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Results: 191 to 200 of 1,000
Results: 191 to 200 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: What if Parliament Votes No?
by Adam Button | Oct 18, 2019 18:00
Obtaining the required 320 votes to back Saturday's passing of the Brexit....If the deal passes, we expect gaps in cable to as high as 1...3180s...How about if Parliament rejects the deal? Will it depend on the margin of defeat?....More on the necessary numbers in here...As I write this, GBPUSD has spiked 0...3% to 1...2932 on reports that the Brexit deal will be passed tomorrow...لا تفوت هذه الإشارات السبع (فيديو للمشتركين - خاص قبل عطلة نهاية الأسبوع)....Boris Johnson's strategy is to turn Saturday's meaningful Brexit vote....The Benn amendment took away his ability to execute a no-deal Brexit so he has....If he convinces the EU to reject a Brexit extension in case of a "No&....But it's all a bluff...Merkel, Macron and other EU officials have said time and time again that the....Juncker tried to create some ambiguity and it seems to have had some effect on....It's not a choice of this deal or no deal...It's a choice of this deal, or extend...Depending on the extension, there's a chance that elections and 2nd....The DUP appears to believe it can get a better deal...The leadership Thursday said 'this isn't even the beginning of the end&....There is also the question of whether there is time for a legal text and....So what happens next?....In the event of a "No" outcome, an election remains the most-likely....The problem for opposition parties is that it looks like they will lose and....With a larger majority, he could easily pass this deal and may even try to press....Labour has sensed this and they're having second thoughts about pushing for....They were banking on Johnson not being able to get any changes to May's....Instead, he's got a fresh deal and he can now blame Labour and others for....With that, Labour may be shifting strategies towards calling for a new....Corbyn isn't yet comfortable with it but it's more likely than a week....What about the market? A deal failing to get through parliament will weigh on....If there is a dip or a drop, it's likely an opportunity to buy...The important thing this week is not that the DUP is against the deal, but....When it passes is probably only a matter of time...A GBPUSD Premium trade is currently open with supporting charts and notes...The risk is that Labour and the LibDems somehow force a fresh referendum...That would add considerable fresh uncertainty and a deeper dip...But ultimately it's a win-win for the pound in that either the UK stays in......
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Intraday Market Thought: Heightened Anticipation
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 10, 2021 19:32
The heightened anticipation ahead of this week's crucial FOMC, BoE and....USDJPY is unable to break above 114, EURUSD rests above 1...12 but is capped at 1...14, while XAUUSD is immobile in the 1770/90 wedge and XAGUSD continue to hold 22...0...Only one FX cross has broken out, which we pointed out to our WhatsApp Broadcast....The idea is to avoid USD-pairs out of aversion to surging volatility/noise/mis-....The chart below shows how the upturn in VVIX/VIX encouraged us to to stay out of....nbsp; Watch the full video on how to use the VVIX/VIX to help anticipate....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: VVIX VIX Inflection
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 29, 2022 12:52
What's the point of using fancy indicators ratios such as the VVIX/VIX....Here's an instructional video on using the VVIX/VIX ratio...Two days ago, I sent the below chart below to our WhatsApp Broadcast Group,....nbsp;....As the WhatsApp snapshot shows, the idea is to observe the higher lows in the....This means the VVF low from this week is higher than the VVE low of mid-March...This is similar to the lows in March and May of 2021, when VVB and VVD coincided....nbsp;....For a detailed overview on how to use the VVIX/VIX, watch this video...Tying the fundamental rationale to the aforementioned thesis, could be....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Intermetals Framework Update
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 18, 2023 16:42
During this summer's selloff in gold, we asserted and repeated the reminders....The case of the 2023 gold lows was cleaner and more assuring because it was....The lows of early October 2023 were more dubious as they showed mixed signals:....Another metric that helped was that of the GoldBugs Ratio -- often shared with....So where are we today? Pls read on below...nbsp;....Not only the November trendline support remains intact, but the trendline....Particularly bullish is the breakout of the long term resistance of XME, whose....nbsp;....Looking ahead, the general picture suggests $2500 is a viable possibility....Earlier today we shared 8 key pointers with our WBG each gold trader has to....Some of these are related to the broad nature of FedFunds forecasts by each Fed....Other more absolute elements include the reality that gold has posted its 2nd....Here's another take: Gold went from its 2nd biggest monthly decline in 2....Now imagine how much higher gold would be if bitcoin did not exist.
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Intraday Market Thought: Previewing Tankan & China’s PMI
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 31, 2015 18:01
Before previewing tonight's key market-moving date from Asia, namely....Full charts & analysis..
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Premium: Fragmented Stability in Appetite
by Ashraf Laidi | May 18, 2016 18:47Update: May 18, 2016 21:39 GMT....Extended Corrections go Separate Ways....Long GBPUSD ahead of the FOMC minutes...More details follow in today's video. -
Intraday Market Thought: G20 Rifts Open, GBP Shorts Hit Record
by Adam Button | Mar 20, 2017 19:20
Headlines from the G20 meetings in Germany showed the new US administration....The first French Presidential debate gets underway this evening, followed by....Sterling fell sharply after UK PM May announced the date of Article 50 kickoff....A new trade will be issued this evening to Premium clients...The best way to look at the G20 is a barometer...Little is ever accomplished at the Summits but the topics of discussion and....Baden-Baden was Mnuchin's first entry onto the world stage...In public comments, he was cordial and only offered small hints on what the....But behind closed doors other leaders hinted at frustration as Trump's....The Communique removed a reference to resisting protectionism and leaders were....After more than 50 days of Trump, we still have little idea on whether he'....The G20 may have been a small signal that it's Option #2...Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -41K vs -58K prior...JPY -71K vs -54K prior...GBP -107K vs -81K prior...CHF -9K vs -10K prior...AUD +43K vs +51K prior...CAD +21vs +29K prior...NZD -6K vs -4K prior....The net short in cable is the most extreme since records began in 1992...It's been sold heavily from -60K in the final week of February...It's the clearest sign yet that specs are piling into shorts and looking....That's the kind of thing that often blows up in the other direction.
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Intraday Market Thought: Draghi's Five Year Itch
by Adam Button | Jul 20, 2017 12:23
Today's s ECB decision will be the five-year anniversary of Draghi's....And believe me, it will be enough,” is what Mario Draghi said on July 26,....A new tactical EUR trade idea will be issued moments before the ECB press....That July 2012 speech marked the bottom of the eurozone crisis and EUR/USD....It's known as the “whatever it takes” speech and we suggest you....Not because of its place in central banking history, but because it's an....ldquo;The euro is like a bumblebee,” he said, talking about how it....He speaks candidly and frankly...nbsp; Contrast that with 2017 Mario Draghi who painfully avoids saying....He has been in a battle against disinflation that's muzzled his....But after five years, the questions about the sustainability of the euro....Deflation is no longer a looming...Optimism is in the air...At Thursday's ECB meeting, the market and virtually every analyst is....More cautious words...More attempts to keep a lid on the euro...Subtle signals...A central bank running scared about the disinflationary damage of a 500-pip euro....What he should do is reach for another metaphor and rip off the band-aid...The wounds in Europe are healed and at some point, sending a message of renewed....That's probably more likely to come at the September ECB or at Jackson Hole....The market is focused on the details of ECB policy but the 'whatever it....If (when?) Draghi reaches for that broad brush again, he could paint another....Be prepared.
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Intraday Market Thought: Ripple's Next Move
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 5, 2018 18:10Finally, Ripple experiences disappointing news, or not the usual bit....Here is what we should focus on next...Full analysis. -
Intraday Market Thought: Cable Highest Since Brexit
by Adam Button | Jan 14, 2018 23:37
Last week's strong finish helped the pound break some critical levels and....The euro was the top performer last week, while the Canadian dollar lagged...CFTC positioning showed the market's infatuation with the euro...On Friday, we closed the Premium USDJPY short at 111...10 from 112...45 entry for a 135-pip...The EURUSD short was stopped out, while the existing EURUSD and GBPUSD longs....nbsp;....The pound has some of its swagger back...No doubt it's benefiting from the struggles of the US dollar but it's....On Friday, a report said Dutch and Spanish finance ministers had agreed to....This is a potentially huge development as it's the first crack in the....The Germans and French had hoped to carve up the UK's financial services....It's far-from-clear which faction will rule out...At this point, Holland and Spain appear to be alone, but it's a desperately-....At the same time, the chart is increasingly positive as is shown below...With Friday's break of the September high, cable is trading at the best....There isn't much resistance standing in the way of 1...40 but watch out for UK CPI numbers Tuesday and retail sales on Friday...Note that Monday is a holiday in the US...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +145K vs +128K prior...GBP +26K vs +16K prior...JPY -126K vs -122K prior...CAD +17K vs +15K prior...CHF -22K vs -16K prior...AUD +K vs -20K prior...NZD -11K vs -17K prior....Euro longs have risen 63% in the past two weeks but it hasn't stalled the....At some point the jitters will hit, but something will need to happen to inspire....In contrast, sterling longs are still relatively low with cable breaking out..
