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Results: 231 to 240 of 1,000
Results: 231 to 240 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Dollar Slumps on New Taper Message
by Adam Button | Aug 30, 2021 14:16
Fed Chair Jerome Powell offered no signal on the timing of the taper at....But it was the way Powell and other Fed speakers began to shape the taper....nbsp;Gold had its 2nd biggest weekly gain of the year and the US dollar fell....US pending home sales top the economic calendar to start a busy week...Ashraf's latest Youtube video identifies the 2 new ways the Fed is....A series of Fed speakers ahead of Powell highlighted various cases for tapering....He said that at the most-recent FOMC meeting on July 27-28 he was of the view....Since then, he noted there was a strong jobs report but also the further spread....Without expanding on the relative weight of either of those factors, he said....The message the market took from that is to keep a close eye on economic data....The US dollar slumped 40-80 pips across the board, with the heaviest losses....9% to fresh records...The market now will shift to a hyper-focus on a Nov or Dec taper (there is no....What's longer-lasting is that Powell and the FOMC are in no reason to hike...He again highlighted that inflation should be transitory, noting that....8 pp to year-over-year inflation – factors that should level off or....For the week ahead, it's a busy one leading up to non-farm payrolls but..
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Intraday Market Thought: Weak Dollar Awaits Jobs Rescue
by Adam Button | Sep 2, 2021 20:48
DXY is posting its 5th consecutive daily decline, the longest string of losses....Thursday's release of weekly jobless showed a slight decline as expected,....ADP does have a spotty record but the soft August reading adds to the mounting....nbsp; More on the gas sector below...nbsp;The NASDAQ charts below suggest a short-term trading opportunity in....We let the charts speak for themselves...nbsp;....The ADP employment report showed the US adding just 374K jobs in August compared....That was compounded by the employment component of the ISM manufacturing....The pandemic-era history of the ADP report and the small size of....The dollar fell 30-40 pips across the board on the data in only a small....Another spot to watch is the weekly US natural gas storage report, which is....Last week's surprise miss helped to send gas prices into high gear in the US....The base case for global central banks is that the flattening of energy prices....Moreover, this is not traditionally the peak of natural gas prices for the year....So expect to hear much more about NG and LNG in the months ahead.
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Intraday Market Thought: China Covid Outbreak, & Bitcoin Correlated Stock
by Adam Button | Oct 25, 2021 12:51
Chinese health officials delivered some bad news on the weekend, nothing that....The market took the news in stride early, but it's worth watching if cases....On Friday, Powell reaffirmed the need to taper this year, prompting gold to lose....USD is up against most currencies as of Sunday's open, with the exception of....Minutes ago, US crude oil just hit $85 for the 1st time in 7 years, which is....nbsp; Ashraf added a stock in the chart below, with a high positive correlation....Care to guess/add it to your holdings?....As bad as supply chain bottlenecks are, they could be much worse if covid had....Or maybe it's only a matter of time because while China is making vaccine....While we're optimistic on covid receding further, the recent lockdown in....Otherwise, markets are consumed with rates and inflation talk...Powell on Friday struck a different tone in nothing the high prices will likely....He also emphasized that they need to consider a full range of plausible....While he still argued for patience, the confident 'transitory' talk from....The Fed doves are seeing the pressure on jobs and supply chains and increasingly....Interestingly though, as the dollar rallied on this and short-dated rates....Economic data will be more lively in the week ahead with the US week starting..
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Intraday Market Thought: Chapters for BTC/ETH Video فيديو عن بتكوين وإثيريوم
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 23, 2021 23:43
Bitcoin, Ethereum & altcoins had a great two days...Here's what is needed to avoid fresh damage why I'm optimistic...Full Video.
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Intraday Market Thought: FX Atop Stocks, Bonds & Business Surveys
by Ashraf Laidi | May 23, 2022 17:21
Here are charts capturing the weakness in asset portfolios, business surveys....The simultaneous decline in various Fed and non-Fed business surveys (top panel)....The latter illustrates that even bond vigilantes are growing skeptical of Fed&....nbsp; Don't be taken by the fancy charts and ask instead, “how do I....nbsp;....The uninterrupted slowdown in the Philly Fed survey, Chicago PMI, Manufacturing....The time-lag problem with this requirement is that by the time we get....nbsp;....The "market" response to the above deterioration is reflected in the....Such loss in institutional portfolios may be somewhat subsided of the high....nbsp;....Next Monday is Memorial Day Holiday in the US...But later that week will show the release of both ISM surveys and the jobs....nbsp; It is too early for such reports to reverse, or halt the inflation-....nbsp;....Yet, we must continue watching USD and bond yields...FX traders are already giving more weight to the idea of narrowing US yield....Bond bulls may be further enthused by more pullback in yields-- such as a....60% in the 10-year...Bond bears will need a proper close above 3...0% to get them confident again...No fireworks are expected as long as yields remain inside this range...FX, however, is already ahead of the curve, as we have gained from EURUSD,....nbsp; ....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Markets can no longer wait
by Ashraf Laidi | Feb 24, 2017 15:36
Much has been said and promised by president Trump and French Independent....Now it's time for details...nbsp; In the case of the US, the Fed has become not only increasingly tight-....In addition to Friday's Yellen/Fischer speeches, look out for Tuesday&....Super Trump Tuesday: Markets will shift attention to next Tuesday's Trump&....The implications for labour costs, consumer prices and the budget deficit....In the case of France (& euro), Macron has climbed in the polls to the....nbsp; France-German spreads starting to matter to the extent that they have....This has several implications: i) Forcing the ECB to carry out asymmetric....ii) As the 10-year France-Germany spread hits 5-year highs, the euro is unable....23 days after we issued our SILVER long, backed by 6 factors, we have just..
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Intraday Market Thought: 2 Year vs FedFunds Signal
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 13, 2023 20:23
What will happen to markets in case Feb CPI rises well over expectations? What....0% y/y and 0...4% m/m ? The SVB implosion has eliminated odds of a 50-bp Fed hike,....Even odds of a 25-bp hike (not 50bp) are now below 60%....The chart on the left shows the straightforward relationship between....But let's dig deep on the right-hand chart, plotting the FedFunds rate....In a matter of 4 days, US 2-year yields have gone from hitting 16-year highs to....The 4...09% print is 0...66 below the Fed Funds rate—a level at which the Fed Funds rate had....This is highlighted in the chart as Aug 2007 and June 2019...nbsp;....What's the rationale for this development? In absolute terms (not....So when 10-year yields fell below their 2-year and 3-month counterparts last....During that time, however, both 2-year and 3-month yields (t-bills) were on the....And as we know, 2-yr yields hit a 15-year high early last week...So just a reminder: Yield curve inversions usually precede rate cuts by....Finally this week, both 2-year and 3-month yields registered a sharp decline,....The rise in US unemployment and slowdown in average hourly earnings in Friday&....When it rains, it pours -- “Risk happens fast” as the market saying....If Tuesday's release of the Feb CPI comes in at or below 6...0%, then gold could easily regain $1960...This also depends on what the m/m reading does...There are various permutations from the CPI release, paving the way for a $30-40....What if CPI rises above 6...5% y/y? I would say stocks will generally bear the worst of such outcome,....nbsp;....Meanwhile, our WhatsApp Broadcast Group does not waste time...5-7 seconds after the CPI release, members will get a voice note with my....Good luck...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Finally Gold ETFs Flows Do this
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 17, 2023 17:00
It's probably no coincidence that gold is staging its biggest weekly gain....Regardless of whether the FDIC will make all depositors whole, all US banks will....Even the biggest/most profitable US banks will struggle, forcing a faster....So what do you have to learn from the chart below?....The top panel shows the daily percentage change of inflows in Gold ETFs, with....As you can see, inflows are finally ticking higher for the first time since....Unlike in the previous three phases of rising gold (1, 2 & 3) the latest 8....In each of phases 1, 2 and 3 gold managed to rally despite ongoing....Today, the combination of the biggest 2-week decline in US-10 year yields since....You know when you try to find out the year's best performing commodity and....6%, only behind Iron ore (+11%) and coffee (9%....All energy commodities are in the red for the year, while copper and silver....nbsp; We're only 17th of March, 5 days away from a Federal Reserve....Not to mention, a press conference, where Jay Powell will have to explain....nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: First Republic, Debt Ceiling, CDS & Bitcoin
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 26, 2023 14:42Bitcoin's status as the best candidate for replacin fractional reserve baking....FR's latest bleed is captured in Wednesday's pre-market action (chart....Meanwhile, the ongoing bipartisan impasse over the US debt ceiling....No, we will not need to post a gold chart, showing rapid gains, but you can....But you can bet that odds of post-May Fed tightening are increasingly inverse....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Gold, USD & Bitcoin Combo
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 22, 2023 20:43
Both DXY and XAUUSD are down by more than 2% this month...The last time this happened, was in November 2020-- when the US presidential....But something else is happening alongside DXY & XAUUSD that last....Here's the full analysis and permutations and what it means ahead...nbsp;..
