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  • Intraday Market Thought: Into FOMC & Brexit Vote

    by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 15, 2019 18:54
    Into FOMC & Brexit Vote Chart GBP ends another week as the strongest currency (see chart below of USD against....Now that British Parliament has voted against a no-deal and in favour of....Global indices are pushing higher across the board and a key factor in deciding....Brexit vote is on Tuesday and FOMC announcement/press conference and dot....The Fed stmt and Powell's press conference should shed more light on....From a trading perspective, 7 out of our 8 Premium trades are currently in the....The 8 trades arein: EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDCHF, GOLD, SILVER, USOIL, BITCOIN and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Onto Consumers, Month-End & Fed

    by Adam Button | Apr 29, 2019 12:51
    Onto Consumers, Month-End & Fed Chart The US dollar initially jumped after Friday's release of strong headline....CFTC positioning data hinted a why dollar bulls are so uneasy...Take a look at the chart of USDX spec net longs below...nbsp; Key US data on personal spending and core PCE price index is due next...The combination of month-end flows, Wednesday's Fed statement and BoE&....The kneejerk market reaction to the first look at Q1 US GDP was to buy the....The economy expanded at a 3...2% pace, far in excess of the 2...3% expected...Immediately, the dollar just a quarter-cent across the board but almost as....That's because one-off factors were behind the gain as inventories add 0...65 pp, net trade added 1...03 pp and government spending contributed 0...41 pp...Those are all likely to reverse...Strip them out and growth was just under 1...2%....Ashraf warned about the inventories factor on Twitter minutes prior to the....Another market mover on Friday was oil as it fell more than 4% at one point on....Saudi leaders and the OPEC secretary general both denied speaking with the....nbsp;....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....This week's report was delayed because of the US holiday...EUR -105K vs -98K prior...GBP -2K vs -1K prior...JPY -94K vs -87K prior...CHF -38K vs -33K prior...CAD -47K vs -49K prior...AUD -50K vs -47K prior...NZD -5K vs -3K prior....The euro net short hit a fresh extreme since December 2016 but it's been....The bigger moves in the report are in JPY and CHF as bets against both ramp up....However that's tough to square given the large bets against commodity FX...On the whole, it's a market that's continuing to pile into dollars and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Peso Perspectives and Primed for Payrolls

    by Adam Button | Jun 7, 2019 11:38
    Peso Perspectives and Primed for Payrolls Chart The Mexican peso is ground zero in the latest round of the tariff fight and yet....We explain why and look at implications that most are missing...Non-farm payrolls are due on Friday...GBP is the highest performer on weakening odds of Boris Johnson becoming....Here's what Ashraf said about GBP and Johnson 2 weeks ago...US and Canada jobs are due next...nbsp;....The most-notable aspect about the Mexican peso is how little it has fallen....On Thursday, he ramped up warnings saying “not nearly enough”....Peso dynamics suggest how minimal the expectations of Trump following through....MXN is down only 2...65% against the US dollar since Trump's surprise threat on May 30...That's a relatively small move in the emerging market space and even when....One interpretation would be that tariffs remain a low-probability event or won&....But that doesn't explain why the broad market is expressing a larger....Oil is down 12% since the announcement...Treasury yields are down 33 basis points at the front-end and more than a full....The market is thinking this isn't a Mexico-only problem...The message is that Trump is increasingly willing to turn to tariffs...On Thursday he said “the higher tariffs go, the higher the number of....rdquo;....Could markets be coming to terms with the idea that Trump really believes in....He really is Tariff Man...He said Thursday that he will decide on more Chinese tariffs in two weeks and....In the short-term, if a deal is done to avert tariffs on Mexico, watch for how....If he comes out afterwards and says 'tariffs work and that's why we got....First, the market will be looking to Friday's non-farm payrolls report...The economist consensus is +180K but the market is undoubtedly braced for....Anything better than 140K will be a sigh of relief for markets...At the same time, watch out if it's above 220K because a number that strong..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fake US-Mexican Standoff Ends

    by Adam Button | Jun 9, 2019 23:38
    Fake US-Mexican Standoff Ends Chart How long can global equity indices in and out of the US continue to rally on&....A poor US jobs report helped deepen 3 USD trades into the green...New Zealand dollar was the top performer last week while the US dollar lagged...CFTC positioning data showed aggressive GBP selling, further diverging away from....The charts belows shows how USDX has finally converged with falling USD net....A new set of Premium trades will be issued ahead of the US Monday session...Last week we wrote about why the Mexican peso was unusually placid in the face....The details of the deal raise further questions about what's coming next...Importantly, the New York Times reports that the deal announced Friday consisted....Trump disputed that in a series of tweets but the entire saga increasingly....If that's the case, then the reasons for the fake brinksmanship are critical...They could be: 1) political theatre aimed at appeal to Trump's anti-....If the first scenario is valid, then the market should easily move on but it'....It will be interesting to see how markets react throughout Monday...A sell-the-fact reaction would highlight the worries while a rebound in the US....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -88K vs -100K prior...GBP -48K vs -32K prior...JPY -44K vs -55K prior...CHF -36K vs -35K prior...CAD -42K vs -39K prior...AUD -63K vs -66K prior...NZD -11K vs -11K prior....Dollar longs remain a crowded trade despite last week's selling...A US-China trade war and the Fed strongly hinting at a cut at next week&..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold Cheers Global Central Bank Raid

    by Adam Button | Jul 3, 2019 14:21
    Gold Cheers Global Central Bank Raid Chart The politicization of major central banks reached a new level to the benefit....This gave gold its biggest % gain since the Brexit referendum (more here)....The pound remains weak across the board after BoE Governor Carney highlighted....US ADP disappointed with 102K vs exp 140k, US trade deficit widened to $55 bn....We turn to the key services ISM at the top of the hour ahead of Thursday's....The events of late Tuesday in metals helped answer several subscribers'....Carney's comments echoed Powell's and Draghi's warning about trade....Gold responded with a $30 rise while the pound slumped to the lowest since June....8% retracement of the June rally in the process...In the bigger picture, the market has given back most of the Trump-Xi truce....US Treasury yields are fractionally above cycle lows, oil sank 5% and USD/....Part of that is the US announcing fresh tariffs on Europe...The new action covers a relatively small $4B in goods but it's a sign of....Meanwhile, bond yields around the pursue their collapse...Another sign of what's to come is increasing politicization of central....Europe didn't do itself any favors on that front by nominating France's....Those criticisms could make her less-inclined to push the monetary policy....It will also make the central bank an increasing lightning rod within and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Exuberant Demands?

    by Adam Button | Aug 21, 2019 1:04
    Exuberant Demands? Chart There's a mismatch between financial markets's expectations and....The yen and Swiss franc were the top performers Tuesday while the US dollar....The FOMC minutes from the Jul 31 rate hike are due up at 7 pm London...For a reminder of what the Fed said and reasoned on that day, please read on....Both of the Premium English and Arabic videos were part of one single video....Financial markets increasingly expect fiscal and monetary policymakers to....It's a paradigm that plays out repeatedly during periods of economic....Two big tests of whether we've come that far are coming up...The first test will be this evening's release of Fed minutes from the July....These will undoubtedly skew hawkishly because they were taken before the....They will also reflect Powell's assertions that the domestic economy is....To recall what the FOMC did, Powell said and how markets reacted on Jul 31st,....The second test will offer a current take as Powell delivers his Jackson Hole....The market will demand a chance in tone from Powell's July 31 press....On Tuesday, SF Fed President Daly (not a voter at this year's FOMC) said she....At the same time, fiscal hopes are also precarious...The lack of enthusiasm for US tax cut talk underscores how difficult it will....In Italy, a snap election would risk an automatic VAT hike...The UK is a prime candidate for some fiscal help but is essentially paralyzed....Canada also faces an October vote.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Saudi Strike Upends More Than Oil

    by Adam Button | Sep 16, 2019 11:55
    Saudi Strike Upends More Than Oil Chart Oil prices are up 8%, paring earlier gains of nearly 20% seen at the Asia....The price spike signalled geopolitical worries rather than a loss of production...The chart below shows the attack caused the biggest supply disruption in history,....JPY and CAD are today's FX winners, but gold and silver are up against all....The Empire Fed (ISM from NY Fed) is due later, but world markets remain fixated....Do not forget Tuesday's UK Supreme Court ruling on whether PM Johnson's....Then, all eyes shift to Wednesday's Fed decision and Trump's reactions...The Premium oil short was stopped out, leaving two existing trades in progress...New tactical Premium trades will be issued over the next two days...Japanese markets were closed to start the week but that did nothing to stop a....Brent rose as much as $11...70 to hit $71...95 – the highest since late-May...WTI hit $63...54...Dow and S&P futures were down by as much as 200 and 25 pts respectively....The attacks cut Saudi production roughly in half, taking 5...7 million barrels per day out of service...Videos of the facilities showed massive fires and report said it will take....At the same time, some (if not most) of the production could be restored within....Given ample supplies and reserves globally – including large amounts....Instead, it's the geopolitical risk that goes along with the attacks, as....Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility for the attack, and if....The US, however, insisted on blaming Iran, which could lead to US and Saudi....US Secretary of State Pompeo openly pointed the finger at Tehran, but so far....If he does, it may signify an imminent reprisal...So far he has said the US is 'locked and loaded' for a response but....In FX, the Canadian dollar is the early leader with the yen and Swiss franc both....The US dollar is generally stable elsewhere...It also adds a wrinkle to Fed thinking...Higher gasoline prices are undoubtedly inflationary but the attacks add a....There are still some final data points for the FOMC to consider as well,....The consensus is for a +4...0 reading.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Do not Look at this, if Short GBP

    by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 16, 2019 15:19
    Do not Look at this, if Short GBP Chart Here's the latest on UK yield spreads with the US...Full analysis and charts.

  • Intraday Market Thought: MidEast Tests Risk Appetite Foundation

    by Adam Button | Jan 6, 2020 16:30
    MidEast Tests Risk Appetite Foundation Chart Markets absorb earlier earlier losses from the escalation of MidEast clashes...Iran said it will no longer observe limits on uranium enrichment and Iraq....JPY is the biggest loser, lifting USDJPY to 108...30s from 107...70s, while GBP is the biggest gainer, following UK services PMI's return....US services PMI edged higher, with all eyes on the services ISM tomorrow...Don't forget US and Canada jobs this Friday...The Iran-US confrontation is in a deep state of flux, and is increasingly....Iraqi parliament on Sunday voted on a resolution demanding foreign troops to....In the holy city of Qom a red flag was unfurled on the Great mosque of Jamkaran....Trump warned that the US had identified 52 Iranian targets if Iran launches an....At presentm it appears like a retaliation from Iran is imminent, but....There remains little appetite for war, and US forces wildly exceed any others....Tensions can dissipate quickly...200 MAs in High Yielders....Keep an eye on the 200 DMAs in AUDUSD and NZDUSD...We said last week, the technical breakouts above those levels reflected....But as the latest risk aversion force high yielders lower, the 200 DMAs for....6895 and 0...6520 respectively.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Low Key Powell, High Gear Appetite

    by Adam Button | Feb 12, 2020 14:20
    Low Key Powell, High Gear Appetite Chart USD resumes pullback as yields recover and stocks rip higher after Fed Chair....China reported the lowest number of Coronavirus cases in over 2 weeks...nbsp; NZD leads the pack after the RBNZ surprisingly shut the door on 2020 rate....Yesterday's Premium trade is 50 pips in the green, while the below is the....Fed Chair Powell said there will likely be some impacts on the US from the virus....Odds for a September rate cut have fallen to 64% from 87% 2 weeks ago...But Cryptos continue to rally across the board as the snapshot shows below...nbsp;....The stock market continued to vote otherwise with the S&P 500 hitting a....Treasury yields rose 3 basis points across the curve and the modest strength....The euro touched a new low for the year but support at the September low of 1...0879 has held for far...If the strength in the US dollar continues, that's a major pivot....04...Get these Intraday Market Thoughts in your mailbox Start now.
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