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Results: 341 to 350 of 1,000
Results: 341 to 350 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Slow Motion Tantrum & VVIX
by Adam Button | Jul 8, 2021 13:12
Equities dip in a broader bout of risk-off on a combination of travel....The relentless bid in bonds continued on Wednesday as the paradigm of bond and....CHF and JPY are the strongest, followed by EUR, while NZD and AUD are at the....US initial jobless claims came in higher than expected (373K vs exp 350K)....Ashraf kept reiterating the message to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group Members:....The long USDJPY trade did not work out well, but it was later compensated with....This risk-off is not stopping soon...This VVIX/VIX chart was shared with our the Group earlier...For an explanation on how to use/read the VVIX/VIX, please see this video...Convincing explanations for falling yields remain elusive with technical....One factor that can't be ignored is the Fed...The drop in yields accelerated after the June 16 FOMC and that's not a....The kneejerk reaction was to push yields higher on a taper but the message now....That they could taper/hike as growth slows and temporary inflation recedes...The FOMC minutes underscored the delicate balance...They said a 'substantial majority' of participants judged that....In a sense, this could be a different kind of taper tantrum...Technically, there isn't much support until 1...23%, where the 200-day moving average currently resides...Where it gets interesting is the reflexivity embedded in the Fed...They cheered rising yields earlier in the year and will be cognizant that....Beyond that, there's a conundrum that Fed and other central bank buying....Ultimately though, the only way forward is to watch for headlines, economic data....July signals are often hazy so we have no expectation that this puzzle will be....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Macklem vs Powell vs Orr
by Adam Button | Jul 14, 2021 14:17Overnight, the RBNZ signalled it will end QE (fully tapers) this month...Moments ago, Powell's prepared speech indicated inflation is well below....Yesterday, a Fed official brushed off a high CPI print but after a weak bond....The US dollar is down across the board ,with the kiwi leading the pack...The Bank of Canada decision is at 2 pm GMT, followed by Macklem's speech 1....Ashrafs suggested for the WhatsApp Broadcast Group a 2-pronged trade on CAD....US June CPI rose 5...4% compared to 4...9% y/y expected in the largest rise since 2008...Core and monthly numbers were similarly strong and the initial reaction in the....As the minutes ticked by though, the dollar strength began to fade...Part of that was market participants picking apart the report...The jump in used car prices is undoubtedly transitory...They rose another 10% in June for a 45% y/y increase – a shocking number....There were other quirks too, including energy and some durable goods...In all, 6 items accounted for 55% of the increase in June...As that was digested, the US dollar gave back its gains, even completing the....There are lingering concerns though...Rent inflation has risen in consecutive months in what could be a long-term....The dollar got a second lift on a 30-year bond auction...The yield at 2...000% was much higher than 1...976% expected and that triggered a second rally in the dollar and a....05%....The price action looks a bit like bonds reversing the recent gains or pricing in....As yields ticked up, stocks also ticked lower...In the day ahead, we will get the BOC decision and Powell testimony...For the BOC, a taper is in the cards and a strong consensus has emerged around....Also keep a close eye on forecasts as inflation is likely to move higher and....That's because recent lockdowns didn't weight on growth as much as expected and....For Powell, the main message of transitory inflation is unlikely to....On Tuesday, SF Fed President Daly offered an early hint at a taper....That fits with market expectations but a reiteration from Powell would firm up.. -
Intraday Market Thought: We're a ways away
by Adam Button | Jul 29, 2021 12:54
quot;I think we're a ways away from having had substantial further progress....This was the most decisive sentence from yesterday's Fed press....nbsp; As soon as Ashraf read this phrase, he immediately alerted the....Powell and the FOMC shifted communication to signal that they're....The US dollar initially jumped on the Fed decision (because of removing "....Yesterday's pre-FOMC Premium trade is already +70 pips in the green...nbsp;The first look at Q2 US GDP is up next...nbsp;....The first surprise came in the FOMC statement when the text was changed to....This was to reflect that that the US economy is closer to the '....Powell underscored that in the statement by saying there was still 'some....nbsp; He later repeated that same line, indicating it was planned...It's also a departure from two weeks earlier when he said they were '....Powell also twice deferred to the committee regarding inflation and risks....That suggests there's disagreement on whether or not price rises will prove....Expect plenty of commentary along those lines in weeks ahead from the hawks and....In terms of the market, the initial shift in communication boosted the....The thinking there may be that while a taper is inching closer, there's no....We will be carefully watching for any shift as the implications are digested...Looking ahead, the advance look at Q2 GDP is up at 1230 GMT on Thursday....The consensus for GDP is an annualized pace of 8...6%, reflecting the reopening...Indications on business investment and inventories will be the place to watch...This week the IMF stretched out the timeline for the US recovery on some of....Ultimately that may be good news as it will keep the Fed from rapidly..
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Intraday Market Thought: Kabul Fills Jackson Hole
by Adam Button | Aug 26, 2021 20:18
The ink was barely dry on the rising yields narrative before news of two....As Ashraf indicated, geopolitical risks weigh on markets when US interests....The last time this happened was in January 2020 when US soldiers were....The US dollar is stronger against all currencies, with the yen the least weak....US initial jobless claims edged up while the 2nd reading of Q2 GDP edged lower...We should also mention how US yields initially shot up as a result of hawkish....nbsp;A new FX trade was issued to Premium members...nbsp;....Markets were settled into a bit of a lull ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole....The main themes of equity strength and yen weakness continued Wednesday but....A larger change was in the sovereign bond market where yields rose the most....There's no clear catalyst but we're reminded of the June/early-July drop....It later turned out that the bond market was dialed into what was coming with....Is there a new signal brewing? It's far too early to say...US 10-year yields rose 4 basis points to 1...34%, which is only back to August 13 levels and far from 1...60% pre-delta...The obvious catalyst for higher rates is the better sentiment on delta, but it....Technically, there's reason to expect the move to extend...The double bottom at 1...12% in July/August hasn't been tested with lows near 1...23% last week despite the jitters...A climb above the August high of 1...38% would add to the case for higher rates and, by extension, higher USD/JPY...Nonetheless, US 10 yr yields must first cross above the 55-DMA of 1...34%....In Asia-Pacific trading there was another hint from the Bank of Korea, who....75%....Economists were split on the move ahead of time but rising consumer debt, a hot....Officials had been signaling a rate hike since May but that was delayed by a....Could that be a hint about what's coming from the Fed?..
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Intraday Market Thought: FOMC Consistent with Jackson Hole
by Adam Button | Sep 23, 2021 13:52
The FOMC upped its hawkish message on Wednesday, but the market reaction was....There is an explanation in the final paragraph on why FX held and indices....nbsp; GBP is up after the BoE showed more optimism in its statement/....nbsp;The Canadian dollar is the top performer while the yen lagged on the....Canadian retail sales fell by less than expected and US jobless claims edged up....A new Premium FX trade was issued ahead of yesterday's FOMC statement...Below is some of our analysis on the Fed's new dot plot, Powell's....nbsp;....nbsp;....Wednesday's risk tone grew more positive after Evergrade said it would....A report in AsiaMarkets also said that a bailout is coming...Finally, comments from the RBA's Debelle along with Powell hinted at a....Understandably, some market participants may not have wanted to react to the....The FOMC statement itself was neutral but the 2022 dots moved to show a 9-9....All but one dot (from 5) now show at least one hike in 2023 with the....In his press conference, Powell was surprisingly candid on a taper, saying....He also outlined that the taper would be completed around the middle of next....All this was more hawkish than anticipated but dollar strength was mild...In bonds we saw the 'policy error' trade kick off again with the long....Stocks remained comfortable though and that may underscore the push and pull....Ashraf reminds us in this video from 4 weeks ago why the taper will not be....nbsp; ....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Yen Extremes & Opportunities
by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 30, 2022 19:58
Thinning year-end volatility is no excuse to ignore a few interesting....Whether it is the 11th weekly consecutive advance for EURUSD, the....The former can be attributed to a combination of deepening inversion in....The yen's moves are particularly significant despite the recent....The same can be said about gold and silver as they advance over the past 2....Metals' resilience is also setting up to be a major theme of 2023-24...nbsp; But let's talk more about the yen...nbsp;....CURRENCIES PERFORMANCE VS GOLD....The above charts illustrate currencies' performance vs gold...The the bottom right chart (2022), shows USD is the only G10 currency to have....4%....The yen, is the second weakest currency, down 13% vs gold...As I explained in chapter 1 of my book the secular approach to measuring....nbsp;....You will note that in the 14 years between 2009 and 2022, the yen has....Weakest in 2009, 2012, 2021 and 2nd weakest in 2022...Strongest in 2010, 2011, 2016 and 2018...In three other years (2014, 2015, 2017 and 2019) the yen was nearly the....Hardly ever the yen's performance was middle of the range...nbsp;....How about the same charts for yen and others going back to 1993? No problem,....What will you notice? You will find the yen's risk-off or risk-on function....Although we have never seen the yen at its weakest over two consecutive years,....How? The yen was the weakest in 1995 and 2nd weakest in 1996—just like....So what happened in 1995-6? The BoJ cut rates down to 0...5% in 1996 from as high as 6...0% in 1990...Can the yen pull off a recovery in 2023? You have 30 years' worth of charts....Will it be a retreat in yields? Will the Bank of Japan finally end yield curve....nbsp; So much to ponder, so many frameworks to consider...Enjoy the Holidays and best wishes for a busy, happy and healthy new year...nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Typical Errors on Gold, Silver, USD
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 1, 2024 16:14
I've often said in order to better assess the solidity of a gold selloff or....I shall not go into the details of examining the technicals of copper and....Instead, let's focus with illustrations on XAG and DXY...Just as we gleaned valuable information from silver and USD during the low....nbsp; Gold has yet to make any notable pullback since breaking its 4-year....Silver, however, has not yet broken its own 4-year trendline resistance...nbsp;....As long as silver rally does not show the same potency and momentum shown by....Watch today's action for instance, how all currencies are down against the....To better understand the above thesis, take a look at Summer 2020 (blue shaded....In that case, the gold rally and USD plunge was a result of unprecedented....Selling USD, buying indices and buying metals was the easiest and most....nbsp; As long as both the Gold/Silver ratio and DXY are moving closely....A similar example to Spring-Summer 2020 was spring 2021...A contrary example to the above two cases was summer 2022--when the Gold/....There are two clear reasons why this information is vital and useful for....1...It will help you avoid committing the amateur error of blindly shorting the US....2...It will help you avoid buying silver erroneously and irresponsibly (just....nbsp;....Charts wise, instead of focusing on silver technicals, go straight to the....nbsp;....Zooming on the daily chart, you will find EURUSD, GBPUSD and AUDUSD mostly....In effect, they're reverting to their medium term support...If you have read the above 290 words of this analysis, then I shall reward you....1...As long as silver is not breaking key technical upside (or downside), then we....nbsp;....2...Said differently, the inverse correlation between silver and US dollar....3...Identifying what is in fact the USD is also part of the equation...Using USD/CNH can help avoid the traps of DXY, which gives more weight to EUR....nbsp;....Overnight, hours after the Monday Asia open (5:16 am British Summer....Indeedm gold peaked at 2265...nbsp;....This is the same WBG to which I shared why $2185 was going to be the target for....nbsp;....The Group was also told of the $2222 target, 10 days before it occured...The explanations, calculations and rationales are all documented on our WBG....nbsp; Ill be happy to share all upon request...Finally, I shared with the Group a unique quantitative rationale on why....nbsp;....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Politics Overcrowding, RBA Next
by Adam Button | Feb 6, 2017 22:57
Too often market commentators infuse politics into trading when it's a....The yen was the top performer to start the week while the Canadian dollar....The RBA decision is due up next...In the Premium video below "Gold Stands up to USD", Ashraf explains....Economists love to talk about politics...If you turned on CNBC any time over the past decade, the conversation would....Minor changes were blown out of proportion while central banking and....For years, the best trade was to ignore politics and focus on everything else....Not since the financial crisis do political headlines and polls matter so....It started with Brexit and is increasing daily...The political ebb and flow is the trade most days and it's not going to....If you look at the past twenty years, the underlying trend of open borders,....The political actors changed but the story stayed the same, hence, the rules....With the Brexit vote and Trump's election it's clear that the game is....Brexit at first was treated as an isolated incident but it's now....The next fronts are France and Germany...Anti-EU National Front candidate Marine Le Pen continues to poll well as she....Will she benefit from Socialist candidate Emmanuel Macron's loss of....In Germany, the pendulum might be swinging in the other direction....Mexico also appears to be swinging to the Left...What's clear is that the tectonic plates are shifting...There is still some sense of denial in markets that real change is coming but....At the moment, no one knows exactly what the change will look like but....In the short-term what it means is that central bankers are less important that....A case in point will be the 0330 GMT RBA decision...The market is pricing less than a 15% chance of a hike or cut before year end...Unless the statement contains something dramatic, those numbers will hardly move...And without a credible threat on rates, then the inevitable anti-AUD jawboning..
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Intraday Market Thought: Poloz Punts, USD Loses Grip
by Adam Button | Jun 28, 2018 10:03
USD struggling to preserve its earlier gains of the day after some data....Before we preview today's key speech from Bank of England's Andy Haldane....The market initially interpreted comments from BOC Governor Poloz as....The US dollar was the top performer and the New Zealand dollar lagged and....A new index trade has been issued for Premium trades based on the same system....A speech from BOC Governor Poloz was the highlight of the day and USD/CAD was....3300 in anticipation, despite another jump in oil prices and a broad rise in....The talk was his last opportunity to clarify the outlook ahead of the July 11....After he spoke, the odds of a hike initially fell to 50% from 60%....The comments were mostly focused on BoC communication style and there wasn't....That's what sparked a rally to 1...3380 from 1...3310...However, Poloz hosted a press conference later with a different tone...He said the BOC's narrative of growth and gradual hikes appears to be....He also said the BOC won't consider trade hypotheticals in its decision...All told, there was the clear impression that Poloz hadn't yet made up his....If anything, he endorsed that kind of volatility as a good thing...Overall, he seemed to be leaning towards hiking...His final comments were much more explicit and that was reflected in a USD/....3329...With some time to digest, it could fall even further but that might depend on....USD is struggling to hold on to its earlier gains of the day after downward....0% from 2...2% and a 9K rise in US jobless claims...The USD was boosted on Wednesday by a smaller goods trade deficit and a large....That sent the euro and pound within striking distance of the June lows...BoE's Haldane speech at 14:30 London will be crucial in swaying expectations....Odds of an August rate hike aere at 67% compared to 73% last week and 45% two....GBPUSD is testing key support at 1...3050, while EURGBP broke above its 200-DMA for the first time in 4 months...Elsewhere, the RNBZ held rates at 1...75%, as expected...The statement once again had a nod to possibly moving rates up or down and....Most of the weakness in NZD/USD came before the meeting in a broad-USD bid....6800 and a fall as low as 0...6784 before a quick rebound...Technically, it will be a critical chart to watch on the weekly close.
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Intraday Market Thought: Indices, Silver & Trade Winds
by Adam Button | Sep 23, 2019 14:01
Global equity indices are back in the red with silver sharply higher on....The Euro is on the backfoot after German PMI manufacturing sustained its shapest....Draghi's speech at the European Parliament starts at 9:00 am Eastern (2....Today's appearancees from Fed members include NY Fed's Williams,....Louis Fed's Bullard (who voted for a 50-bp rate cut last week)....It is official, the Fed's liquidity injections are here to stay for another....GBP awaits Tuesday's UK Supreme Court ruling on the proroguing of....Euro shorts stormed back in the latest CFTC data...All 3 existing trades from the Premium Insights are in the green...http://ashraflaidi...com/forex-poll/will-fed-do-qe4....Reports and denials about Chinese officials leave trade talks early....Markets were roiled late on Friday on a report that Chinese officials had....Risk trades dropped on a sign that talks had come undone; something that was....On the weekend, however, both sides released statements saying that mid-....A NYT report said the trips were cancelled by the Chinese side to avoid....That led to early buying in yen crosses...It also underscored how sensitive markets will continue to be to any sign....Looking ahead, GBP traders are eagerly awaiting Tuesday's UK Supreme Court....In the US, the September prelim US PMIs from Markit are due at 1345 GMT...The manufacturing reading is expected at 50...4 and services at 51...5; both improvements from August...Fedspeak includes Williams, Daly and Bullard...Silver outperforms all, while gold pulls back from Sunday night's high as....Fed's Injections Extended to Oct 10....After four bouts of injections last week, the Federal Reserve has decided to....24, Sept...26 and Sept...27...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -69K vs -50K prior...GBP -86K vs -92K prior...JPY +24K vs +33K prior...CHF -5K vs -7K prior...CAD +20K vs +12K prior...AUD -59K vs -61K prior...NZD -36K vs -30K prior....Euro shorts had faded to 39K at the start of the month but they have been....The divergence in CAD positioning versus the antipodeans continues to diverge.
