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Results: 411 to 420 of 1,000
Results: 411 to 420 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: The Illusion of Certainty
by Adam Button | Aug 16, 2021 19:12
As the situation in Afghanistant accelerates from chaos to outright mass....But for now, let us weigh in Friday's UMich consumer sentiment survey,....The report reminds us we're in an unprecedented era and that predicting....Also today, the Empire Fed manufacturing survey fell from 43 to 18...3 vs expectations of 28...5...The chart below shows the other 3 times when UMich sentiment fell by more than....This should raise further debate on the timing of the taper as well as upcoming....This decade so far has been completely unpredictable starting with a global....Since then, a strong consensus has emerged that the recovery will continue....Friday's UMich sentiment survey was a reminder that the consensus can be....The survey plunged to 70...2 from 81...2 in a move no economist came close to forecasting...Shockingly, sentiment was even worse than in April 2020 at the height of the....Many market watchers were simply in disbelief but the survey takers pointed....New questions about safety and schools have soured great hopes and the....Is the optimism misplaced? Probably not...Kids are at threat to delta but the numbers with serious illness are....In Europe, the Stoxx 600 rose for 10 straight days through Friday...The recovery may unfold more slowly and covid will remain a risk for years but....The numbers will give the Fed some pause and that diminishes the chance of a....Because of that, selling the dollar was the right reaction for now...With regards to Afghanistan, any sort of US military resurgence into the country....But if persistent news of escalating US hospitalisations and school closures..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD & Yen Firm on China & Delta
by Adam Button | Aug 17, 2021 19:54
The combination of FOMC members' insistence on a September taper with....Add to it a round of weak Chinese data and it underscores risks to the outlook....Another disappointing US consumer reading -- this time a larger than....1% drop in retail sales has strengthened the camps of the Fed doves...NZD was the biggest loser following fresh lockdown as a result of a new....But we think the RBNZ will still go ahead and raise rates in less than 7....nbsp; ....So the question is: will RBNZ still hike? I say YES...and that will trigger a rally in NZD...EVEN if a dovish hike...A new Premium trade was posted moments ago, backed by 2 charts and detailed....Chinese industrial production rose 6...4% y/y compared to 7...8% expected...Retail sales were up 8...5% y/y compared to 11...5% expected...Those are big disappointments and shortly before the data was released,....The entire Asia-Pacific region is struggling with delta so there's no....There was a slice of good news in Japanese Q2 GDP as the consumer held up....People have figured out how to live (and spend) with covid restrictions but the....Powell's appearance had shed no fresh light on the policy debate, but....Yields fell and the yen rallied as the likelihood of a quick series of Fed rate....Advanced/decline readings of major US indices are firmly swayed into the red...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Markets, USD Shrug FOMC Minutes
by Adam Button | Aug 19, 2021 13:11The FOMC minutes were supposed to be dovish but markets cant shake off St....The loudest voices at the FOMC are calling for a near-term taper but the....Weak outlook from broker RobinHood did not help either...Despite a dollar dip on the data, it stormed back in Asian trading and....US initial jobless claims add a further risk...Tuesday's Premium trade of shorting NASDAQ at 15000 deepens further in the....NZDUSD long was stopped out at 6840...nbsp;....The Fed Minutes showed that 'most' participants judged that the substantial....The timing on employment is the big open question and 'most' see that being met....That's what the market was expecting but, notably, 'several' don't see it being....Further, the Fed sees what everyone else is seeing around delta, markets and new....That was underscored by Goldman Sachs on Thursday, who cut their Q3 US GDP....5% from 8...5% on the slowdown...All that is USD negative and that's what unfolded initially but when Tokyo came....That was in spite of flat trading in bonds and equity futures, suggesting it....The risk is that those flows begin to run stops...EUR/USD fell to 1...1667 in the dollar bid, which is the lowest since November...AUD/USD and NZD/USD also hit multi-month lows...There's a high risk this dollar bid becomes self sustaining through a....Tread carefully around the release of weekly initial jobless claims at 1230.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Watch Gold & EUR Now
by Adam Button | Aug 31, 2021 14:18The London holiday led to a sluggish start to the week in FX as equities and....Since the close of NY trade yesterday, NZD and CHF are the strongest with Kiwi....CAD and JPY are the weakest...Gold is showing higher lows, ensuring to remain above the 100 and 200....EURUSD eyeing 1...1895 as long as it sustains the break above 55-DMA...nbsp;Today's consumer confidence report offers a compelling opportunity....nbsp;....Monday's trade mostly featured consolidation with most currencies....A large and persistent bid entered into EUR/CHF at the start of European trading....Fundamentally, the US pending home sales and Dallas Fed manufacturing reports....The comments in the Dallas report were notable for a shift away from labor....In the bigger picture, there's a growing pattern of soft US economic data that....We're likely to get another example on Tuesday in the 1400 GMT release of US....While the Fed is focused on inflation and jobs, it's the consumer that drives....Moreover, mobility data and airline bookings are showing stalled pandemic....With the eviction moratorium over and jobless benefits expiring this week, is....Ashraf's video offers a compelling setup in what could be a wake-up call for the....WIll he be right? Let's see/watch. -
Intraday Market Thought: US Consumer Resilience & NZ Inflation Surge
by Adam Button | Oct 18, 2021 13:26
US and world indices start the week well off Friday's highs, following a....The report helped to restart the climb in yields and keep the downward pressure....But as of now, EUR and JPY are the strongest and AUD and CAD the weakest...NZDUSD hit 0...7105 before coming off the Feb trendline resistance after a surprise inflation....US Sep industrial production is next, exp 0...2% from 0...4%....nbsp;....US retail sales rose 0...7% in September compared to a 0...2% decline expected...That compounded a 2...5% m/m rise in August...It was an impressive run of spending despite those being two months where....Even stripping out food, energy and building materials, sales rose 0...8% to beat the +0...4% consensus...The initial market reaction was tepid and the dollar was caught in a downdraft....Monday's New Zealand CPI report highlighted the risks around more....Q3 prices rose 2...2% q/q compared to 1...4% expected...The year-over-year rise was 4...9%, which was the highest in more than 10 years...The kiwi rose 20 pips on the headline...That move was tempered by talk of a new covid circuit breaker but the market....Monday's US economic calendar features industrial production and home....The later is likely the one to watch because there are signs that housing is....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: From ECB Market Rebuff to PCE
by Adam Button | Oct 29, 2021 12:43The euro posted its biggest percentage weekly gain in five months as traders....The euro was the top performer while the yen lagged...With US yield curve flattening further, markets are already doubting the extent....The Core PCE price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation is due up....nbsp;....Like market participants, central banks are now dividing themselves into....Christine Lagarde championed Team Transitory once again on Thursday after....She said the central bank did some 'soul searching' but is confident in the....quot;Our analysis certainty does not support that the conditions of our....Contrast that with the Bank of Canada, which hiked its 2022 inflation forecast....4% on Wednesday and market pricing that showing an ECB hike around this time....The broader market is showing some of the same tensions as long-dated yields....5%, much higher than the RBA's 0...10% yield curve control target...Next week's Fed decision looms increasingly large with a hike now 90%....The troubling part is that the $15B/monthly taper suggested in the FOMC....Pay close attention to the size and pace of the taper...nbsp;....The advance Q3 GDP was on the soft side at 2...0% compared to 2...7% expected but not as weak as feared...Notably, stripping out all the auto-related drops – which were largely....2%....That's a signal that supply is the problem, not demand...The question that continues to plague market participants is inflation and we....The consensus is for a 4...3% y/y inflation rise and 3...6% on the core...It's tough to see it altering the Fed's view, it could light another fire under....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Bunds Treasuries Spread Breakout
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 5, 2023 17:37
The chart showing the spread between the 10 yr German Bund yield and its US....I too have mixed views about this approach to FX, but I did use it with....10 in late 2020...The prediction was made at the NY Money show on 8th of March 2020 in this video....You all remember what happened on March 8...It was the INFAMOUS SUNDAY when “Saudi broke OPEC”, leading to a....Let's explore the weakness of using yield spreads before pointing to their....nbsp;....When Yield Spreads Failed in FX...See how EURUSD remained steady in spring-winter 2020 despite the Bunds-....The reason was related to the fact that USD was sunk by trillions of fresh....Other examples of the yield spread's ineffectiveness was during 2002-2004....When Yield Spreads Worked in FX...As for the classic examples when Bunds-Treasuries yield spread proved effective....Looking ahead, the Bund-Treasuries 10-yr yield spread appears to be breaking....Yet, the spread needs to ascend further towards the -0...50 territory (when bund yields are -0...5% below treasuries) in order for $1...10 to hold and build up for $1...15...The warning becomes the following: Once/if the break into positive territory....As for the fundamental triggers, they could include: i) New evidence of....Think deeply about the last one, as it's not straightforward...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: See you in Vegas Tues to Friday
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 7, 2023 14:45
The week in Las Vegas has arrived, where I will be speaking in 3 occasions at....8-10, 2023...It's going to be an comprehensive, interactive, educational, and enjoyable....I'm also excited to save you $50 in the process...For one thing, MoneyShow is creating an intimate, exclusive environment that....frequent networking opportunities with fellow high-net-worth investors...and an abundance of wealth-building keynote presentations, lively panel....nbsp; For another, they've assembled a sterling line up of accomplished....I will be presenting my latest market analysis and advice alongside dozens of....There's more below...You'll also enjoy top-quality food, drink, and entertainment during the....And you'll be housed at the Paris Las Vegas, a “home base”....Here is my event schedule:....Reading the Intermarket Signals from Metals and Yields Pertaining to Indices....Tuesday, August 8, 2023 | 11:15 am - 11:35 am PDT...The Global Value Hunt: 3 Best Ideas from 3 Top Experts...Thursday, August 10, 2023 | 9:30 am - 10:10 am PDT...Using the Gold-Silver Ratio in FX...Thursday, August 10, 2023 | 1:30 pm - 2:15 pm PDT...I've also set aside a discounted Symposium pass in your name...It will cost just $149 – a savings of $50 off the standard price!....You can claim your discounted pass by clicking here...Or simply call the MoneyShow team at 1-800-970-4355 and tell them you are a....Looking forward to seeing you next week...Sincerely,....Ashraf Laidi...Founder, Intermarket Strategy Ltd, and AshrafLaidi.....
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Intraday Market Thought: Philly Fed Misses, BOE’s Weale Dovish
by Adam Button | Apr 19, 2013 0:24Risk trades slipped on a disappointing Philly but overall moves were choppy...The pound was the top performer while NZD lagged...The Asia-Pacific calendar is light...Premium trades existing in EURUSD, USDJPY, GBPUSD, EURJPY, USDCAD and gold...The remaining silver short hit all targets and so did 1 Gold short, keeping....Full access can be seen in the latest Premium Insights...Yesterday's Beige Book affirmed that the Fed remains upbeat about the recovery....The Philly Fed was at 1...3 compared to 3...0 expected, which alone isn't bad but the key sub-indexes on employment and....Leading indicators also slipped 0...1% compared to a 0...1% rise expected...Earlier data on initial jobless claims at 352K were essentially in line with....Following the Philly Fed, risk trades slumped and USD/JPY fell to 97...92...Yen crosses also hit the lows of the day at that time...Afterwards stocks continued to deteriorate but FX rebounded and spent....In the UK, an interesting development was a comment from the BOE's Weale that....He conceded that growth may have contracted in Q1 and said lower....The most-recent MPC minutes showed a 6-3 vote against QE that would fall to 5-4....Cable rallied to a session high of 1...5313 moments before his comments but have sank back to 1...5278 since...In the upcoming session, headlines from the G20 will continued to percolate...The lone interesting data point is at 0430 GMT when Japan releases its.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Gold/Stocks Ratio’s Worst Decline in 2 Decades
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 11, 2013 5:59The gold/S&P500 ratio has fallen below 1...0 for the first time in 3 years, losing 40% from its 23-year peak of August 2011-....See what the chart is telling us ..
