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  • Intraday Market Thought: Ceteris Paribus

    by Adam Button | May 9, 2017 23:49
    Ceteris Paribus Chart Ceteris Paribus, what does it mean?  Read on...How good is good enough? That's the growth question in 2017 and the answer....The pound was the top performer and the only currency to have risen against the....China inflation data is up next...USDJPY was stopped out and a new JPY trade was issued...nbsp; Below is the Premium video, dissecting the spectacular fall in....The US dollar flexed its muscles for the second day on Tuesday...USD/JPY climbed above 114...00 before closing just below on North Korea nuclear test worries...EUR/USD sank below 1...09 as the Macron trade continued to unwind...At the end of the day, the FX market is a beauty contest...But in 2017 it's more of a small town pageant than Miss Universe...US economic data has been mediocre for weeks and the Atlanta Fed cut its Q2 GDP....Yet, Ceteris Paribus (holding other things equal in Latin), growth around 2%....We will need at least 4 weeks before judging whether Macron's....In addition, it's the second week of the month and that means the US....Meanwhile, Fed officials continue to brush off weak growth in a sign that....The main event on the upcoming calendar is the China CPI for April...The consensus is for a 1...1% y/y rise, that's an increase from 0...9% in March...With inflation so low, the latest moves by Chinese officials to cool the economy....But the 'dual mandate' of China's government isn't just..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The Pre-ECB Pause

    by Adam Button | Jul 19, 2017 11:41
    The Pre-ECB Pause Chart A quiet FX session in Asia and Europe ahead of ECB Thursday following another....Draghi may shed more light on the likelihood of signalling QE reduction,....US June housing starts and building permits are due next (see charts below)....We revisit yesterday's UK CPI figures below...There are 8 Premium trades in progress: 4 in FX, 2 in metals and 2 in indices...On Monday, we wrote about how the small USD bounce was a tell i...e a sign that it remained weak...Tuesday proved that to be true as the dollar fell hard across the board in....It hit multi-month lows against EUR, AUD, CAD in a sign that the breakdown is....The same appeared to be underway in cable but the trade reversed when UK....2% rise expected...Core measures also missed...In the aftermath, cable fell to 1...3005 from 1...3100...Despite the broad shift to more hawkish policies, no one is facing a genuine....Even in the UK, where it's running above 2%, it can almost entirely be....Equally fascinating was that Carney brushed off the soft data in an....He said it didn't change the big picture on prices...The confusing bit is that he's been on both sides of the big picture...He's said inflation will only be temporarily above target but he's....That sets up a resolution when we hear from the BOE again...They will get a look at consumers first with the retail sales report due..

  • Intraday Market Thought: RBNZ Holds, Poloz Will Too

    by Adam Button | Sep 27, 2017 23:52
    RBNZ Holds, Poloz Will Too Chart The RBNZ held rates unchanged as largely expected but it was the BOC's Poloz....The US dollar was the top performer Wednesday while the Canadian dollar....The RBNZ left rates unchanged...The Pre-Fed EURUSD Premium short hit its final 1...1730 target for 180-pip gain...A new trade has been issued...قطار تصحيح الدولار (فيديو من الصفقات والرسوم البيانية للمشتركين فقط)....The RBNZ left the official cash rate at 1...75% and said a lower New Zealand dollar would help the economy...That's a slight downgrade in the jawboning but the main message that....Kiwi slipped on the headlines but the overall message was largely priced in...A central bank that has kept the market off balance has been the Bank of Canada...That's in part because of a lack of communication since the tightening cycle....The market had been pricing in a 38% chance of a hike in October and a 68%....That's looking far less likely after Poloz signaled a wait-and-see stance...He said the BOC will proceed cautiously from here while repeatedly emphasizing....In particular, he highlighted that the BOC wanted to see the effects of the....That's going to take time and means October is off the table, barring a....Outside of Poloz, the theme on the day was US dollar strength led by a selloff....Republicans announced some details of the tax plan and that helped stocks....USD/JPY rose as high as 113...26 before fading to 112...80...Meanwhile, we had highlighted downside risks for EUR/USD and it fell to 1...1717, a one month low...Looking ahead, the euro will be in particular focus in the day ahead with..

  • Intraday Market Thought: From Eurozone CPI to US PCE

    by Adam Button | Nov 30, 2017 12:44
    From Eurozone CPI to US PCE Chart Aside from the news of Bitcoin rocketing to $11,434 before plunging back to....nbsp; Markets turn next to US October core PCE index, the Fed's favourite....4% from 1...3%....Earlier, Eurozone preliminary Nov CPI rose to 1...5% from 1...4%, undershooting expectations of 1...6%....The Premium Insights service took 150-pip gain in GBPUSD...A new trade will be posted before start of the US opening bell...Bitcoin was gripped by the FOMO phase over the past month and that led to an....It continued through $10,000 on Wednesday until a wave of profit taking....Later, it rebounded to $10,200 but some exchanges were having difficulty...The volatility created a massive indecisive candle on the chart and that....However, all the attention and volatility hasn't been a negative up....In financial markets, the main story on the day was a rise in global bond yields...German and US 10-year yields rose 5-6 bps and that was a reason to buy yen....USD/JPY rebounded for the second day and hit 112...00...The gains came after some upbeat comments from Fed Chair Yellen...She said growth was becoming more broad based...The second look at Q3 GDP was also revised to +3...3% from +3...2% in part due to strong business investment...The most-solid trend at the moment in FX is sterling's climb...It's risen in 10 of the past 12 sessions and is trading at the best....Ashraf pointed out in the video that the 7 consecutive daily gains were the....Signs of progress on Brexit negotiations continue to mount and that's..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin Bonanza

    by Adam Button | Dec 8, 2017 10:57
    Bitcoin Bonanza Chart We are fast approaching the make-or-break moment for Bitcoin...Prices gyrated wildly Thursday with some exchanges nearing $20,000 but systems....In FX, sterling gathers upward momentum on news that DUP intends to strike a....The US jobs report is up next...2 new trade actions in the Premium Insights were issued on EURUSD...It's impossible to avoid talking about Bitcoin at the moment, which is....What's not clear is how and when it will end but aside from the violent....The first is the increasingly slow and expensive transaction costs...It's clear that Bitcoin will never replace fiat currency – long one....It currently costs $13 to do any transaction and takes upwards of 7 hours....One thing everyone will be hearing more about in the days ahead are the mempool...This is the backlog of transactions and it's growing at a fast rate...If there is ever a stampede to the exits, this problem will be a devastating....At the same time, the exchanges are under increasing strain...Outages hit the main trading hubs again on Thursday...That's a major red flag...Bitcoin has proven significant resilience to bad news...The dip after hitting $10,000 was bought and reports of hacks, theft and fraud....That's a sign of a roaring market...The catalyst that everyone is watching is the introduction of futures trading....Both are cash-settled contracts so they shouldn't affect the underlying....We will be watching closely...Elsewhere, the US dollar founds its legs on Thursday as USD/JPY rose to a three-....Non-farm payrolls is due on Friday and indications from the ADP report was....If they tick up, then the dollar could start to recover much of the July/Aug..

  • Intraday Market Thought: US Dollar Rebounds. What Next?

    by Adam Button | Jan 29, 2018 23:38
    US Dollar Rebounds. What Next? Chart Another bounce in the dollar to fade? The greenback was the top performer....Japanese employment and retail sales are due up next...بين الفيكس و المؤشرات (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....US Treasury yields continued the march higher with 10-years hitting 2...70% on Monday and that was part of the reason for a bounce in the dollar...Another factor was US personal income beating expectations a +0...4% m/m compared to +0...3% expected...Spending was slightly lower than expectations but the prior revised....The Atlanta Fed pegged its first tracking estimate at Q1 GDP at 4...2%....While there is solid optimism about the US dollar, there are higher hopes....All the money that flowed into the US dollar during the European crisis is now....Emerging market and commodity investors are also shifting towards more....So long as risk appetite remains robust – and there is no reason to think....Even on Monday, the strong start for the dollar that pushed the euro down to 1...2337 faded later and it bounced to 1...2375...In terms of USD/JPY, the pair battled to get above 109...00 and was helped by talk of a BOJ/MOF meeting but it's too soon to talk....As for what's next, Japanese employment is due at 2330 GMT but the....The consensus is for a 0...4% m/m decline...It's unlikely to be a market mover but if Japan can put together a long..

  • Intraday Market Thought: The 3% Quandary

    by Adam Button | Feb 21, 2018 23:24
    The 3% Quandary Chart The FOMC Minutes led to a whipsaw in US dollar trading Wednesday and exposed a....The US dollar was the top performer once again while the Australian dollar....China returns from holiday in the day ahead...9 Premium trades are currently in progress, 2 of which in indices...The FOMC Minutes didn't offer much in the way of surprises but ....The US dollar fell 30-40 pips across the board on the headlines only to make a....In the lead-up to the release, there was fear about an especially hawkish set of....Instead, there was the predictable optimism about growth along with hints....At first, it seemed fears in the market were soothed...The US dollar dropped and stock markets rallied...But bond traders pushed yields further in a sign of jitters about four rate....A short time late, stocks joined bonds lower and USD rallied...The looming level is 3% in the 10-year note...It rose 6 bps to 2...95% Wednesday – the highest since 2014...Along with the big figure, the 2014 high of 3...06% is a major level of resistance...At this point, other markets are beginning to get worried about the....We get the sense that many are heading to the sidelines to see how it will....Ultimately, 3% is just a number and it's not a magical line in the sand that&....But until then, expect further jitters to continue...If you're in London this week, you can attend Ashraf's full assessment....Looking ahead, the Asia-Pacific economic calendar is light but it includes the....That's likely to add a bit of volatility and certainly some flows...Further down the agenda, the Fed's Quarles speaks at 0515 GMT along with....All that should make for plenty of action.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Signals Within the Wild Ride

    by Adam Button | Mar 28, 2018 14:00
    Signals Within the Wild Ride Chart US dollar strength on Tuesday morphed into risk aversion...The yen was the top performer while the Australian dollar lagged...The Asia-Pacific calendar is light...A new JPY trade has been posted for Premium subscribers...End of month and end of quarter flows will likely enforce USD corrective....انتهاز الحركات التصحيحية (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Ashraf warned about yen strength late last week and that unfolded in the....It has been a harrowing time for intraday traders with some major swings....The confluence of trade jitters, tech/privacy worries and month-end came....The S&P 500 fell by as much as 61 points at the lows after gaining 20....USD/JPY was sucked lower down to 105...38, erasing what had been a strong start to the day for the dollar...But the overall USD corrective action has forced the pair towards 106...20s as indices attempt to get back in the green...The dangers of trading at month/quarter end are well known but the swings in the....Note the consistent pattern risk aversion in late Jan, Feb and now March....nbsp; For the S&P 500, it's critical that it stays above the 200-day....A worrisome signal emerges from bonds as 10-year yields fall below recent....77%....That could help to accelerate USD/JPY towards the targets that Ashraf has....For what's next, continue to watch for headlines on trade but note that....Moody's downgrade of Tesla's, Goldman Sachs' downgrade of Apple&..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Minutes & Geopolitics Balance out on USD

    by Adam Button | Apr 11, 2018 19:28
    Fed Minutes & Geopolitics Balance out on USD Chart USD struggles to hold on to gains sustained following the release of the....US-Russia relations hit hard by President Trump's statements on....CAD and JPY were the highest performers of the day ahead of the minutes....2% as expected...The premium short USDCAD trade was closed for 230-pip gain...Below is the week's Premium video...The minutes indicated: “A number of participants indicated that the....Yet, most Fed members saw wage gains as "moderate", while a strong....Aside from broad USD weakness, EURUSD remains boosted by ECB's Nowotny....Nowotny said the ECB will end asset buys by year-end then talked about raising....The market entirely expects an announcement to end QE this summer but....An ECB spokesman later announced that he was only speaking for himself...Novotny is an experienced member of the Governing Council so it's an odd....Today, EURUSD is up for the 4th straight day...nbsp;....In the bigger picture, risk appetite was buoyant after Xi's attempts to de-....That was later followed by a tweet from Trump thanking him for the progress...The change in tone sent the commodity currencies and equities solidly higher.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Oil Nudged By Nukes

    by Adam Button | Apr 30, 2018 23:35
    Oil Nudged By Nukes Chart We warned earlier to watch the Iran nuclear situation closely, and it became....The US dollar was the top performer on the day while the New Zealand dollar....We take a look at May seasonals as the new month begins...A new Premium trade in a major index was posted earlier today...It is currently 150 pts in the green...Geopolitics is always a guessing game...The talk always exceeds the action but people and markets are fearful by nature...On Monday, Netanyahu revealed that Israeli intelligence uncovered a trove....Without getting into the details, there are two questions: 1) Will anyone attack....The first remains extremely unlikely at this point, despite some hawks in the....War is unpopular in the US and would have no support in Europe...On the second question, the market is leaning towards expecting sanctions,....Oil jumped more than $1 from the lows Monday on Netanyahu's speech...That might be the wrong takeaway...Instead, this could be the next wave of a coordinated US-Israel PR campaign....If so, it didn't appear very coordinated Monday...In comments after Netanyahu's speech, Trump said the same things he's....More likely, it was a solo attempt by Israel to influence leaders in the west....We will be watching Trump's twitter closely for clues...The calendar now turns to May for the forex market...Seasonal patterns performed well in April and some seemed to get a head....One is Australian and New Zealand dollar weakness...They were strong to start April but cratered late in the month...The seasonal picture remains dark with May as the worst month for AUD and third-....It shouldn't be a surprise that it's also a tough month for base metals...Global equity markets were strong in April, especially outside the United....The old adage about selling in May doesn't really apply...It's a weaker month than April, but by no means a poor month...It is, however, the weakest month on the calendar for the euro and with EUR/USD....20, it could get weak in a hurry.
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