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Results: 521 to 530 of 1,000
Results: 521 to 530 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Ahead of Tomorrow's Key UK Data
by Ashraf Laidi | Sep 16, 2014 20:31GBP traders preparing for Thursday's Scottish independence referendum will....These will be followed by Thursday's release of Aug retail sales...Tomorrow's jobs figures will likely be dominated by the earnings figure,....If we mentioned each single “If and but” of this week's UK....Ahead of these events, we issued a new GBP trade for our Premium Insights.. -
Intraday Market Thought: Lala Land FX Assumptions
by Ashraf Laidi | Jan 27, 2017 10:44
The notion that Trump's planned protectionist measures (tariffs and....nbsp; We're not in the 1980s or 1990s when US trading partners....Regarding the chart below: Yes, there were other factors driving the USD in....nbsp; But US trade actions are no longer going unanswered...The most recent example was W Bush having to reverse the 2001 steel tariffs....Imagine what the Chinese could do...Historical reminder: Since the 1990s, currency traders have consistently sold....Parallels with February 2002....It is no surprise that George W...Bush's war declaration on foreign steel in late 2001 aimed at saving the....By the time the WTO fined the US $2 bn in sanctions, the US dollar had lost 12%....Next Week: All about the Fed Statement & US Dollar....Considering warnings about USD strength by Trump and Mnuchin, any mention of the..
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Intraday Market Thought: Something Phenomenal or Paranormal
by Adam Button | Feb 9, 2017 23:46
The current market reminds us of Fox Mulder on the X-Files...He had a poster behind his desk that said 'I want to believe'....He was referring to aliens and the paranomal but in the market's case,....7 Premium trades are currently open: 3 in FX, 2 in commodities and 2 in equity....Like Mulder, whenever the market sees a shred of evidence, it jumps to....On Thursday, Donald Trump promised “something phenomenal” on....That was all the proof-of-life the market needed as the US dollar jumped 50-....The usual arc of an X-Files episode was that after the initial glimpse, Mulder&....In short, reality hit...Trump, Abe & Yen....On Friday, it's Japanese PM Abe, who will make a two day visit to meet and....The risk is that Trump attacks the yen...Abe has been on a charm offensive since Trump was elected but the President has....In general, Trump is cordial with his guests but it's too early to be sure...A newswire report, citing sources, said currencies aren't his priority in....That's the ebb and flow of this market...Trump promises a magical future and the market believes, then over the following....That same ebb and flow is the trade, it's a slow USD slide until the next....Other politicians are locked in similar battles so we must remain locked on..
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Intraday Market Thought: Canada-US Tweak, China Inflation Next
by Adam Button | Feb 13, 2017 22:37
The first meeting between Trump and Trudeau clarified the US President's....The pound was the top performer while the euro lagged...Chinese CPI and a speech from Kuroda are due up next...The Premium short EURUSD was closed with a 130-pip gain, leaving 2 USD trades....Canadian politicians and CAD traders have been scrambling for signs about how....In a joint press conference at the White House, Trump said trade problems....USD/CAD fell to the lows of the day at 1...3060 on the comments...The pair fell a half-cent in North American trade, despite a 2% fall in....The generally-positive assessment from Trump on trade and his commitments to....3000...Otherwise, newsflow was light to start the week before Tuesday's widely....nbsp; We noted a New York Fed consumer survey that showed inflation....8%....We will be looking for an assessment from Yellen in tomorrow's testimony...First, the focus shifts to China with the release of January CPI numbers at....Some skews begin to drop out of the data and the year-over-year number is....4% from 2...1%....The PPI is also expected to rise to 6...5% from 5...5%....China has fallen off the market's radar with all the political drama but....The other event to watch is a Kuroda speech at 0430 GMT...There is speculation in some parts of the market that he will start to shift..
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Intraday Market Thought: Decisions & Fear of Heights
by Ashraf Laidi | Mar 10, 2017 17:50
If you suffer from a fear of heights then careful when looking at the daily....After holding the long USDJPY Premium trade for over 2 months, we've....45 from the 114...10 entry...The decision to close USDJPY long and allow EURUSD long to run (bought at 1...0540) was made 15 mins before today's NFP report...The decision to do so was about 90% technicals-related and less than 10%....2% m/m vs exp 0...3% m/m despite other positives such as falling Unemp rate to 4...8% from 4...7%, 235K NFP vs exp 200K consensus and NFP upward revision)....But there's more to this...While holding the USDJPY long (bought at 114...10) the position suffered extended unrealised losses (stop was 111), but as....40 support (50% fib of the Jun 2015-June 2016 move) that already worked as key....After closing the USDJPY long, today's candle failed at the 50% retracement....Why I Let EURUSD Long Before NFP....A partial answer is my improved confidence with EURJPY after yesterday&....Another partial answer is related to the relationship between USDX and USDJPY,....Meanwhile, yesterday's EURAUD pre-ECB long is 150-pips in the green while..
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Intraday Market Thought: Ceteris Paribus
by Adam Button | May 9, 2017 23:49
Ceteris Paribus, what does it mean? Read on...How good is good enough? That's the growth question in 2017 and the answer....The pound was the top performer and the only currency to have risen against the....China inflation data is up next...USDJPY was stopped out and a new JPY trade was issued...nbsp; Below is the Premium video, dissecting the spectacular fall in....The US dollar flexed its muscles for the second day on Tuesday...USD/JPY climbed above 114...00 before closing just below on North Korea nuclear test worries...EUR/USD sank below 1...09 as the Macron trade continued to unwind...At the end of the day, the FX market is a beauty contest...But in 2017 it's more of a small town pageant than Miss Universe...US economic data has been mediocre for weeks and the Atlanta Fed cut its Q2 GDP....Yet, Ceteris Paribus (holding other things equal in Latin), growth around 2%....We will need at least 4 weeks before judging whether Macron's....In addition, it's the second week of the month and that means the US....Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to brush off weak growth in a sign that....The main event on the upcoming calendar is the China CPI for April...The consensus is for a 1...1% y/y rise, that's an increase from 0...9% in March...With inflation so low, the latest moves by Chinese officials to cool the economy....But the 'dual mandate' of China's government isn't just..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Pre-ECB Pause
by Adam Button | Jul 19, 2017 11:41
A quiet FX session in Asia and Europe ahead of ECB Thursday following another....Draghi may shed more light on the likelihood of signalling QE reduction,....US June housing starts and building permits are due next (see charts below)....We revisit yesterday's UK CPI figures below...There are 8 Premium trades in progress: 4 in FX, 2 in metals and 2 in indices...On Monday, we wrote about how the small USD bounce was a tell i...e a sign that it remained weak...Tuesday proved that to be true as the dollar fell hard across the board in....It hit multi-month lows against EUR, AUD, CAD in a sign that the breakdown is....The same appeared to be underway in cable but the trade reversed when UK....2% rise expected...Core measures also missed...In the aftermath, cable fell to 1...3005 from 1...3100...Despite the broad shift to more hawkish policies, no one is facing a genuine....Even in the UK, where it's running above 2%, it can almost entirely be....Equally fascinating was that Carney brushed off the soft data in an....He said it didn't change the big picture on prices...The confusing bit is that he's been on both sides of the big picture...He's said inflation will only be temporarily above target but he's....That sets up a resolution when we hear from the BOE again...They will get a look at consumers first with the retail sales report due..
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Intraday Market Thought: RBNZ Holds, Poloz Will Too
by Adam Button | Sep 27, 2017 23:52
The RBNZ held rates unchanged as largely expected but it was the BOC's Poloz....The US dollar was the top performer Wednesday while the Canadian dollar....The RBNZ left rates unchanged...The Pre-Fed EURUSD Premium short hit its final 1...1730 target for 180-pip gain...A new trade has been issued...قطار تصحيح الدولار (فيديو من الصفقات والرسوم البيانية للمشتركين فقط)....The RBNZ left the official cash rate at 1...75% and said a lower New Zealand dollar would help the economy...That's a slight downgrade in the jawboning but the main message that....Kiwi slipped on the headlines but the overall message was largely priced in...A central bank that has kept the market off balance has been the Bank of Canada...That's in part because of a lack of communication since the tightening cycle....The market had been pricing in a 38% chance of a hike in October and a 68%....That's looking far less likely after Poloz signaled a wait-and-see stance...He said the BOC will proceed cautiously from here while repeatedly emphasizing....In particular, he highlighted that the BOC wanted to see the effects of the....That's going to take time and means October is off the table, barring a....Outside of Poloz, the theme on the day was US dollar strength led by a selloff....Republicans announced some details of the tax plan and that helped stocks....USD/JPY rose as high as 113...26 before fading to 112...80...Meanwhile, we had highlighted downside risks for EUR/USD and it fell to 1...1717, a one month low...Looking ahead, the euro will be in particular focus in the day ahead with..
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Intraday Market Thought: From Eurozone CPI to US PCE
by Adam Button | Nov 30, 2017 12:44
Aside from the news of Bitcoin rocketing to $11,434 before plunging back to....nbsp; Markets turn next to US October core PCE index, the Fed's favourite....4% from 1...3%....Earlier, Eurozone preliminary Nov CPI rose to 1...5% from 1...4%, undershooting expectations of 1...6%....The Premium Insights service took 150-pip gain in GBPUSD...A new trade will be posted before start of the US opening bell...Bitcoin was gripped by the FOMO phase over the past month and that led to an....It continued through $10,000 on Wednesday until a wave of profit taking....Later, it rebounded to $10,200 but some exchanges were having difficulty...The volatility created a massive indecisive candle on the chart and that....However, all the attention and volatility hasn't been a negative up....In financial markets, the main story on the day was a rise in global bond yields...German and US 10-year yields rose 5-6 bps and that was a reason to buy yen....USD/JPY rebounded for the second day and hit 112...00...The gains came after some upbeat comments from Fed Chair Yellen...She said growth was becoming more broad based...The second look at Q3 GDP was also revised to +3...3% from +3...2% in part due to strong business investment...The most-solid trend at the moment in FX is sterling's climb...It's risen in 10 of the past 12 sessions and is trading at the best....Ashraf pointed out in the video that the 7 consecutive daily gains were the....Signs of progress on Brexit negotiations continue to mount and that's..
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Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin Bonanza
by Adam Button | Dec 8, 2017 10:57
We are fast approaching the make-or-break moment for Bitcoin...Prices gyrated wildly Thursday with some exchanges nearing $20,000 but systems....In FX, sterling gathers upward momentum on news that DUP intends to strike a....The US jobs report is up next...2 new trade actions in the Premium Insights were issued on EURUSD...It's impossible to avoid talking about Bitcoin at the moment, which is....What's not clear is how and when it will end but aside from the violent....The first is the increasingly slow and expensive transaction costs...It's clear that Bitcoin will never replace fiat currency – long one....It currently costs $13 to do any transaction and takes upwards of 7 hours....One thing everyone will be hearing more about in the days ahead are the mempool...This is the backlog of transactions and it's growing at a fast rate...If there is ever a stampede to the exits, this problem will be a devastating....At the same time, the exchanges are under increasing strain...Outages hit the main trading hubs again on Thursday...That's a major red flag...Bitcoin has proven significant resilience to bad news...The dip after hitting $10,000 was bought and reports of hacks, theft and fraud....That's a sign of a roaring market...The catalyst that everyone is watching is the introduction of futures trading....Both are cash-settled contracts so they shouldn't affect the underlying....We will be watching closely...Elsewhere, the US dollar founds its legs on Thursday as USD/JPY rose to a three-....Non-farm payrolls is due on Friday and indications from the ADP report was....If they tick up, then the dollar could start to recover much of the July/Aug..
