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Results: 491 to 500 of 1,000
Results: 491 to 500 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Japan on the Mend
by Adam Button | May 24, 2016 0:48
The main narrative on the strong yen is that the lack of BOJ action and risk....JPY was the top performer on Monday while the Canadian dollar lagged...A speech from RBA's Stevens is due later...Japan has been locked in a never-ending cycle of deflation, government stimulus,....Abenomics has been bold on the spending and mon pol fronts but soft on....Or has it? A trio of recent indicators in the past week have been shockingly....The first was Q1 GDP at 1...7% annualized compared to 0...3% expected...That was followed by a 5...5% rise in March machine orders compared to -2...0% expected and yesterday's trade balance...The 823B yen surplus crushed the 540B yen consensus and was the best since....To be fair, there are caveats in each of those data points and others pain a....It struck again on Monday as USD/JPY fell 90 pips and has now completely....More likely explanations include a mix of risk aversion, USD weakness, yield....Moreover, the market is growing increasingly enamored with the idea of....In the US Monday, the market flash manufacturing PMI was at 50...5 compared to 51...0 expected...That's the lowest reading since 2009...However, factories are nearly non-existent on the Fed's radar and....Still, the US dollar hasn't captured a lasting bid...If it doesn't in the next day or two, then it's tough to believe it will....The Asia-Pacific calendar is light for the hours ahead....The main events is a speech from the RBA's Stevens at 0305 GMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: What’s the NFP Minimum?
by Adam Button | Sep 1, 2016 23:23
Nonfarm payrolls is the marquee event on the calendar in the day ahead, we look....The pound sterling was the top performer while the US dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific week ends with Japanese August consumer confidence...Ashraf's 2nd Premium of the week has just been posted, focusing on the....The Fed's Mester made an interesting comment about the jobs picture on....That leaves for an interesting mismatch with the consensus estimate of 180K jobs....To be sure, the Fed has long warned that a decline in unemployment would lower....By the same token, it's fair to ask how the Fed will react...For years, Fed speakers have highlighted that they smooth out economic data and....So we're left with the question of what's needed to keep a realistic....Despite what Mester said, it's probably at least 160K...Even then, virtually every other economic data point from now until Sept....In addition, revisions would need to be net positive with a favorable....2% consensus on average hourly earnings...If that's met, the dollar is likely to recuperate post-ISM losses but it may....However if the numbers are disappointing, the ISM jitteriness Thursday....Before non-farm payrolls, at 0500 GMT, the August Japanese consumer confidence....The consensus estimate is 41...8 compared to 41...3 prior but it's not likely to be a yen mover.
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Intraday Market Thought: Mnuchin Knocks Dollar, Supreme Decision
by Adam Button | Jan 23, 2017 23:15
The US dollar slipped Monday and then sank late after the new Treasury....The pound will be in focus on Tuesday as the Supreme Court delivers a verdict on....The yen was the top performer on Monday as risk aversion climbed...A new GBP trade has been issued ahead of Tuesday's UK Supreme Court decision...The video for Premium subscribers will be made available at the London Tuesday....The US dollar unwound a large part of its gains from late last week as the....The market is clearly focused on finding out how the rhetoric will turn into....Trump met with CEOs and called for a huge tax cut but that only led to a....00 from 113...50...It was erased in the following hour and the pair finished at 113...00 before falling once again early in Asian trading after Mnuchin wrote that....It's premature to speculate on his next moves but the 'excessively....USD/JPY slumped to 112...45 on the comment...On that front, the White House wasn't directly asked about labelling China....The near-term risks kin the FX are political but overseas...The UK Supreme Court is set to rule on whether parliament gets a say in....The speculation is that they will force a vote but it's tough to say exactly....Last week's Brexit speech didn't offer any kind of gamechanger for GBP....That's certainly putting a squeeze on shorts and the Supreme Court could....Why the market might not be all that concerned is because parliament is....To ignore it would be a political minefield...If the Supreme Court does force a vote, watch for comments from May's....Looking to Asia-Pacific trading, the main item on the agenda is the Nikkei....The prior reading was 52...4.
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Intraday Market Thought: Tax Plan Follows the Script
by Adam Button | Apr 26, 2017 22:15
As we anticipated, the trade was to sell-the-fact on the Trump tax plan...The bulk of currencies finished the day unchanged despite some volatility, the....The Asia-Pacific calendar is quiet as we count down to the ECB...A new USD trade has been posted alongside supproting charts moments ago...اليورو في قيادة المؤشرات (للمشتركين فقط)....Yesterday we wrote about the Trump trading plan: to react to the first....The market followed the script on Wednesday as he delivered his long-....As anticipated, it wasn't a plan...It was a one-page, bullet point draft of a dozen principles that he hopes to....It mirrored his campaign pledged and much of it was leaked...The market's response was to unwind a portion of the rally in risk assets....USD/JPY sagged 70 pips to 111...00...The US dollar fell by a smaller margin elsewhere and the S&P 500 gave up an....We will look for more opportunities to trade Trump in the future...One continues to be CAD and MXN...The White House will likely announce its intention to pull out of NAFTA in the....The Mexican peso was especially hit hard because it would leave the nations....Canada would fall back on the 1987 FTA if no new deal is reached, and that'....But if it's similar to NAFTA, Trump could hate it as well...Certainly the door is now open to a radically different trading relationship....nbsp;....USD/CAD didn't break Tuesday's high on the news but it's nearby and....3600 is a bullish technical signal...The pair didn't break higher in part because Canadian Feb retail sales ex-....Also notable for the pair is that oil couldn't hang onto a gain despite a....Also on the commodity front, AUD/USD was cut down on yesterday's CPI report...In US trading, it broke below the April lows and that could set up more....The only possible catalyst in today's Asia-Pac session is Q1 import/export....The consensus on imports is -0...5% and exports is +8...0%....The bigger story will come Thursday with the ECB decision...Sources reports suggest references to downside risks will be removed and that..
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Intraday Market Thought: Macron Burns Sceptics by 36% Margin
by Adam Button | May 7, 2017 22:43
France elected Emmanuel Macron President with a larger-than-anticipated margin....1000...The euro was also the best performer last week while the yen lagged...CFTC positions showed narrowing GBP shorts...After closing our EURUSD long at a profit on Friday, we opened a new long....With most votes counted, Macron leads the election with more than 64% compared....His victory underscores how markets and many commentators failed to understand....It's also a reminder that while the political sands are shifting globally,....His win was no surprise although email leaks late Friday added some angst...There was always the minute risk of a shock win for Le Pen but more than....At times like this, markets often focus on the message from the incoming....She said her party must reinvent itself and there is talk that will start with a....But more important was a hint of what's to come from her father, who was....He said her message was undermined by threats to quit the euro and EU...If he's right (and if he's reading the political mood correctly)....That will leave the currency far less vulnerable in future elections...In the short term, it's a better potential reason to buy the euro than....Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR -2K vs -21K prior...GBP -81K vs -91K prior...JPY -23 vs -27K prior...CHF -18K vs -17K prior...CAD -48K vs -43K prior...AUD +43K vs +43K prior...NZD -12K vs -15K prior....The market continued to pile into Canadian shorts through Tuesday but the....Meanwhile, the exodus from cable shorts continues as it flirts with 1...30.
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Intraday Market Thought: Fed Silence Speaks to June Hike
by Adam Button | Jun 5, 2017 10:17
Fed silence speaks to the likelihood of a hike on June 14 despite a....Last week the New Zealand dollar was the top performer while the Canadian dollar....The week begins with survey and inflation data...CFTC data showed euro net longs at a six-year high...Aussie is the day's winner after Gulf nations and Egypt break ties with....A new ICM poll for the Guardian shows Conservatives at 45%, Labour at 34%....UK May services slowed to 53...8 from 55...8...Eurozone final Apri services services PMI was at 56...3 from 56...4 in March...China's Caixin services PMI edged up to 52...8 in MAY from 51...5 in April...The Fed has now entered its blackout phase ahead of the FOMC decision...That means there will be no official communication before the statement that....It's important because official passed up opportunities to alter....FOMC members would know that markets are pricing in an 85% probability of a hike....So why did the dollar weaken after non-farm payrolls? The jobs headline was....The only positive sign was the drop in unemployment but that was entirely due....What's happened is that the market has cut the chance of another hike in....The market's base case is now that the Fed will hike but offer a more....In terms of economic data, it's another busy week ahead with the ECB....CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +73K vs +65K prior...GBP -30K vs -24K prior...JPY -52K vs -52K prior...CHF -19K vs -20K prior...CAD -98K vs -99K prior...AUD +3K vs +3K prior...NZD -5K vs -9K prior....Specs are feeling downright giddy about the euro's future prospects...EUR/USD finished on Friday at the highs of the day and at the best levels in 7....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Is Tax Reform Priced in?
by Adam Button | Sep 28, 2017 22:22
The US dollar struggled to maintain momentum on the heels of the tax....NZD was the top performer while USD lagged...Japanese CPI is due later...Friday's US core PCE will be key...5 new charts have been posted to subscribers backing the ongoing DAX30....The chart below is one them...The greenback has been beaten down for most of the year and finally looks....The tax proposal gave the dollar a lift Wednesday and sparked a sharp selloff in....That was despite a revision higher in Q2 GDP to 3...1% from 3...0%, a small-than-expected good trade deficit and wholesale inventories for....0% compared to a 0...4% decline expected...That's all good news but the USD dollar fell around a half-cent across....USD/JPY slowly slid to 112...24 from as high as 113...20 in Asian trading...Both EUR/USD and USD/JPY formed minor two-day double bottoms before the....9 months of disappointment for USD bulls is hard to shake off...Friday's critical PCE report will be a major factor in upcoming Fed....The bigger story, however, has to be taxes...The numbers and rates that the administration is floating would be a....The big question regarding tax reform is: What's priced in? Given the....Perhaps no one wants to bet on Congress and risk another brutal disappointment...We also have to consider the alternative: That a tax cut has already been priced....Maybe now the market is having doubts because there are so many barriers to a....It's tough to believe it's priced in but it's also tough to....Perhaps month end flows are skewing the signals...We will watch closely in the week ahead...In the meantime, Japan is out with a pair of key reports to close the week...Both CPI and employment data are due at 2330 GMT...Even with a rise in CPI to 0...6% (as expected) we struggle to see a shift from the BOJ any time soon.
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Intraday Market Thought: Yen, Yields Aussie & Loonie
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 16, 2018 17:57
In this video for GKFX, I examine the persistent divergence between yen pairs....I also looking at tonight's Australia jobs figures and Wednesday'....Full Video.
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Intraday Market Thought: Tuesday's pre Fed/ECB webinar
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 8, 2018 11:27
Join me for Tuesday's webinar with Tickmill at 15:00 London Time, 22:00....Full details.
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Intraday Market Thought: Indices Hit by Fresh Trade Retaliation
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 19, 2018 8:49
Global equity indices dip further into the red, led by US futures on Donald....The news came less than a week after the US and China imposed $50bn of tariffs....USDJPY has fallen below 110 as the yen rallies against all currencies, followed....All other currencies are weaker against the US dollar, with AUD at the bottom....Yesterday's Premium video includes new trades in indices...AUDUSD and EURJPY were both stopped out.
