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Results: 491 to 500 of 1,000
Results: 491 to 500 of 1,000
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Hot-Chart: Dow Theory Revisit نظرية الداو
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 10, 2024 12:17The Dow Theory is one of those signals, which can be accurate but not at all....The Theory states that when Dow Jones Industrials Average hits a new high or a....This implies the following: if we see new highs in the Dow Jones Industrials....nbsp; Well, it's been three years since the Transportation index has last....Said differently, the Industrials has hit multiple new highs in 2024 without....Another point worth noting in the bottom chart is the Industrials/Transportation....67, which appears to be a right a shoulder matching the left shoulder high....October 10, 2019...Yes, correct...October 2019--exactly 5 years ago from today...nbsp;....nbsp;.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Pound's 6% Flash Crash
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 7, 2016 4:17
Sterling collapsed by 6% in less than 5 minutes at 19:07 Eastern Time (0:07....The Financial Times reported that Hollande said at a dinner in Paris that....nbsp; Ashraf's interview with CNBC on GBP's plunge...Hollande's statements followed remarks by German Chancellor Angela....On the UK front, reports that PM May's Wednesday speech alluding to the....Expectations that WhiteHall could shift away from monetary policy to looser....While we do not rule out the possibility of a human (Fat Finger) error in....We grew accustomed over the past 6 weeks with sterling's reaction to....The most recent trigger to GBP selling emerged on Sunday following PM May's....A Hard Exit would reduce the likelihood of any sweet deals to the UK, including....nbsp;....GBPUSD fell to as low as $1...1841 from $1...2600, while one electronic trading platform reportedly recorded $1...1378...Whether $1...30 becomes the new “Hard Resistance” remains to be seen...We added a new trade following GBP's slide to the Premium Insights as we....GBP call on CNBC - June 27, 2016....GBP call on Bloomberg - July 11,..
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Intraday Market Thought: USD Dead Cat Bounce, BoC Preview
by Adam Button | Sep 6, 2017 9:48
The US dollar took another tumble to start the week, we look at five reasons....Aussie is the worst performer after weaker than expected GDP figures...Before we look at today's BoC decision, here's a quick explainer....Below is the latest trading/charts video for Premium subscribers ahead of the....1) The bid in bonds....Treasury yields were an early signal as they tumbled right across the curve...Ten-year yields fell 10 basis points to 2...06%, which definitely breaks the June low and is the lowest since the US....Low yields make US debt less attractive...2) More bad data....Following Friday's release of the triple negatoive in the US jobs report....3) Brainard, Kashkari & Kaplan....The Fed's Brainard argued for patience and prudence before raising....Brainard is a well known dove but she has also been a swing voice in the past...As a Governor, she is more of a core FOMC member than others who don't....Minneapolis Fed's Kashkari from his part said recent Fed hikes may have been....If Dudley makes a similar point on Thursday, the dollar will fall further...4) North Korea....Risk aversion dominated on Tuesday but that isn't necessarily a bad thing....As the S&P 500 fell 20 points, the fears helped to reel in USD/CAD and AUD/....The problem for the dollar isn't so much the fear of nuclear war but the....5) Hurricane Irma....Hurricane Irma is a massive Category 5 storm that will be a major disaster in....Its sustained winds are near 300km/h, which is very close to the strongest....It's all the talk in the energy market but it's not getting as much....A second disaster would ratchet up the costs and deliver another blow to Q3....5) Congress....US lawmakers have a daunting schedule in the weeks ahead...They have a half-dozen true urgent matters to deal with this month, plus....The market has little faith it will all get done without a disruption...Today's big central bank event that will cause major waves is the Bank of....The market is truly perplexed on what will happen...The OIS market is pricing in a 43% chance of a hike but believes that even....The risk – as it was in July – is a hawkish hike...But would they be hurried into a hike when oil fundamenta'ls remain..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ashraf's Interview on BNN
by Ashraf Laidi | Oct 14, 2015 18:23
Ashraf's interview with BNN earlier today on China's imports, CNY,....Full interview..
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Intraday Market Thought: VIX Asleep, Fears Awakens
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 15, 2016 17:10
One notable reason the VIX is trading at only half the level seen in August (53...0), a time when equity indices plunged near today's levels is related to....But here are 4 metrics with more relevance and urgency than the oft....Full Article.
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Intraday Market Thought: Japan on the Mend
by Adam Button | May 24, 2016 0:48
The main narrative on the strong yen is that the lack of BOJ action and risk....JPY was the top performer on Monday while the Canadian dollar lagged...A speech from RBA's Stevens is due later...Japan has been locked in a never-ending cycle of deflation, government stimulus,....Abenomics has been bold on the spending and mon pol fronts but soft on....Or has it? A trio of recent indicators in the past week have been shockingly....The first was Q1 GDP at 1...7% annualized compared to 0...3% expected...That was followed by a 5...5% rise in March machine orders compared to -2...0% expected and yesterday's trade balance...The 823B yen surplus crushed the 540B yen consensus and was the best since....To be fair, there are caveats in each of those data points and others pain a....It struck again on Monday as USD/JPY fell 90 pips and has now completely....More likely explanations include a mix of risk aversion, USD weakness, yield....Moreover, the market is growing increasingly enamored with the idea of....In the US Monday, the market flash manufacturing PMI was at 50...5 compared to 51...0 expected...That's the lowest reading since 2009...However, factories are nearly non-existent on the Fed's radar and....Still, the US dollar hasn't captured a lasting bid...If it doesn't in the next day or two, then it's tough to believe it will....The Asia-Pacific calendar is light for the hours ahead....The main events is a speech from the RBA's Stevens at 0305 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: What’s the NFP Minimum?
by Adam Button | Sep 1, 2016 23:23
Nonfarm payrolls is the marquee event on the calendar in the day ahead, we look....The pound sterling was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific week ends with Japanese August consumer confidence...Ashraf's 2nd Premium of the week has just been posted, focusing on the....The Fed's Mester made an interesting comment about the jobs picture on....That leaves for an interesting mismatch with the consensus estimate of 180K jobs....To be sure, the Fed has long warned that a decline in unemployment would lower....By the same token, it's fair to ask how the Fed will react...For years, Fed speakers have highlighted that they smooth out economic data and....So we're left with the question of what's needed to keep a realistic....Despite what Mester said, it's probably at least 160K...Even then, virtually every other economic data point from now until Sept....In addition, revisions would need to be net positive with a favorable....2% consensus on average hourly earnings...If that's met, the dollar is likely to recuperate post-ISM losses but it may....However if the numbers are disappointing, the ISM jitteriness Thursday....Before non-farm payrolls, at 0500 GMT, the August Japanese consumer confidence....The consensus estimate is 41...8 compared to 41...3 prior but it's not likely to be a yen mover.
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Intraday Market Thought: Mnuchin Knocks Dollar, Supreme Decision
by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2017 23:15
The US dollar slipped Monday and then sank late after the new Treasury....The pound will be in focus on Tuesday as the Supreme Court delivers a verdict on....The yen was the top performer on Monday as risk aversion climbed...A new GBP trade has been issued ahead of Tuesday's UK Supreme Court decision...The video for Premium subscribers will be made available at the London Tuesday....The US dollar unwound a large part of its gains from late last week as the....The market is clearly focused on finding out how the rhetoric will turn into....Trump met with CEOs and called for a huge tax cut but that only led to a....00 from 113...50...It was erased in the following hour and the pair finished at 113...00 before falling once again early in Asian trading after Mnuchin wrote that....It's premature to speculate on his next moves but the 'excessively....USD/JPY slumped to 112...45 on the comment...On that front, the White House wasn't directly asked about labelling China....The near-term risks kin the FX are political but overseas...The UK Supreme Court is set to rule on whether parliament gets a say in....The speculation is that they will force a vote but it's tough to say exactly....Last week's Brexit speech didn't offer any kind of gamechanger for GBP....That's certainly putting a squeeze on shorts and the Supreme Court could....Why the market might not be all that concerned is because parliament is....To ignore it would be a political minefield...If the Supreme Court does force a vote, watch for comments from May's....Looking to Asia-Pacific trading, the main item on the agenda is the Nikkei....The prior reading was 52...4.
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Intraday Market Thought: Tax Plan Follows the Script
by Adam Button | Apr 26, 2017 22:15
As we anticipated, the trade was to sell-the-fact on the Trump tax plan...The bulk of currencies finished the day unchanged despite some volatility, the....The Asia-Pacific calendar is quiet as we count down to the ECB...A new USD trade has been posted alongside supproting charts moments ago...اليورو في قيادة المؤشرات (للمشتركين فقط)....Yesterday we wrote about the Trump trading plan: to react to the first....The market followed the script on Wednesday as he delivered his long-....As anticipated, it wasn't a plan...It was a one-page, bullet point draft of a dozen principles that he hopes to....It mirrored his campaign pledged and much of it was leaked...The market's response was to unwind a portion of the rally in risk assets....USD/JPY sagged 70 pips to 111...00...The US dollar fell by a smaller margin elsewhere and the S&P 500 gave up an....We will look for more opportunities to trade Trump in the future...One continues to be CAD and MXN...The White House will likely announce its intention to pull out of NAFTA in the....The Mexican peso was especially hit hard because it would leave the nations....Canada would fall back on the 1987 FTA if no new deal is reached, and that'....But if it's similar to NAFTA, Trump could hate it as well...Certainly the door is now open to a radically different trading relationship....nbsp;....USD/CAD didn't break Tuesday's high on the news but it's nearby and....3600 is a bullish technical signal...The pair didn't break higher in part because Canadian Feb retail sales ex-....Also notable for the pair is that oil couldn't hang onto a gain despite a....Also on the commodity front, AUD/USD was cut down on yesterday's CPI report...In US trading, it broke below the April lows and that could set up more....The only possible catalyst in today's Asia-Pac session is Q1 import/export....The consensus on imports is -0...5% and exports is +8...0%....The bigger story will come Thursday with the ECB decision...Sources reports suggest references to downside risks will be removed and that..
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Intraday Market Thought: Macron Burns Sceptics by 36% Margin
by Adam Button | May 7, 2017 22:43
France elected Emmanuel Macron President with a larger-than-anticipated margin....1000...The euro was also the best performer last week while the yen lagged...CFTC positions showed narrowing GBP shorts...After closing our EURUSD long at a profit on Friday, we opened a new long....With most votes counted, Macron leads the election with more than 64% compared....His victory underscores how markets and many commentators failed to understand....It's also a reminder that while the political sands are shifting globally,....His win was no surprise although email leaks late Friday added some angst...There was always the minute risk of a shock win for Le Pen but more than....At times like this, markets often focus on the message from the incoming....She said her party must reinvent itself and there is talk that will start with a....But more important was a hint of what's to come from her father, who was....He said her message was undermined by threats to quit the euro and EU...If he's right (and if he's reading the political mood correctly)....That will leave the currency far less vulnerable in future elections...In the short term, it's a better potential reason to buy the euro than....Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -2K vs -21K prior...GBP -81K vs -91K prior...JPY -23 vs -27K prior...CHF -18K vs -17K prior...CAD -48K vs -43K prior...AUD +43K vs +43K prior...NZD -12K vs -15K prior....The market continued to pile into Canadian shorts through Tuesday but the....Meanwhile, the exodus from cable shorts continues as it flirts with 1...30.
