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  • Intraday Market Thought: Is All Back to Normal ?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 9, 2019 11:44
    Is All Back to Normal ? Chart So is everything back to normal after Friday's Powell speech? Stocks are....So where to from here?  Full analysis.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Brexit Ticks Away

    by Adam Button | Mar 26, 2019 13:44
    Brexit Ticks Away Chart GBP is the strongest performing currency of the day due to 2 developments (Rees-....More on this below...The DAX short has been closed with a 220-pt gain...There are 7 remaining Premium trades currenty in progress, all of which are....Last night, Parliament voted to take control of the Brexit process from PM....This morning, Brexiteer and ERG chief Jacob Rees-Mogg said expressed his....If this deal is dead, as it appears, then it's tough to envision a way....It will also leave her party deeply divided in advance of a leadership....At best, a compromise candidate could emerge that somehow would be able to....More likely is a prolonging of uncertainty, another referendum or a....Cable's fluctuations remain part of traders' daily order, but the....At this point, the market could cheer any semblance of a plan or a way forward....Looking ahead, the main data point to watch in North American trade on Tuesday....All signs point to a better tone and the consensus is for a rise to 132...1 from 131...4 but it will take an especially strong report to reverse the cynicism borne of..

  • Intraday Market Thought: April Seasonal Notes

    by Adam Button | Apr 2, 2019 10:36
    The US dollar leads against all currencies, while the pound shifted from....We note some of the historically strong seasonal trends in April...Thursday's Premium Long in DAX30 was closed yesterday for 250-pt gain, while....The Premium video below details our existing and future trades...All four indicative votes late on Monday as a Labour whip on Customs 2...0 failed...It had been a good start to the week for the pound after the Markit PMI beat....Conservative whip Boles raised the stakes afterwards as he quit the party...Earlier in the day, a Conservative lawmaker also reversed course and said....Aside from the mess in the UK, global markets started the month in an upbeat....The S&P 500 gained 1...2% as a sea of green swept across international markets and 10-year....50%....The strong start to April for global equity markets shouldn't be a great....April is one of the top months of the year...Other particularly strong trends (historically speaking)....It's the strongest month for oil, natural gas and (not surprisingly) the....It's the best month for the euro over the past decade...It's by far the best month for the pound...The US dollar tends to be weak, which may relate to a multi-year struggle for..

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Strength ‘Transitory’ on FOMC, BoE Next

    by Adam Button | May 2, 2019 11:14
    USD Strength ‘Transitory’ on FOMC, BoE Next Chart The Fed statement and press conference sent markets in different directions on....NZD and Aussie are at the top of the day's FX perfomers, JPY and CHF are the....The Bank of England decision is up next...A new Premium trade has been issued to subscribers...The Fed decision Wednesday unfolded just as we anticipated in yesterday's....The cut to IOER and statement was interpreted as mildly dovish by the....However, as we warned, Powell used the statement to lean against the idea of....Powell twice repeated that the FOMC doesn't see a strong case for moving....Importantly, he dismissed low inflation as 'transitory' and forecast a....On the whole, market pricing of a 68% chance of a Fed cut by year end remains....For that to unfold it would take a deterioration in economic data...Indeed, that's partly what unfolded earlier Wednesday as the ISM....Construction spending also fell 0...9% compared to a flat reading anticipated...The Bank of England decision could unfold similarly to the Fed...The statement may contain a growth bump from 1...4% and Saunders could also dissent in favor of a hike...Both would lead to some immediate sterling gains...Nonetheless, those may unwind in Carney's press conference if he stresses..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Johnson Wins, GBP Stabilizes

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 23, 2019 19:13
    Johnson Wins, GBP Stabilizes Chart Members of Britain's Conservatives Party have named Boris Johnson as the....Sterling resumed its pre-announcement gains following remarks from EU Brexit....Cable pushed up half a pence off its session lows to 1...2480 before dropping back near 1...2440s amid broadening USD strength...The GBP implied volatility chart may indicate a receding fear factor in....In other news, the IMF downgraded its forecast for 2019 and 2020 global growth....1% to 3...2% and 3...5% respectively...Q1 global trade volumes were revised down to their lowest in 7 years...Since Johnson is widely expected to reiterate his vow for Brexit by end of....The more cracks with the coaltion, the more we're likely to hear about the....nbsp;....On the EU side, Barnier's willingness to consider amending the....The cohesiveness of the Conservatives will also be a key factor for the....nbsp;....Staunch anti-no deal exit such as Cabinet members such as Chancellor....Hammond will lead a group of about 30 Tory MPs aimed at blocking a no-deal....How deep will the fissures in the party be will be the question for the rest of....Meanwhile, we have 9 days until the Bank of England releases its quarterly....BoE governor Carney has already signalled that growth will be revised....FX traders cannot avoid the strengthening US dollar, but they also..

  • Intraday Market Thought: A Franc Discussion

    by Adam Button | Aug 29, 2019 12:42
    A Franc Discussion Chart The Swiss franc has quietly climbed for four consecutive months but it's....The US dollar led the way Wednesday while the pound lagged...The second look at Q2 US GDP is due up next...The Mystery Chart below is the basis of Tuesday's Premium Insights trade,....Care to guess what it is?....The Swiss National Bank once again finds itself in the unenviable position of....After hitting 1...20 last year the pair has slipped to 1...0875 with relatively little fanfare...It's been consolidating around that level for the past two weeks...One interesting aspect of the franc strength is that it has not been driven....As we noted at the start of the week, CFTC positioning still shows a net short....That may be a result of the long memories of FX traders but it also....EUR/CHF has fallen below 1...10 in the past month and is at the lowest since June 2017...Levels to watch include the 2017 low of 1...0637 and mid-2015 low of 1...0230...It was a quick spike down close to parity in 2011 that prompted the SNB to....Note that both the dawn of the floor and the break of it were in response to....With Draghi preparing for his final act of 'whatever it takes' on Sept....The SNB has no doubt noticed and has lightly been active in the FX market....On Wednesday, the SNB's Maechler highlighted that there is still plenty....Looking ahead, US revised Q2 GDP is due at 12:30 GMT/13:30 London, expected to....0% from 2...1%, annualized...Personal consumption continues to be the main driver of growth with that....3% in the preliminary report...Market risks around the report are minimal...We know that consumers were strong and the economy was solid in the quarter;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: EU Stalls, Draghi’s Swan Song Next

    by Adam Button | Oct 24, 2019 12:50
    EU Stalls, Draghi’s Swan Song Next Chart Brexit hangs in the balance as EU politicians put off the decision on a....The pound was the top performer once again while the yen lagged...GBP is now the 2nd best perfomer since the start of the year (behind CAD)....The final ECB decision of Draghi's Presidency is due next (more below)....A new (4th) Premium trade will be issued after/during Draghi's press....The pound found a short-term bottom at 1...2840 and rebounded modestly in another sign of dip-buying or short-covering as....Yet uncertainty still remains high as the EU sends mixed signals on what kind....Talk of a UK cabinet meeting will be held at 3 pm London time...France is pushing for the shortest of extensions in the hope of ending the....A longer extension may spark an election and that might cause some short-term....Looking to today, the main event is the ECB decision...Expectations for any kind of change in policy or guidance are nearly nil...The ECB made their move last month and will now play a game of wait-and-see...If anything, Draghi may try to put some positive spin on the economy as he....In all likelihood the market isn't going to react to it because data....On Wednesday, eurozone consumer confidence fell to -7...6 compared to -6...7 expected – that's the worst since January 2018...Looking back at Draghi's term, he will be remembered as a great central....He faced down the eurozone crisis, Brexit and austere fiscal policy and did....Time will tell on whether the ECB pushed to far into experimental policy but at....Lagarde will have a tough act to follow.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Yield Curve will Bring Back the Fed

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 22, 2019 18:47
    Fed rate cuts are out of the conversation, but that's how the..

  • Intraday Market Thought: USD Pauses, Key Levels Pre ISM

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 2, 2019 13:51
    USD Pauses, Key Levels Pre ISM Chart USD losing steam across the board as markets await US manufacturing ISM, but....Rallying non-energy commodity currencies are led by the Kiwi after China's....US crude oil bounces after posting the biggest daily drop in 2...5 mths; 3...US futures head back into the red partly on Trump's reinstating tariffs on....NZDJPY was stopped out after China's data...A new FX trade has been issued, supported by 4 charts as agriculture....Indices initially ignored China's insistence on the US to roll back....51 from 109...70s...VIX is up for the 3rd straight session, DAX continues to fail around the 13300....Meanwhille, the divergence between the Dow Jones' industrials and..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Trading Misconceptions

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 9, 2020 15:20
    Oil Trading Misconceptions Chart ldquo;There is a war, let's buy oil” seems to be an oft-repeated....Instead of arguing whether war will break out in the Middle East, it's....A new Premium video below has been issued to our Premium subscribers,....Starting with Saddam Hussein's invasion of Kuwait in early August 1990,....Oil peaked 2 months later at $41, before descending on downward spiral ahead....What about the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003? Oil began rising in the....50 in December 2002 to $40 in February of 2003...Oil fell in the subsequent three months back to mid 20s...Some might say: “But oil rose throughout the rest of 2003 and 2004....Yes, and so did every other commodity and currency against the US dollar, as....Also, don't forget china headed off an infrasctrure building boom, sending....What about now? In an age of excess oil supply courtesy of debt-ridden frackers,..
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