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  • Intraday Market Thought: CNH Hit & Leverage Lessons

    by Adam Button | Mar 29, 2021 18:10
    CNH Hit & Leverage Lessons Chart Not many people know what it feels like to lose a $20B fortune but Bill Hwang....His Archegos Capital blew up on Friday, wiping out the vast majority of a fund....More on this below...Meanwhile, CNH took a fresh hit today, with USDCNH posting its 3rd biggest....The move spilled over to rapid selling in gold and silver...XAUUSD is now attempting to hold above the trendline support from March 8th low...This will be a short rading week in light of the Easter and Passover....Good Friday April 2nd is a market holiday in the US but NOT a public....nbsp;Below is Ashraf's message made last Tuesday to the Whatsapp Broadcast....It's rare for a fund that large to use leverage and the events of late last....A handful of concentrated bets in Chinese and US companies were swamped by....Shares of ViacomCBS fell 50% over two days, while Discovery dropped 27% on....Hwang was also behind heavy selling in Baidu and Tencent...There are some obvious risk management lessons here as one of the great traders....For the broader market, news of forced liquidation from a single fund is....It means that nothing has changed in the bigger picture and given that the....The broader market will also benefit as people pick up the scraps...The market hates uncertainty and unknown sellers but once it gets a grip on what&....There's likely what happened as rumours about the selling began to....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +93K vs +90K prior...GBP +22K vs +29K prior...JPY -53K vs -39K prior...CHF +3K vs +5K prior...CAD +5K vs +10K prior...AUD +6K vs +8K prior...NZD +5K vs +6K prior...The big story in the past two weeks is the dramatic positioning shift in the....The yen and Swiss franc are rapidly regaining their positions as funding..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold Catching Knives & Headfakes

    by Adam Button | Mar 30, 2021 16:19
    Before we speak about the Fed's new governor, let's discuss metals...The latest spike in yields is triggering fresh selling in metals...Ashraf made this curious tweet about falling gold ETF holing ....Interestingly, gold/Ethereum ratio is at new lows and Gold/Bitcoin is near its....Below are the major declines in gold over the past 13 years...The question now is whether we will see a sharp rebound as we did in June 2012....For a perspective, you can watch Ashraf's video from early August calling....New Fed Governor Chris Waller made his debut appearance on Monday and his....The Swiss franc led the way on Monday while the euro lagged...US consumer confidence is due up next...On the surface, the comments from Waller were a non-event...He repeated the standard Fed lines that it will be a long time before it's....He said that rising yields were a sign of economic confidence and he point to....There were some hints he will be a more-hawkish governor but it's way too early....What stood out though was that the topic of his first speech was central bank....Waller's term runs until 2030 and he'll surely going to be tested on that front...The long arc of the last 35 years of monetary policy is towards lower rates...That means that by-and-large central banks have been an ally for treasury....The next era – and we got a taste of that with Trump – will be a....nbsp;....For politicians, that's often a disastrous outcome...That push-and-pull has been clear in Turkey in recent years as the government....At the moment, the market is enjoying the confluence of easy money fiscal and....Tuesday's US economic calendar picks up after a quiet day to start the week...A pair of indications on house prices will be a reminder of the new spending..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade the strongest vs weakest currenciesكيف نحدد أقوى و أضعف عملات

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 5, 2021 12:18
    What's the best way to find the strongest and weakest currencies in....كيف نحدد أقوى و أضعف عملات لتداول الفوركس...ما هو تداول التنلظريات الفنية في الناسداك و المؤشرات الفيديو الكامل.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Those Minutes & Bonds Versus Commodities

    by Adam Button | Jul 7, 2021 14:32
    Those Minutes & Bonds Versus Commodities Chart Falling yields continue to send a chill through commodity markets in a sign that....A risk off mood struck Tuesday as US traders retuned from a long weekend,....The ISM services index missing estimates and fresh doubts about the....The minutes from last month's eventful FOMC meetings are next...The charts below suggest 1...35% yields remain crucial...Will the minutes finally sway yields higher? See what we say below...Yesterday, the WhatsApp Broadcast Group had a long in USDJPY near 110...40 targetting 110...90...US 30-year bond yields fell back below 2% on Tuesday and 10-year yields took out....Some in the bond market continue to point to a short squeeze but that's....It's summer and the puzzle pieces don't always fit but at face value....The backbone of the commodity and commodity FX trades is high growth, low....That the bond market is increasingly comfortable with returns well below the....That was reflected in commodity FX Tuesday and most commodities, including....We hate to bet against the bond market but economic data highlights why it'....A miss in the ISM services data at 60...1 vs 63...5 kicked off the flight to safety but the internals of the report told a....A shift to less-positive sentiment was about margin pressure, capacity....The 'order backlog' component rose to 65...8 from 61...1 and imports to 58...2 from 50...4...Comments in the report also highlighted severe supply chain disruptions...Ultimately, either commodities will have to fall further or rates turn back....At the moment, rates are winning but there are many chapters yet to be....One of them will be Wednesday when the Fed will release the minutes of the June....Chances are the commentary in the report is less hawkish than the dots suggested...Powell indicated that policymakers didn't even discuss the dots...At the same time, market participants will be feverishly scanning the report..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Pivotal Week Ahead

    by Adam Button | Jul 26, 2021 14:33
    Pivotal Week Ahead Chart Before we inform you how how busy this week will be, it's worth mentioning....Cardano and Bitcoin managed to escape the selling onslaught and made it well....25 and $28500 respectively...But enthusiasm must be tempered until we break out $1...50 and $44000...Markets impressively shook off last week's terrible start and to ultimately....That series of reversals from breakdowns and doji stars underscores both the....The heavy calendar in the week ahead sets up the potential for lasting moves....Ashraf tweeted the below points yesterday...Could there be something new? ....Economic data was a mixed bag on Friday and so was the market response...The US Markit services PMI disappointed at a five month low of 59...8 compared to 64...8 expected while the manufacturing numbers were slightly stronger than....In Canada, both May and June preliminary retail sales beat estimates...G10 FX was largely flat to close out the week but US equities ran to fresh all-....Those gains came without the support of higher Treasury yields or a positive....On the covid front, UK daily cases have fallen by nearly 20K in just eight days....In any case, the market appears to be taking it at face value...An Israeli study also drew some shudders as it showed Pfizer's vaccine just....Again, the quality of the data was questioned with other studies showing....That front bears watching in the week ahead but the main focus will be on a....The main event is the Fed decision on Wednesday but we also get:Monday:....New home sales, Dallas Fed...Tuesday: Durable goods orders, Consumer confidence, 5-year note auction...Case-Shiller house price index, Richmond Fed...Wednesday: FOMC decision, Advance good trade balance...Thursday: Initial jobless claims, Q2 prelim GDP...Friday: PCE, Final UMich consumer sentiment...On top of all that, it's the peak of equity earnings season with all the....When the dust settles, expect lasting trends to emerge.

  • Intraday Market Thought: No Inflation Panic From Powell

    by Adam Button | Nov 3, 2021 21:50
    No Inflation Panic From Powell Chart The Fed largely followed the script it spent months writing in the lead-up to....The message was moderately dovish with risk trades rallying, the kiwi leading....nbsp; The OPEC+ meeting is up next...Below are Ashraf's notes to the WhatsApp Broadcast Group predicting the....nbsp;....The market has grown increasingly concerned about inflation lately and....In turn, market participants began to think we would get something similar....It didn't happen...Instead, the FOMC stuck to the plan laid out in the Minutes to taper by $15....They gave themselves some flexibility to adjust that pace after the first two....The statement continued to reference transitory inflation but added some....In the press conference, Powell said they plan to be patient while watching....Add it all up and the dollar generally declined, though not by a large margin...Long-end rates moved 5-6 bps higher while short end rates were pinned...That steeper yield curve will likely please the Fed, though it's early...Aside from the Fed, the most-meaningful news on the day was the ISM services....It showed a booming services economy as the US emerged from the delta wave...The index rose to 66...7 compared to 62...0 expected...New order hit a record...Evidence is beginning to mount of a strong fourth quarter but that continues....Next up is the OPEC+ meeting, which is at noon UK time...There's a strong expectation for another 400k bpd but the intrigue will....Beyond that, the US has made vague threats of action if OPEC doesn't....We will have to wait on that front but news that dates have been set for....Crude bulls took some off the table on Wednesday, leading to a nearly $4..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Upcoming Breakout in Gold Longs?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 8, 2021 16:53
    We know that Gold's commitment reports from the Comex is for the....The last data point in the yellow graph is for the week ending last Tues (Nov....Since we know what happened to gold over the last 6 days, the next data point....For more background, see a recent video about net Comex commitments.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Gold-USD Gain Helped by Asian FX

    by Ashraf Laidi | Nov 16, 2021 21:20
    Gold-USD Gain Helped by Asian FX Chart What's next for gold after net speculative longs have finally broken....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin Month Fractals تناظرية بتكوين الشهرية

    by Ashraf Laidi | Dec 25, 2021 1:22
    Bitcoin Month Fractals تناظرية بتكوين الشهرية Chart Bitcoin's monthly fractal from 5:14 mins ....ركز على تناظرية بتكوين من جزء ٢٦:٣٦..

  • Intraday Market Thought: What will the Fed do?

    by Ashraf Laidi | Jul 5, 2022 14:52
    Is the US already in a recession? Will July's Fed rate hike be the final..
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