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  • Intraday Market Thought: VIX at 2 Month Lows, GBP Hit

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 7, 2020 15:05
    VIX at 2 Month Lows, GBP Hit Chart Global risk appetite improves across the board after US-China officials....GBP lost its post-BoE gain to break below 1...23, dragging down all GBP crosses...US weekly jobless claims hit nearly 3...2 mn last week, down from 3...8 million the prior week and the record 6...9 mn seen in late March...Total claims have now reached 33 mn over the past 7 weeks...The VIX is nearing its lowest level in over 2 months, while oil attempts....00...4 out of the existing 5 Premium Trades are currently in the green...داخل اليورو و الين و المؤشرات...The US Treasury's plan to borrow nearly $3 trillion between April and....This may not be an immediate problem as long as the Federal Reserve is ready to....But the fact that the debt jubilee (debt forgiveness) has been making the rounds....Meanwhile, in a sign of stabilisation, US indices have not had a +(-) 3% day in....SPX eyes 2920 and DOW30 24180/200...GBP was temporarily boosted by the BoE's decision to vote unanimously at....10% and bond purchases steady a £645 bn...As cable retests 1...2280s, EURGBP extends gains towards 0...8830s.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Traders' Visibility Clouded

    by Ashraf Laidi | May 11, 2020 18:01
    Traders' Visibility Clouded Chart Traders' visibility is being further reduced as price consolidation persists....Friday's release of the US jobs report showing a drop of 20...5 mln jobs and a 14...7% jobless rate prompted Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari to predict that the....A confrontational ECB response to Germany's constitutional part to....The PBOC said will use “more powerful” policies...A new Premium trade was opened today and another on Friday...The USDJPY trade was closed for 110 pips...US indices have been in a relatively quiet range, with the DOW30 not showing....Bond yields are on the rise, VIX fell below its 100-DMA and EURUSD remains....08...Goldman Sachs equity strategy team released a report, predicting indices....They expect a 27% drop in capital expenditure and zero plans for growth....As countries and cities deal with the challenging task of gradual re-opening,....China has already announced that the Northeastern city of Shulan has been put....Further adding to the confusion/consolidation is the swinging pendulum..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Stimulus Exhaustion & European Woes

    by Adam Button | Oct 16, 2020 18:47
    Stimulus Exhaustion & European Woes Chart Markets moved from US-Stimulus exhaustion to shrugging Boris Johnson&....Traders turn to end of Oct-late Nov as the next calendar point for a Brexit....Europe got a double dose of bad news on Thursday as Brexit talks went badly and....Today's market flows are more of the same --further retracing of Wednesday&....before fresh declines next Tuesday....Higher than expected US retail sales proved a non-event...The US dollar led the way while the kiwi lagged as risk trades stumbled...Look out for the US retail sales report on Friday...Earlier this week, the DAX Premium trade hit the final target in less than....Each of the current 4 Premium trades are currently in the green...nbsp;  ....Back to the virus story...A number of countries set new-case records this week including Germany on....Granted that comes on many tests and hosptializations remain low but what is....A week earlier there were 4010 cases in Germany...The +80% w/w rise is terrifying and quick increases in the region have....This is all likely to lead to Q4 growth downgrades...The clearest signal Thursday came from the German bund market where yields fell....59% to end a medium-term consolidation pattern...With that the euro grows increasingly vulnerable, particularly against the....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: DXY Tests Key Levels

    by Adam Button | Mar 24, 2021 17:43
    DXY Tests Key Levels Chart As the US dollar index (DXY) reaches its 200-DMA for the 1st time since May of....That is expecially the case if oil makes a fresh descent under 58...00...Below is the latest Premium video, highlighting what to watch for in oil....nbsp;....Wednesday saw another divergence between DOW30 and NASDAQ as bond yields pushed....But DOW30 remains unabel to regain the 32780s just as NASDAQ remains supported....How about Tuesday's action? Unlike recent risk selloffs, Tuesday's wasn&....Instead, it was a classic flight to safety with 10-year yields down 7 bps....That points to some genuine jitters surrounding the virus...In particular, the new wave of the virus continues to harm the outlook in Europe,....The Bank of Spain who lowered domestic GDP assumptions to 6% from 6...8%....Oil was particularly hard hit once again and it fell below the 50-day moving....More coverage of oil and its potential repercussions on the rest of the market....nbsp;....How much of the trade is genuinely fundamental and how much is....The moves since the US election have been one-way and whether it was virus....But is it over? Signs on Tuesday weren't great as oil broke below last week&....More specificaly, NZD went from correcting to plunging after PM Jacinda....Probability of a RBNZ rate hike has fallen to below 15% from over 25% last..

  • Intraday Market Thought: EM Heat up, Crypto Speed Down

    by Adam Button | Jun 8, 2021 15:57
    Many emerging markets are far behind in battles against covid but the market is....Cryptos resume their plunge amid fresh reports of China's crackdown on....The US JOLTS report for April showed job openings soared by nearly one million....All currencies are down vs the US dollar today, except for CHF...You can learn how to use this info (of currency strength/weakess) in part 0:23....A new Premium trade was posted earlier today with 2 charts and 5 supporting....nbsp; ....JOLTS rose by 998,000 to 9...3 million, reaching the highest since late 2000, but the data also showed....nbsp;....Even in the early days of the pandemic, the market showed a remarkable ability....Looking over the past two months, the Brazilian real is the top performing....Both countries were ravaged by covid but will benefit from high commodity prices....Virtually every EM currency is higher against the dollar in the past two....If this is the start of the economic cycle, then emerging markets are a great....Ongoing fiscal and monetary stimulus in developed countries will feedback into....Domestic economies will also stabilize once the pandemic passes...Beware though of emerging markets that are large importers...Turkey and India are particularly vulnerable as higher prices could cause....Markets are now set to prepare for Thursday's release of the US CPI....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Shift Boosts Dollar, Yen Holds

    by Adam Button | Jun 17, 2021 14:48
    Fed Shift Boosts Dollar, Yen Holds Chart The US dollar is having its best week in 9 months, while gold saw its biggest....The yen is the only gainer vs USD, while CHF and EUR and the weakest...US jobless claims rose by more than expected and the Philly Fed unexpectedly....Ahead of Wednesday's FOMC, we highlighted the risk of a hawkish shift....Previously there were no hikes priced in for 2023 but now the median sees two...In addition, 7 of the 18 Fed members now see a hike in 2022...quot;Many participants are more comfortable that the economic conditions....rdquo;....He tempered that slightly by saying that the taper threshold of 'substantial&....Cable fell through 1...40 and the euro through 1...20...It's now clear that the inflation data has spooked many at the FOMC...Powell had previously highlighted employment as the key metric but even....Instead, Powell is now relying on forecasts that employment will pick up....This isn't just a superficial shift...The timeline for a taper and hike have now moved up...The Eurodollar market is fully priced for a hike in 2022...US 5-year note yields rose by 11 bps to 0...89%....The change undercuts the Fed's hard won credibility on patience and....Given the crowded bets against the US dollar, the move could run.

  • Intraday Market Thought: A Turn or a Hiccup?

    by Adam Button | Jun 21, 2021 14:55
    A Turn or a Hiccup? Chart A central bank turning hawkish is undoubtedly one of the great currency....Do NOT forget Powell will testify on the economy Tuesday at 2 pm Eastern...US 10 yr yield respected its 3-mth trendline support, while XAUUSD did the....The Fed decision was undoubtedly a surprise last week...The dots moved further than nearly anyone anticipated but it wasn't....After all, the dots have a poor track record of predicting rate moves and have....What also changed was that Powell went from a wait-and-see mode on data to....On Friday, St Louis Fed President (and noted hawk) Jim Bullard underscore the....What may have been less appreciated was how he benchmarked his rate hike on....He said that strong inflation of 2...5-3...0% through 2022 would meet the framework for justifying a rate hike...That's still a high bar...Many market watchers are declaring the current round of high inflation as the....Even Fed hawks haven't abandoned 2022 inflation as that period...Ultimately, the market will fall back on looking at inflation and prices rising....Some of the bottlenecks pushing up prices now – used cars for....So while we have seen some impressive moves that have no doubt been....The question through is how far to ride this move and when to fade it...Monday's price action will offer plentiful hints.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Crypto Stabilization Ahead?

    by Adam Button | Jun 23, 2021 18:30
    Crypto Stabilization Ahead? Chart What looked like a technical collapse in crypto prices on Tuesday turned into an....In FX, last week's US dollar rally continued to unwind with a growing....Ashraf cautions us to watch the renewed outperformance of Tech stocks vs....53/4% anytime soon, raising questions about growth and inflation...Ashraf also reminds us of the persistent higher lows in percentage daily....Even by the wild standards of the crypto market, Tuesday's move was....It looked grim for bitcoin early in New York trade as it broke through $31,000....As headlines flashed that it had wiped out all the gains for 2021, it came back....Evidently there were buyers waiting for a dip below $30,000 and they pounced...That was followed by a FOMO rally that took it to $34,200 at the time of....The pain elsewhere was larger and the bounces haven't been as impressive...That may be a hint that flows are traveling from alt coins into bitcoin...If that's the case, it may only be a temporary respite...That said, price action can turn into its own fuel for a rally...Overall, the breaks of some key support levels throughout the market aren't....There is a chance for a false breakout and reversal here but that would be a....We will be watching very closely and staying nimble in the days ahead...One slight tailwind for crypto has been the continued decline of the dollar...We're watching AUD/USD very carefully as it re-tests the break of..

  • Intraday Market Thought: EM Tightening & Inflation Perspective

    by Adam Button | Jun 25, 2021 11:25
    EM Tightening & Inflation Perspective Chart As the focus broadens on inflation in the developmed markets space, some EM....Rate decisions from the central banks of the UK and Mexico highlighted the....GBP lagged in G10 FX but the big mover was MXN, which benefited from a surprise....All currencies are higher against the US dollar, except for GBP...Kiwi and CHF are in the lead...nbsp;The week concludes with top-tier US data, including the PCE report and....nbsp; ....The BoE pushed back on speculation that higher inflation will lead to rate hikes....Rates were held unchanged as expected but the central bank also warned against....The line and Andy Haldane's departing comments underscore the....Mexico's central bank also entered the debate with an unexpected decision....25% from 4...00%....There was speculation they could hint at a future hikes, but the move remained a....At the same time, the Banxico itself said risks were now balanced in a sign....All attention in the months ahead will be on the developments in inflation...This includes today's release of May US PCE report...The consensus is for headline inflation at 3...9% (from 3...6%) and core at 3...4% (from 3...1%....Upward surprises in CPI have failed to sustain rallies in the dollar with the....The consumer will also be in focus with spending forecast up 0...4% in the PCE report...That will be followed by the UMich final sentiment report for June...The consensus is 86...5...One Fed speaker to watch will be Mester, who generally aligns with the FOMC..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Illusion of Certainty

    by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2021 19:12
    The Illusion of Certainty Chart As the situation in Afghanistant accelerates from chaos to outright mass....But for now, let us weigh in Friday's UMich consumer sentiment survey,....The report reminds us we're in an unprecedented era and that predicting....Also today, the Empire Fed manufacturing survey fell from 43 to 18...3 vs expectations of 28...5...The chart below shows the other 3 times when UMich sentiment fell by more than....This should raise further debate on the timing of the taper as well as upcoming....This decade so far has been completely unpredictable starting with a global....Since then, a strong consensus has emerged that the recovery will continue....Friday's UMich sentiment survey was a reminder that the consensus can be....The survey plunged to 70...2 from 81...2 in a move no economist came close to forecasting...Shockingly, sentiment was even worse than in April 2020 at the height of the....Many market watchers were simply in disbelief but the survey takers pointed....New questions about safety and schools have soured great hopes and the....Is the optimism misplaced? Probably not...Kids are at threat to delta but the numbers with serious illness are....In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for 10 straight days through Friday...The recovery may unfold more slowly and covid will remain a risk for years but....The numbers will give the Fed some pause and that diminishes the chance of a....Because of that, selling the dollar was the right reaction for now...With regards to Afghanistan, any sort of US military resurgence into the country....But if persistent news of escalating US hospitalisations and school closures..
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