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Results: 301 to 310 of 1,000
Results: 301 to 310 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Biggest GBP Jump in 2 years
by Adam Button | Oct 11, 2019 15:06
Sterling made its biggest weekly percentage gain vs USD in over 2 years....The Premium long trade in GBPUSD hit its final target for 260-pip gain...A solid Canadian jobs report dragged USDCAD lower by nearly 80 pips to 1...32...Markets now await comments from Trump on his meeting with China's vice....The other story is that of USDX selloff as the index broke its 55-DMA...GBP extended its rally this morning when UK Brexit minister Stephen Barclay told....More developments are awaited ahead of next week's EU summit as well as the....GBP bulls are now reasoning that Boris Johnson had little choice (either to ask....GBP is now the best G10 currency performer since the start of Q3....Onto US-China Talks....The market is pricing in a US-China trade deal that includes no new tariffs....That's nothing like the comprehensive deal many were hoping for....The Canadian jobs report is due on Friday but trade headlines will continue....A 'trade deal' is the wrong term to describe what appears to be shaping....This is more of a ceasefire that includes the bare minimum for both sides....This wasn't what anyone was hoping for but markets are signaling it's....Why? Mainly because it appears the US is backing down...If the truce comes together (and that's still far from certain at this....They have been the aggressor in this fight and if Trump has had enough for....In addition, this type of deal leaves enough uncertainty intact to keep the....Or at least the market thinks it does...We will be watching for any signals to the contrary ahead of the Oct 19....Looking further out, the deterioration in the US-China relationship is dire...The 'uncertainty' that the Fed has been lamenting on trade is now a....It's entirely clear that a decoupling is underway and the only....There are also important questions outside of the two countries...Those who can continue to trade openly with both sides stand to benefit, even..
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Intraday Market Thought: NZD, Impeachment Show Sign of Life
by Adam Button | Nov 26, 2019 13:26
A strong Q3 retail sales report underpinned the RBNZ's shift to the....The pound gives up half of Monday's gains as various polls show a slight....US new home sales rose in Oct showing the best 2 months in over 12 years,....US-China trade talks took a backseat to developments in the Trump impeachment....ماذا حدث لإشارة بيع السوق؟ (فيديو المشتركين)....New Zealand Q3 retail sales rose 1...6% excluding inflation, a far faster pace than the 0...5% climb expected...In the bigger picture, the news underpins the modest rally in the kiwi....62...It's still early days, but the RBNZ has signaled that it's done cutting....Moreover, the risk-reward is tilted to the upside...There's even the possibility of an inverse H&S on NZDUZD...In the bigger macro picture, the market continues to wait on US-China news...Risk trades rallied, yen crosses climbed and US stocks hit fresh records Monday....Monday's rally in the pound came after the release of the Conservative....A poll Monday showed the Tory lead over Labour down to +7...It led to a wobble in the pound and could be a one-off but if a second or..
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Intraday Market Thought: Geopolitics & Manufacturing Seasonals
by Adam Button | Jan 3, 2020 17:03
Most global indices are off their lows of the day, but the dangers surrounding....Adding to it today's release of the worst US manufacturing ISM reading in....Trump's ordering of the US killing of Iran's most powerful general will....The 3 cent spike in oil prices, along with the $20 jump in gold, 4% decline in....nbsp; Below is Ashraf's 1st video of the year for Premium subscribers,....But let's not forget what happened earlier in the week...China cut rates Thursday in a further boost to global growth but PMI readings....We continue to keep a close watch on global manufacturing...The global economy slowed in mid-2019 on the combination of higher interest....Since then the Fed and others have lowered rates and now we have a....Leading vs Lagging...With regards to US manufacturing, Ashraf reminds us that the latest....Some things like real estate have quickly turned around and stock markets....A few manufacturing surveys were out Thursday and the theme was a continued....A good spot to watch is the JPMorgan global PMI because it aggregates all the....It started 2018 at 54 then slowly sank to 49...3 into mid-2019...The latest number was out today at 50...1, which is barely expanding and lower than the previous month...If the theme this year is strengthening global growth then it has to show up in....The market probably has 2-3 months of patience as the trade deal, Brexit and....Hand-in-hand with that goes China...The PBOC cut the RRR by 50 basis points Wednesday and we expect to see a cut in....If China continues to stimulate then commodity currencies and commodities....In terms of seasonals, there are some strong tendencies but lately the trends....The traditional January effect is for stock market strength but that hasn'....What's more true is that risk trades do well in the first week of the month....In FX, it's the second weakest month for AUD, CAD and NZD but the past three....One of the strongest seasonal patterns anywhere is gold in January...It's by far the best month...Oil, meanwhile, tends to soften in January and then rally from Feb through..
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Intraday Market Thought: Western Markets Absorb China's Plunge
by Adam Button | Feb 3, 2020 15:44
Chinese markets did their part in returning from a long holiday with a....But markets in Europe and the US resumed their rally, after SPX held up above....China's decisiom to cit rates on 14-Day and 7 day reverse repos did help....Sterling lost all of its post-BoE gains on prolonged conflicting statements from....Coronavirus cases in China have increased to 17,205 and the first death....The city of Wenzhou (pop: 9m) became the first outside of Hubei to be locked....It's an important port city in the Zhejiang province that's south of....Only one resident per household will be allowed to leave the residence every two....Economically, oil market watchers are estimating that Chinese demand is down....42 at the open...The bigger spotlight was on Chinese equities, which fell 8% despite Beijing&....The rates on 7 and 14-day reverse repos were also cut by 10 basis points along....Here's Ashraf's warning below to the shorts late Friday after the short....China has many levers to pull to stimulate demand but no amount of....Early-week sentiment outside of China is modestly positive, perhaps on signs....Further curbs and quarantines could help it from turning into a pandemic...What's worrisome is that, there are more reports of low-intensity cases...On the surface that sounds like good news but researchers highlight that it....Expect coronavirus news to dominate the week ahead with more of the kinds of....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -59K vs -47K prior...GBP +18K vs +25K prior...JPY -36K vs -45K prior...CHF +3...5K vs +1...5 prior...CAD +35K vs +38K prior...AUD -27K vs -19K prior...NZD +2...0K vs +1...8K prior....Expect a continued unwind in yen shorts if the coronavirus threat remains high.
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Intraday Market Thought: OPEC+ Playbook
by Adam Button | Apr 8, 2020 22:58
Thursday's OPEC+ meeting is a major risk to the oil market but it's....The Australian dollar was Wednesday's top performer, while the euro lagged....US Initial jobless claims will also command attention on Thursday (more on....A new trade for the Premium Insight's subscribers has been issued before the....فيديو المشتركين لتوضيح الصفقة و بقية الفرص...In ordinary times, a 1-2 million barrel cut from OPEC would be major news but on....The US weekly oil inventory report showed that implied demand for crude was....446 mbpd last week compared to 21...86 pre-virus...That may flatter the global picture, but even at that level, it shows demand at....Extrapolate that globally, and it argues there is an excess of 35 million....Those are the types of numbers OPEC+ members and others invited to the....The official talks begin at 4 pm in Vienna (10 am New York) and aren't....Oil Barrels Maths....Algeria's oil minister said OPEC+ cuts could reach 10 mbpd on Wednesday in....Contrast that with a Russian report that hinted at a 14% cut for everyone from....That would be 1...6mbpd and around 4 mbpd from OPEC...Add in the extra 2...5 mbpd from Saudi Arabia since the start of April and that's still only 7...5 mbpd...That gap could be bridged, but the OPEC meeting itself may be just the beginning...Saudi Arabia will also host a G20 conference on Friday...The risk is that OPEC cuts could have a conditional element that's taken to....If so, more leaders could offer token pledges to manage oversupply but we....Weekend risks loom large because Friday is a holiday in much of the world but....Other events to watch for on Thursday are at 1230 GMT with the release of US....The consensus on US claims is for another 5m layoffs with a range around 2...5m-7...5m...The consensus on Canadian employment is -500K with 7...5% unemployment...The country has already announced more than 2 million job losses so there's..
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Intraday Market Thought: Searching for Drivers, Winners and Losers
by Adam Button | Apr 27, 2020 15:10
The two main factors that drive currencies are interest rates and growth....That's left the FX market decidedly uncertain...The risk trade and politics are short-term drivers but have failed to spark....The Australian dollar might be a hint of where the market is looking next...AUD is leading today's rally vs USD after 2 territories (states) announced....Gold and oil push lower, with US Crude hitting a 5-day low at $11...88 as excess supply becomes too great of a reality for producers mulling any....Elsewhere, US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin said that “over time” the....The statement is a reminder of the deteriorating debt situation at the US....By the usual playbook, the Australian dollar is a terrible place to be right....It's a classic growth-sensitive currency that's highly reliant on....Yet since the chart bottomed on March 18 at 0...5506, it's shown few signs of looking back...It's steadily climbed to 0...6445 in mid-April and is now a half-cent away from that high...It's also only 200 pips from mid-February levels...The case for owning AUD is that internal domestic growth could leave the country....The number of Coronavirus cases have been minimal in Australia and New....Given the lack of land borders for either country, they could realistically....Of course, the demand for antipodean exports is severely hampered but that....Rises in AUD and NZD would undoubtedly be pain trades in the FX market but in a....That doesn't follow the classic rules but it's time for outside-the-....If it continues, it will be an early sign that the real driver in FX markets....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +87K vs +87K prior...GBP -1K vs +3K prior...JPY +26K vs +22K prior...CHF +5K vs +5K prior...CAD -24K vs -24K prior...AUD -35K vs -36K prior...NZD -14K vs -15K..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold & Silver Holding as Long as This Happens
by Ashraf Laidi | May 19, 2020 0:05
The elusive R continues-- Epidemiogists are seeking to determine the R value....Today, US stocks posted their biggest gain since early April on a combination....That's the fundamental explanation...What about the technical/quantitative explanation? (see below)....Meanwhile, metals pulled lower but gold & silver remain well above their....Thursday's Premium long in the DOW30 hit its final target at 24380 for 1120-....A new Premium trade has been issued shortly after the cash close, backed by....nbsp;....So why did we choose to take the long in Thursday when markets were still....In summary, there were plenty of signs showing eroding momentum in Wednesday&....So far, we have 6 open Premium trades, all of which are in the green, led by....50 respectively...From year-to-date to 5 days-to-date....Year-to-Date, technology is the only sector in the green, followed by health....The worst sector remains energy...The situation of the past 5 trading days, however, appears starkly different...Economically sensitive sectors such as materials (XLB) and industrials (XLI)....The untouchable Technology sector (XLK) is the 8th worst performing sector out....How long can we rely on fed funds futures signalling negative rates by....What's Special about the WhatsApp Broadcast Group?....And regarding Thursday's DOW30 trade, the regular Premium clients made 1120....The same story with last Friday's silver trade, when I announced to the....By the time the trade was written, charted and published, silver had moved...And the same applied to last week's NZDUSD short trade.
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Intraday Market Thought: Tech Takes Over
by Adam Button | Jul 14, 2020 13:09
Technology stocks are increasingly the tail that wags the dog in broader....See the note on SOX, QQQ and XLK below...The euro started the week as the top performer while sterling lagged...JP Morgan beat earnings thanks to stellar trading operations, which helped....Today, EUR is the strongest, GBP the weakest, deepening the Premium Insight&....Economic data picks up with US CPI next...The Premium long in EURCAD finaly hit its final target for 260-pip gain here...nbsp;....The insanity in Tesla's stock price on Monday is indicative of the mood in....The $250 rise in its stock price to start the day was its entire market cap....The reversal took many of the high-flying tech stocks with it and the....1%....This could simply be another bump in the road in a rally that's spanned....It's a reminder that this is an emotion-driven market and greed can flip....That argues for laser focus on risk management...Watch QQQ SOX XLK....Pay attention to the massive bearish engulfing daily candle on QQQ, Philly....SOX eyes next crucial support at 1998/99, QQQ is vulnerable to break below 256....This move could be reinforced if US bank earnings outperform and accelerate the....Earnings season picks up this week and that will add an extra layer of intrigue...Looking ahead, the US June inflation report is due at 1230 GMT...The consensus is for just a 0...6% y/y rise in prices but even a significant miss wouldn't rattle the....The detail to focus on will be hourly and weekly earnings, which are forecast....4% and 6...5% y/y, respectively...Those numbers highlight the boost from enhanced unemployment benefits and are a....In terms of the Fed, a speech from Brainard at 1800 GMT will be notable...She was the lone dissenter at the top ranks of the FOMC in the banks'....Alternatively, she could focus on the economy and lay out her views on what&....She's not afraid to go against the grain and her thoughts are worth heeding.
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Intraday Market Thought: Key Support Levels مستويات الدعم الحاسمة
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 6, 2020 14:09We opened access to Thursday's Premium video...Save yourself time and jump straight to part 4:50 mins of the video for those....Then check Friday's price action...لا تضيع وقتك: إذهب مباشرة الى مقطع 11:45 دقيقة من فيديو مساء الخميس لتجد ما....nbsp; بعد ذالك تأكد ما حدث يوم الجمعة من حيث التصحيحات ....nbsp; .. -
Intraday Market Thought: Deal Dance & Hand-Holding
by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2020 22:43
Markets soured on the prospects for a US stimulus deal to start the week but....As for hand-holding, it is close to what Ashraf did to the WhatsApp Broadcast....The Swiss franc was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...GBP shurgged Friday's tough Brexit talk as the EU delegation landed in....The yen was the top performer last week while the Australian dollar lagged...CFTC positioning data shows the euro's vulnerability...More US housing data is due Tuesday as that market continues to boom...Below are Ashraf's NASDAQ calls to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group during the....The game of deal-or-no-deal on both sides of the Atlantic was in high gear....In Europe, a call between Frost and Barnier appeared to thaw negotiations....A reminder of the stakes came after the close on Friday when Moody's lowered....The cited a soft economy and an erosion in fiscal strength but also added that....rdquo;....In the US, talked between Mnuchin and Pelosi continued ahead of the Tuesday....Reports that Pelosi highlighted fundamental differences in values to....That spilled over to commodity currencies as they gave back early gains...There are two options now: Bet on an outcome or wait for clear news...There have been so many fakeouts in both these negotiations that it's tough....In all likelihood, markets are still placing a high probability on some kind....Perhaps that sits at 80/20 in both instances, if not lower for stimulus...Of course, neither of those are occurring in a vacuum...Ireland closed non-essential retail for six weeks on Monday with European cases....Q4 GDP throughout the continent is deteriorating along with optimism about....In the US, voting and election campaigning continue, while there has....That likely reflects an over-reliance on history repeating itself but financial....The failure of a short-term stimulus deal followed by a divided Congress....Many of the trades in the coming days will be taken as developments happen but....The power of low rates was on full display with the US home builder....Tuesday is housing starts, which are forecast to rise 2...8% with associated permits up 2...0%....Some time in 2021 or beyond, the rises in home equity will be a large tailwind....CFTC Commitments of Traders...Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +168K vs +174K prior...GBP -10K vs -11K prior...JPY +20K vs +21K prior...CHF +12K vs +13K prior...CAD -14K vs -18K prior...AUD +4K vs +11K prior...NZD +6K vs +5K prior....The euro net continues to drift lower after hitting a record in July but..
