night there's a good chance he disputes it...Along with that, it's looking increasingly likely that we will have....The question then is: How much risk and volatility can you tolerate in the lead....None of this is particularly new but with just over five weeks to go until....It's left traders – particularly equity traders –....News that brokers have cut leverage is making it an easier decision...As for FX, the recent declines in commodity currencies along with a number....Watch Ashraf's Premium video above for the latest on the intermarket....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yen Tracking Yield Spreads again?

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 30, 2023 17:08
    Yen Tracking Yield Spreads again? Chart During yesterday's sleepy markets, I highlighted in this tweet the rally in....Today's bond price action did not disappoint, as the homogenous asset....This was a desperately needed development for yen bulls (particularly....nbsp;Interpret what you wish from the chart below as to which is the dependent....Who leads whom?  Shorting USDJPY has been the "pain trade" for....Hanging in there...nbsp;....nbsp;  ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: October Bitcoin

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 24, 2023 13:45
    October Bitcoin Chart What is it about Bitcoin and these October dates? Bitcoin soared in October....October 2021 and 2023 were related to the ETF (see the Chart below)....Whether the Blackrock's Bitcoin ETF gets approved this week or next month,....The Big Kahunas of Larry Fink's circle of friends are busy accumulating....This would be the equivalent of companies and underwriting banks....Regardless of post-announcement profit-taking, the next wave of buying will....The Inverted H&S target of $35k remains as the must-break barrier...nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Energy Shadows Apple

    by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 18, 2020 19:23
    Energy Shadows Apple Chart As US indices post their biggest daily decline in over a week following Apple&....Over the last 6 months, Apple's rise made up 810 pts or 23% of the DOW30'....As we speak, Apple pared down its day's losses from 4% to 2% and ironically,....Utilities were the best performing sector of the day and the 2nd highest....For a defensive sector such as utilities to have a robust performance at a time....If history is any guide, Apple's selloff will last for at least 4-5 weeks...More of that is discussed in today's video Premium subscribers.
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