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  • Intraday Market Thought: Western Markets Absorb China's Plunge

    by Adam Button | Feb 3, 2020 15:44
    Western Markets Absorb China's Plunge Chart Chinese markets did their part in returning from a long holiday with a....But markets in Europe and the US resumed their rally, after SPX held up above....China's decisiom to cit rates on 14-Day and 7 day reverse repos did help....Sterling lost all of its post-BoE gains on prolonged conflicting statements from....Coronavirus cases in China have increased to 17,205 and the first death....The city of Wenzhou (pop: 9m) became the first outside of Hubei to be locked....It's an important port city in the Zhejiang province that's south of....Only one resident per household will be allowed to leave the residence every two....Economically, oil market watchers are estimating that Chinese demand is down....42 at the open...The bigger spotlight was on Chinese equities, which fell 8% despite Beijing&....The rates on 7 and 14-day reverse repos were also cut by 10 basis points along....Here's Ashraf's warning below to the shorts late Friday after the short....China has many levers to pull to stimulate demand but no amount of....Early-week sentiment outside of China is modestly positive, perhaps on signs....Further curbs and quarantines could help it from turning into a pandemic...What's worrisome is that, there are more reports of low-intensity cases...On the surface that sounds like good news but researchers highlight that it....Expect coronavirus news to dominate the week ahead with more of the kinds of....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -59K vs -47K prior...GBP +18K vs +25K prior...JPY -36K vs -45K prior...CHF +3...5K vs +1...5 prior...CAD +35K vs +38K prior...AUD -27K vs -19K prior...NZD +2...0K vs +1...8K prior....Expect a continued unwind in yen shorts if the coronavirus threat remains high.

  • Intraday Market Thought: OPEC+ Playbook

    by Adam Button | Apr 8, 2020 22:58
    OPEC+ Playbook Chart Thursday's OPEC+ meeting is a major risk to the oil market but it's....The Australian dollar was Wednesday's top performer, while the euro lagged....US Initial jobless claims will also command attention on Thursday (more on....A new trade for the Premium Insight's subscribers has been issued before the....فيديو المشتركين لتوضيح الصفقة و بقية الفرص...In ordinary times, a 1-2 million barrel cut from OPEC would be major news but on....The US weekly oil inventory report showed that implied demand for crude was....446 mbpd last week compared to 21...86 pre-virus...That may flatter the global picture, but even at that level, it shows demand at....Extrapolate that globally, and it argues there is an excess of 35 million....Those are the types of numbers OPEC+ members and others invited to the....The official talks begin at 4 pm in Vienna (10 am New York) and aren't....Oil Barrels Maths....Algeria's oil minister said OPEC+ cuts could reach 10 mbpd on Wednesday in....Contrast that with a Russian report that hinted at a 14% cut for everyone from....That would be 1...6mbpd and around 4 mbpd from OPEC...Add in the extra 2...5 mbpd from Saudi Arabia since the start of April and that's still only 7...5 mbpd...That gap could be bridged, but the OPEC meeting itself may be just the beginning...Saudi Arabia will also host a G20 conference on Friday...The risk is that OPEC cuts could have a conditional element that's taken to....If so, more leaders could offer token pledges to manage oversupply but we....Weekend risks loom large because Friday is a holiday in much of the world but....Other events to watch for on Thursday are at 1230 GMT with the release of US....The consensus on US claims is for another 5m layoffs with a range around 2...5m-7...5m...The consensus on Canadian employment is -500K with 7...5% unemployment...The country has already announced more than 2 million job losses so there's..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Searching for Drivers, Winners and Losers

    by Adam Button | Apr 27, 2020 15:10
    Searching for Drivers, Winners and Losers Chart The two main factors that drive currencies are interest rates and growth....That's left the FX market decidedly uncertain...The risk trade and politics are short-term drivers but have failed to spark....The Australian dollar might be a hint of where the market is looking next...AUD is leading today's rally vs USD after 2 territories (states) announced....Gold and oil push lower, with US Crude hitting a 5-day low at $11...88 as excess supply becomes too great of a reality for producers mulling any....Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that “over time” the....The statement is a reminder of the deteriorating debt situation at the US....By the usual playbook, the Australian dollar is a terrible place to be right....It's a classic growth-sensitive currency that's highly reliant on....Yet since the chart bottomed on March 18 at 0...5506, it's shown few signs of looking back...It's steadily climbed to 0...6445 in mid-April and is now a half-cent away from that high...It's also only 200 pips from mid-February levels...The case for owning AUD is that internal domestic growth could leave the country....The number of Coronavirus cases have been minimal in Australia and New....Given the lack of land borders for either country, they could realistically....Of course, the demand for antipodean exports is severely hampered but that....Rises in AUD and NZD would undoubtedly be pain trades in the FX market but in a....That doesn't follow the classic rules but it's time for outside-the-....If it continues, it will be an early sign that the real driver in FX markets....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +87K vs +87K prior...GBP -1K vs +3K prior...JPY +26K vs +22K prior...CHF +5K vs +5K prior...CAD -24K vs -24K prior...AUD -35K vs -36K prior...NZD -14K vs -15K..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold & Silver Holding as Long as This Happens

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 19, 2020 0:05
    Gold & Silver Holding as Long as This Happens Chart The elusive R continues-- Epidemiogists are seeking to determine the R value....Today, US stocks posted their biggest gain since early April on a combination....That's the fundamental explanation...What about the technical/quantitative explanation? (see below)....Meanwhile, metals pulled lower but gold & silver remain well above their....Thursday's Premium long in the DOW30 hit its final target at 24380 for 1120-....A new Premium trade has been issued shortly after the cash close, backed by....nbsp;....So why did we choose to take the long in Thursday when markets were still....In summary, there were plenty of signs showing eroding momentum in Wednesday&....So far, we have 6 open Premium trades, all of which are in the green, led by....50 respectively...From year-to-date to 5 days-to-date....Year-to-Date, technology is the only sector in the green, followed by health....The worst sector remains energy...The situation of the past 5 trading days, however, appears starkly different...Economically sensitive sectors such as materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI)....The untouchable Technology sector (XLK) is the 8th worst performing sector out....How long can we rely on fed funds futures signalling negative rates by....What's Special about the WhatsApp Broadcast Group?....And regarding Thursday's DOW30 trade, the regular Premium clients made 1120....The same story with last Friday's silver trade, when I announced to the....By the time the trade was written, charted and published, silver had moved...And the same applied to last week's NZDUSD short trade.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Tech Takes Over

    by Adam Button | Jul 14, 2020 13:09
    Tech Takes Over Chart Technology stocks are increasingly the tail that wags the dog in broader....See the note on SOX, QQQ and XLK below...The euro started the week as the top performer while sterling lagged...JP Morgan beat earnings thanks to stellar trading operations, which helped....Today, EUR is the strongest, GBP the weakest, deepening the Premium Insight&....Economic data picks up with US CPI next...The Premium long in EURCAD finaly hit its final target for 260-pip gain here...nbsp;....The insanity in Tesla's stock price on Monday is indicative of the mood in....The $250 rise in its stock price to start the day was its entire market cap....The reversal took many of the high-flying tech stocks with it and the....1%....This could simply be another bump in the road in a rally that's spanned....It's a reminder that this is an emotion-driven market and greed can flip....That argues for laser focus on risk management...Watch QQQ  SOX XLK....Pay attention to the massive bearish engulfing daily candle on QQQ, Philly....SOX eyes next crucial support at 1998/99, QQQ is vulnerable to break below 256....This move could be reinforced if US bank earnings outperform and accelerate the....Earnings season picks up this week and that will add an extra layer of intrigue...Looking ahead, the US June inflation report is due at 1230 GMT...The consensus is for just a 0...6% y/y rise in prices but even a significant miss wouldn't rattle the....The detail to focus on will be hourly and weekly earnings, which are forecast....4% and 6...5% y/y, respectively...Those numbers highlight the boost from enhanced unemployment benefits and are a....In terms of the Fed, a speech from Brainard at 1800 GMT will be notable...She was the lone dissenter at the top ranks of the FOMC in the banks'....Alternatively, she could focus on the economy and lay out her views on what&....She's not afraid to go against the grain and her thoughts are worth heeding.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Key Support Levels مستويات الدعم الحاسمة

    by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 6, 2020 14:09
    We opened access to Thursday's Premium video...Save yourself time and jump straight to part 4:50 mins of the video for those....Then check Friday's price action...لا تضيع وقتك: إذهب مباشرة الى مقطع 11:45 دقيقة من فيديو مساء الخميس لتجد ما....nbsp; بعد ذالك تأكد ما حدث يوم الجمعة من حيث التصحيحات  ....nbsp; ..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Deal Dance & Hand-Holding

    by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2020 22:43
    Deal Dance & Hand-Holding Chart Markets soured on the prospects for a US stimulus deal to start the week but....As for hand-holding, it is close to what Ashraf did to the WhatsApp Broadcast....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...GBP shurgged Friday's tough Brexit talk as the EU delegation landed in....The yen was the top performer last week while the Australian dollar lagged...CFTC positioning data shows the euro's vulnerability...More US housing data is due Tuesday as that market continues to boom...Below are Ashraf's NASDAQ calls to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group during the....The game of deal-or-no-deal on both sides of the Atlantic was in high gear....In Europe, a call between Frost and Barnier appeared to thaw negotiations....A reminder of the stakes came after the close on Friday when Moody's lowered....The cited a soft economy and an erosion in fiscal strength but also added that....rdquo;....In the US, talked between Mnuchin and Pelosi continued ahead of the Tuesday....Reports that Pelosi highlighted fundamental differences in values to....That spilled over to commodity currencies as they gave back early gains...There are two options now: Bet on an outcome or wait for clear news...There have been so many fakeouts in both these negotiations that it's tough....In all likelihood, markets are still placing a high probability on some kind....Perhaps that sits at 80/20 in both instances, if not lower for stimulus...Of course, neither of those are occurring in a vacuum...Ireland closed non-essential retail for six weeks on Monday with European cases....Q4 GDP throughout the continent is deteriorating along with optimism about....In the US, voting and election campaigning continue, while there has....That likely reflects an over-reliance on history repeating itself but financial....The failure of a short-term stimulus deal followed by a divided Congress....Many of the trades in the coming days will be taken as developments happen but....The power of low rates was on full display with the US home builder....Tuesday is housing starts, which are forecast to rise 2...8% with associated permits up 2...0%....Some time in 2021 or beyond, the rises in home equity will be a large tailwind....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +168K vs +174K prior...GBP -10K vs -11K prior...JPY +20K vs +21K prior...CHF +12K vs +13K prior...CAD -14K vs -18K prior...AUD +4K vs +11K prior...NZD +6K vs +5K prior....The euro net continues to drift lower after hitting a record in July but..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Cardano and gold beyond jobs

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 2, 2021 18:52
    Cardano and gold beyond jobs Chart Cardano still looks good by several technical measures...The US jobs report came and went with yields extending their plunge, Nasdaq....It was another case of stronger than expected payrolls +850K, unexpected rise....9% from 5...8% and average hourly earnings remaining a soft +0...3% m/m...nbsp; As for Cardano, the 3 charts below highlight it is making the transition....How about gold? It quietly rose $40 this week, with our WhatsApp Broadcast Group....As long as real yields continue to chart the same pattern shown in last week'..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Charting more Proactively

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 5, 2021 23:10
    Charting more Proactively Chart Everyone can identify a chart pattern at any time...The key is how to spot a powerful pattern ahead of key economic data in a....And that is exactly what we told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group 30 mins prior....We spotted the head-&-shoulder formation in the US 10-year yield, which....And although NFP rose, unempRate fell and Avg Hrly earnings rose further,....It's all captured after 2:44 mins of the video.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin Breaks Gold Channel

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 27, 2021 19:08
    Bitcoin Breaks Gold Channel Chart As a follow-up to Friday's video on the recurring patterns of bitcoin vs USD,....The latest weekly chart (left) continues to drive the idea that Bitcoin will....Relative to gold, Bitcoin's pattern remain similar to summer 2020 (middle....Bitcoin must close the month above $53K in order to preserve its 7-month upward....This would imply considerable upside vs USD as long as XAUUSD holds above $1770s...Feel free to watch from part 13:25 mins of the video for Bitcoin/Gold section.
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