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  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin & Ethereum Webinar

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 26, 2017 13:42
    Bitcoin & Ethereum Webinar Chart On Jul 4th webinar, when Bitcoin traded at $2590, I mentioned the technical and....12 days later, Bitcoin fell to $1800...nbsp;  Today's price is at $2540, down $400 over the last 2 days....Find out why & what's ahead in Monday's webinar.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Wednesday Webinar with Ashraf Laidi

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 5, 2017 9:53
    Wednesday Webinar with Ashraf Laidi Chart In case you cannot attend Thursday's London seminar, Ashraf is holding a....Click here for registration.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Drug Sparks Hope, China Contracts

    by Adam Button | Apr 17, 2020 12:46
    Drug Sparks Hope, China Contracts Chart An article on the effectiveness of Gildead drug Remdesivir in treating....The Canadian dollar was the top performer while the yen lagged...China's GDP shrank by 6...8% in Q1, posting the first contraction in over 4 decades...More below)....Both of the trades in DOW30 and EURUSD were stopped out...A new trade will be issued ahead of the US cash open...Markets generally chopped sideways Wednesday until a late-breaking report....A video leaked to STAT showed University of Chicago researchers talking about a....They said that “most” had recovered and only two died...The officials in the private video cautioned against drawing conclusions....Stock futures jumped 2...5% and yen crosses climbed, albeit more cautiously...The company has previously said it expects to publish preliminary results....If confirmed, the news could be a game-changer...An effective therapy would dramatically tilt the balance towards re-opening....At the same time, the economic damage in the current situation continues to come....US jobless claims rose by another 5...2 million and the April Philly Fed hit a 40-year low of -56...6...China's GDP contraction data maybe a rear-view mirror, but serves as a....The GDP figures will likely force Beijing to issue additional stimulus to..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed "Put" Pedal to the Metal

    by Adam Button | Apr 29, 2020 22:18
    Fed Put Pedal to the Metal Chart Powell left no doubt that the Federal Reserve will support risk assets no....Bitcoin lead cryptos to hit 8950...The New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The ECB is up next...Tuesday's  Premium long in the DAX hit its final target 11240, while....60 and Long Bitcoin at 6200 remain both open...Three other trades remain open...nbsp; Below is the strikethrough comparison text from today's FOMC....Any hawkish hint from the Fed would have been a threat to suddenly-cheerful....The Fed chair was abundantly clear that they are prepared to do more if there is....It's a classic Fed put and markets sniffed it out ahead of time with the....The US dollar was soft ahead of the FOMC and drifted lower afterwards...Interesting spots to watch in the day ahead will be gold, silver and bitcoin...The day ahead features another round of US initial jobless claims but despite....The larger event will be the ECB at 1145 GMT and Lagarde at 1230 GMT...The ECB President will see Powell as a blueprint for how to communicate but the....The ECB doesn't have the same powers and flexibility as the Fed so threats..

  • Intraday Market Thought: VIX at 2 Month Lows, GBP Hit

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 7, 2020 15:05
    VIX at 2 Month Lows, GBP Hit Chart Global risk appetite improves across the board after US-China officials....GBP lost its post-BoE gain to break below 1...23, dragging down all GBP crosses...US weekly jobless claims hit nearly 3...2 mn last week, down from 3...8 million the prior week and the record 6...9 mn seen in late March...Total claims have now reached 33 mn over the past 7 weeks...The VIX is nearing its lowest level in over 2 months, while oil attempts....00...4 out of the existing 5 Premium Trades are currently in the green...داخل اليورو و الين و المؤشرات...The US Treasury's plan to borrow nearly $3 trillion between April and....This may not be an immediate problem as long as the Federal Reserve is ready to....But the fact that the debt jubilee (debt forgiveness) has been making the rounds....Meanwhile, in a sign of stabilisation, US indices have not had a +(-) 3% day in....SPX eyes 2920 and DOW30 24180/200...GBP was temporarily boosted by the BoE's decision to vote unanimously at....10% and bond purchases steady a £645 bn...As cable retests 1...2280s, EURGBP extends gains towards 0...8830s.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Traders' Visibility Clouded

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 11, 2020 18:01
    Traders' Visibility Clouded Chart Traders' visibility is being further reduced as price consolidation persists....Friday's release of the US jobs report showing a drop of 20...5 mln jobs and a 14...7% jobless rate prompted Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari to predict that the....A confrontational ECB response to Germany's constitutional part to....The PBOC said will use “more powerful” policies...A new Premium trade was opened today and another on Friday...The USDJPY trade was closed for 110 pips...US indices have been in a relatively quiet range, with the DOW30 not showing....Bond yields are on the rise, VIX fell below its 100-DMA and EURUSD remains....08...Goldman Sachs equity strategy team released a report, predicting indices....They expect a 27% drop in capital expenditure and zero plans for growth....As countries and cities deal with the challenging task of gradual re-opening,....China has already announced that the Northeastern city of Shulan has been put....Further adding to the confusion/consolidation is the swinging pendulum..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Stimulus Exhaustion & European Woes

    by Adam Button | Oct 16, 2020 18:47
    Stimulus Exhaustion & European Woes Chart Markets moved from US-Stimulus exhaustion to shrugging Boris Johnson&....Traders turn to end of Oct-late Nov as the next calendar point for a Brexit....Europe got a double dose of bad news on Thursday as Brexit talks went badly and....Today's market flows are more of the same --further retracing of Wednesday&....before fresh declines next Tuesday....Higher than expected US retail sales proved a non-event...The US dollar led the way while the kiwi lagged as risk trades stumbled...Look out for the US retail sales report on Friday...Earlier this week, the DAX Premium trade hit the final target in less than....Each of the current 4 Premium trades are currently in the green...nbsp;  ....Back to the virus story...A number of countries set new-case records this week including Germany on....Granted that comes on many tests and hosptializations remain low but what is....A week earlier there were 4010 cases in Germany...The +80% w/w rise is terrifying and quick increases in the region have....This is all likely to lead to Q4 growth downgrades...The clearest signal Thursday came from the German bund market where yields fell....59% to end a medium-term consolidation pattern...With that the euro grows increasingly vulnerable, particularly against the....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: DXY Tests Key Levels

    by Adam Button | Mar 24, 2021 17:43
    DXY Tests Key Levels Chart As the US dollar index (DXY) reaches its 200-DMA for the 1st time since May of....That is expecially the case if oil makes a fresh descent under 58...00...Below is the latest Premium video, highlighting what to watch for in oil....nbsp;....Wednesday saw another divergence between DOW30 and NASDAQ as bond yields pushed....But DOW30 remains unabel to regain the 32780s just as NASDAQ remains supported....How about Tuesday's action? Unlike recent risk selloffs, Tuesday's wasn&....Instead, it was a classic flight to safety with 10-year yields down 7 bps....That points to some genuine jitters surrounding the virus...In particular, the new wave of the virus continues to harm the outlook in Europe,....The Bank of Spain who lowered domestic GDP assumptions to 6% from 6...8%....Oil was particularly hard hit once again and it fell below the 50-day moving....More coverage of oil and its potential repercussions on the rest of the market....nbsp;....How much of the trade is genuinely fundamental and how much is....The moves since the US election have been one-way and whether it was virus....But is it over? Signs on Tuesday weren't great as oil broke below last week&....More specificaly, NZD went from correcting to plunging after PM Jacinda....Probability of a RBNZ rate hike has fallen to below 15% from over 25% last..

  • Intraday Market Thought: EM Heat up, Crypto Speed Down

    by Adam Button | Jun 8, 2021 15:57
    Many emerging markets are far behind in battles against covid but the market is....Cryptos resume their plunge amid fresh reports of China's crackdown on....The US JOLTS report for April showed job openings soared by nearly one million....All currencies are down vs the US dollar today, except for CHF...You can learn how to use this info (of currency strength/weakess) in part 0:23....A new Premium trade was posted earlier today with 2 charts and 5 supporting....nbsp; ....JOLTS rose by 998,000 to 9...3 million, reaching the highest since late 2000, but the data also showed....nbsp;....Even in the early days of the pandemic, the market showed a remarkable ability....Looking over the past two months, the Brazilian real is the top performing....Both countries were ravaged by covid but will benefit from high commodity prices....Virtually every EM currency is higher against the dollar in the past two....If this is the start of the economic cycle, then emerging markets are a great....Ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus in developed countries will feedback into....Domestic economies will also stabilize once the pandemic passes...Beware though of emerging markets that are large importers...Turkey and India are particularly vulnerable as higher prices could cause....Markets are now set to prepare for Thursday's release of the US CPI....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Shift Boosts Dollar, Yen Holds

    by Adam Button | Jun 17, 2021 14:48
    Fed Shift Boosts Dollar, Yen Holds Chart The US dollar is having its best week in 9 months, while gold saw its biggest....The yen is the only gainer vs USD, while CHF and EUR and the weakest...US jobless claims rose by more than expected and the Philly Fed unexpectedly....Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, we highlighted the risk of a hawkish shift....Previously there were no hikes priced in for 2023 but now the median sees two...In addition, 7 of the 18 Fed members now see a hike in 2022...quot;Many participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions....rdquo;....He tempered that slightly by saying that the taper threshold of 'substantial&....Cable fell through 1...40 and the euro through 1...20...It's now clear that the inflation data has spooked many at the FOMC...Powell had previously highlighted employment as the key metric but even....Instead, Powell is now relying on forecasts that employment will pick up....This isn't just a superficial shift...The timeline for a taper and hike have now moved up...The Eurodollar market is fully priced for a hike in 2022...US 5-year note yields rose by 11 bps to 0...89%....The change undercuts the Fed's hard won credibility on patience and....Given the crowded bets against the US dollar, the move could run.
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