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Results: 411 to 420 of 1,000
Results: 411 to 420 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: A Turn or a Hiccup?
by Adam Button | Jun 21, 2021 14:55
A central bank turning hawkish is undoubtedly one of the great currency....Do NOT forget Powell will testify on the economy Tuesday at 2 pm Eastern...US 10 yr yield respected its 3-mth trendline support, while XAUUSD did the....The Fed decision was undoubtedly a surprise last week...The dots moved further than nearly anyone anticipated but it wasn't....After all, the dots have a poor track record of predicting rate moves and have....What also changed was that Powell went from a wait-and-see mode on data to....On Friday, St Louis Fed President (and noted hawk) Jim Bullard underscore the....What may have been less appreciated was how he benchmarked his rate hike on....He said that strong inflation of 2...5-3...0% through 2022 would meet the framework for justifying a rate hike...That's still a high bar...Many market watchers are declaring the current round of high inflation as the....Even Fed hawks haven't abandoned 2022 inflation as that period...Ultimately, the market will fall back on looking at inflation and prices rising....Some of the bottlenecks pushing up prices now – used cars for....So while we have seen some impressive moves that have no doubt been....The question through is how far to ride this move and when to fade it...Monday's price action will offer plentiful hints.
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Intraday Market Thought: Crypto Stabilization Ahead?
by Adam Button | Jun 23, 2021 18:30
What looked like a technical collapse in crypto prices on Tuesday turned into an....In FX, last week's US dollar rally continued to unwind with a growing....Ashraf cautions us to watch the renewed outperformance of Tech stocks vs....53/4% anytime soon, raising questions about growth and inflation...Ashraf also reminds us of the persistent higher lows in percentage daily....Even by the wild standards of the crypto market, Tuesday's move was....It looked grim for bitcoin early in New York trade as it broke through $31,000....As headlines flashed that it had wiped out all the gains for 2021, it came back....Evidently there were buyers waiting for a dip below $30,000 and they pounced...That was followed by a FOMO rally that took it to $34,200 at the time of....The pain elsewhere was larger and the bounces haven't been as impressive...That may be a hint that flows are traveling from alt coins into bitcoin...If that's the case, it may only be a temporary respite...That said, price action can turn into its own fuel for a rally...Overall, the breaks of some key support levels throughout the market aren't....There is a chance for a false breakout and reversal here but that would be a....We will be watching very closely and staying nimble in the days ahead...One slight tailwind for crypto has been the continued decline of the dollar...We're watching AUD/USD very carefully as it re-tests the break of..
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Intraday Market Thought: EM Tightening & Inflation Perspective
by Adam Button | Jun 25, 2021 11:25
As the focus broadens on inflation in the developmed markets space, some EM....Rate decisions from the central banks of the UK and Mexico highlighted the....GBP lagged in G10 FX but the big mover was MXN, which benefited from a surprise....All currencies are higher against the US dollar, except for GBP...Kiwi and CHF are in the lead...nbsp;The week concludes with top-tier US data, including the PCE report and....nbsp; ....The BoE pushed back on speculation that higher inflation will lead to rate hikes....Rates were held unchanged as expected but the central bank also warned against....The line and Andy Haldane's departing comments underscore the....Mexico's central bank also entered the debate with an unexpected decision....25% from 4...00%....There was speculation they could hint at a future hikes, but the move remained a....At the same time, the Banxico itself said risks were now balanced in a sign....All attention in the months ahead will be on the developments in inflation...This includes today's release of May US PCE report...The consensus is for headline inflation at 3...9% (from 3...6%) and core at 3...4% (from 3...1%....Upward surprises in CPI have failed to sustain rallies in the dollar with the....The consumer will also be in focus with spending forecast up 0...4% in the PCE report...That will be followed by the UMich final sentiment report for June...The consensus is 86...5...One Fed speaker to watch will be Mester, who generally aligns with the FOMC..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Illusion of Certainty
by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2021 19:12
As the situation in Afghanistant accelerates from chaos to outright mass....But for now, let us weigh in Friday's UMich consumer sentiment survey,....The report reminds us we're in an unprecedented era and that predicting....Also today, the Empire Fed manufacturing survey fell from 43 to 18...3 vs expectations of 28...5...The chart below shows the other 3 times when UMich sentiment fell by more than....This should raise further debate on the timing of the taper as well as upcoming....This decade so far has been completely unpredictable starting with a global....Since then, a strong consensus has emerged that the recovery will continue....Friday's UMich sentiment survey was a reminder that the consensus can be....The survey plunged to 70...2 from 81...2 in a move no economist came close to forecasting...Shockingly, sentiment was even worse than in April 2020 at the height of the....Many market watchers were simply in disbelief but the survey takers pointed....New questions about safety and schools have soured great hopes and the....Is the optimism misplaced? Probably not...Kids are at threat to delta but the numbers with serious illness are....In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for 10 straight days through Friday...The recovery may unfold more slowly and covid will remain a risk for years but....The numbers will give the Fed some pause and that diminishes the chance of a....Because of that, selling the dollar was the right reaction for now...With regards to Afghanistan, any sort of US military resurgence into the country....But if persistent news of escalating US hospitalisations and school closures..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD & Yen Firm on China & Delta
by Adam Button | Aug 17, 2021 19:54
The combination of FOMC members' insistence on a September taper with....Add to it a round of weak Chinese data and it underscores risks to the outlook....Another disappointing US consumer reading -- this time a larger than....1% drop in retail sales has strengthened the camps of the Fed doves...NZD was the biggest loser following fresh lockdown as a result of a new....But we think the RBNZ will still go ahead and raise rates in less than 7....nbsp; ....So the question is: will RBNZ still hike? I say YES...and that will trigger a rally in NZD...EVEN if a dovish hike...A new Premium trade was posted moments ago, backed by 2 charts and detailed....Chinese industrial production rose 6...4% y/y compared to 7...8% expected...Retail sales were up 8...5% y/y compared to 11...5% expected...Those are big disappointments and shortly before the data was released,....The entire Asia-Pacific region is struggling with delta so there's no....There was a slice of good news in Japanese Q2 GDP as the consumer held up....People have figured out how to live (and spend) with covid restrictions but the....Powell's appearance had shed no fresh light on the policy debate, but....Yields fell and the yen rallied as the likelihood of a quick series of Fed rate....Advanced/decline readings of major US indices are firmly swayed into the red...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Markets, USD Shrug FOMC Minutes
by Adam Button | Aug 19, 2021 13:11The FOMC minutes were supposed to be dovish but markets cant shake off St....The loudest voices at the FOMC are calling for a near-term taper but the....Weak outlook from broker RobinHood did not help either...Despite a dollar dip on the data, it stormed back in Asian trading and....US initial jobless claims add a further risk...Tuesday's Premium trade of shorting NASDAQ at 15000 deepens further in the....NZDUSD long was stopped out at 6840...nbsp;....The Fed Minutes showed that 'most' participants judged that the substantial....The timing on employment is the big open question and 'most' see that being met....That's what the market was expecting but, notably, 'several' don't see it being....Further, the Fed sees what everyone else is seeing around delta, markets and new....That was underscored by Goldman Sachs on Thursday, who cut their Q3 US GDP....5% from 8...5% on the slowdown...All that is USD negative and that's what unfolded initially but when Tokyo came....That was in spite of flat trading in bonds and equity futures, suggesting it....The risk is that those flows begin to run stops...EUR/USD fell to 1...1667 in the dollar bid, which is the lowest since November...AUD/USD and NZD/USD also hit multi-month lows...There's a high risk this dollar bid becomes self sustaining through a....Tread carefully around the release of weekly initial jobless claims at 1230.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Watch Gold & EUR Now
by Adam Button | Aug 31, 2021 14:18The London holiday led to a sluggish start to the week in FX as equities and....Since the close of NY trade yesterday, NZD and CHF are the strongest with Kiwi....CAD and JPY are the weakest...Gold is showing higher lows, ensuring to remain above the 100 and 200....EURUSD eyeing 1...1895 as long as it sustains the break above 55-DMA...nbsp;Today's consumer confidence report offers a compelling opportunity....nbsp;....Monday's trade mostly featured consolidation with most currencies....A large and persistent bid entered into EUR/CHF at the start of European trading....Fundamentally, the US pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing reports....The comments in the Dallas report were notable for a shift away from labor....In the bigger picture, there's a growing pattern of soft US economic data that....We're likely to get another example on Tuesday in the 1400 GMT release of US....While the Fed is focused on inflation and jobs, it's the consumer that drives....Moreover, mobility data and airline bookings are showing stalled pandemic....With the eviction moratorium over and jobless benefits expiring this week, is....Ashraf's video offers a compelling setup in what could be a wake-up call for the....WIll he be right? Let's see/watch. -
Intraday Market Thought: US Consumer Resilience & NZ Inflation Surge
by Adam Button | Oct 18, 2021 13:26
US and world indices start the week well off Friday's highs, following a....The report helped to restart the climb in yields and keep the downward pressure....But as of now, EUR and JPY are the strongest and AUD and CAD the weakest...NZDUSD hit 0...7105 before coming off the Feb trendline resistance after a surprise inflation....US Sep industrial production is next, exp 0...2% from 0...4%....nbsp;....US retail sales rose 0...7% in September compared to a 0...2% decline expected...That compounded a 2...5% m/m rise in August...It was an impressive run of spending despite those being two months where....Even stripping out food, energy and building materials, sales rose 0...8% to beat the +0...4% consensus...The initial market reaction was tepid and the dollar was caught in a downdraft....Monday's New Zealand CPI report highlighted the risks around more....Q3 prices rose 2...2% q/q compared to 1...4% expected...The year-over-year rise was 4...9%, which was the highest in more than 10 years...The kiwi rose 20 pips on the headline...That move was tempered by talk of a new covid circuit breaker but the market....Monday's US economic calendar features industrial production and home....The later is likely the one to watch because there are signs that housing is....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: From ECB Market Rebuff to PCE
by Adam Button | Oct 29, 2021 12:43The euro posted its biggest percentage weekly gain in five months as traders....The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...With US yield curve flattening further, markets are already doubting the extent....The Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is due up....nbsp;....Like market participants, central banks are now dividing themselves into....Christine Lagarde championed Team Transitory once again on Thursday after....She said the central bank did some 'soul searching' but is confident in the....quot;Our analysis certainty does not support that the conditions of our....Contrast that with the Bank of Canada, which hiked its 2022 inflation forecast....4% on Wednesday and market pricing that showing an ECB hike around this time....The broader market is showing some of the same tensions as long-dated yields....5%, much higher than the RBA's 0...10% yield curve control target...Next week's Fed decision looms increasingly large with a hike now 90%....The troubling part is that the $15B/monthly taper suggested in the FOMC....Pay close attention to the size and pace of the taper...nbsp;....The advance Q3 GDP was on the soft side at 2...0% compared to 2...7% expected but not as weak as feared...Notably, stripping out all the auto-related drops – which were largely....2%....That's a signal that supply is the problem, not demand...The question that continues to plague market participants is inflation and we....The consensus is for a 4...3% y/y inflation rise and 3...6% on the core...It's tough to see it altering the Fed's view, it could light another fire under....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Bunds Treasuries Spread Breakout
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 5, 2023 17:37
The chart showing the spread between the 10 yr German Bund yield and its US....I too have mixed views about this approach to FX, but I did use it with....10 in late 2020...The prediction was made at the NY Money show on 8th of March 2020 in this video....You all remember what happened on March 8...It was the INFAMOUS SUNDAY when “Saudi broke OPEC”, leading to a....Let's explore the weakness of using yield spreads before pointing to their....nbsp;....When Yield Spreads Failed in FX...See how EURUSD remained steady in spring-winter 2020 despite the Bunds-....The reason was related to the fact that USD was sunk by trillions of fresh....Other examples of the yield spread's ineffectiveness was during 2002-2004....When Yield Spreads Worked in FX...As for the classic examples when Bunds-Treasuries yield spread proved effective....Looking ahead, the Bund-Treasuries 10-yr yield spread appears to be breaking....Yet, the spread needs to ascend further towards the -0...50 territory (when bund yields are -0...5% below treasuries) in order for $1...10 to hold and build up for $1...15...The warning becomes the following: Once/if the break into positive territory....As for the fundamental triggers, they could include: i) New evidence of....Think deeply about the last one, as it's not straightforward...nbsp;..
