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Results: 51 to 60 of 1,000
Results: 51 to 60 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: French Elections Revisit 0.5
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 6, 2022 17:14
French presidential elections are due this month, which means fresh selling of....The far-right candidate is once again Marine Le Pen, while the more accepted....Just like in April 2017, the spread of French 10-year yields over its German....50%, a level last seen during the global bond market rout of March 2020 and....Why is this happening again? Are the fears more substantial this time?....Deepening Le Pen's Disastrous Market Implications....Polls put Macron in the lead with 27%, versus 23...5% for the Le Pen, making inevitable a repeat run-off between the two in the....Markets fear that the anti-Euro Le Pen -- who despite having dropped her....Especially negative for the markets is Le Pen's opposition to the EU's....Any sign of her advancing further in the polls, could risk a breakdown in the EU&....Unlike in 2017, Le Pen is drawing votes from backers of Eric Zemmour, an anti-....nbsp;....The above chart highlights the similarity in the ascent of FRA-GER....While 0...5% appears as a staunch resistance, it seems a break towards 0...70% is plausible, which could force EURUSD to retest the all important 1...0800 support...Stay tuned for the 1st round on April 23, followed by the 2nd round on May 7...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: China Uncertainty & Brexit Scenarios
by Adam Button | Jan 15, 2019 13:57
We have already covered Brexit yesterday on here so we'll cover China's....CAD & NZD are the strongest and CHF & JPY are the weakest since the....The Brexit vote is due later today at 14:00 Eastern/19:00 GMT...The Premium video ahead of the Brexit vote shall be posted to subscribers....nbsp; More on Brexit Vote Scenarios here...China's economy could be struggling far more than believed...We have long highlighted the importance of Chinese imports as a leading....Trade is also one of the most-reliable Chinese data points owing to its....In yuan terms, imports fell 3...1% year-over-year in December compared to a rise of +12...0% expected...In dollar terms imports were down 7...6% y/y (lowest since mid 2016), compared to +4...5% expected...Either way it's one the largest misses on Chinese data in memory...The market was surprisingly sanguine...The thinking is that this is a temporary slowdown that will be reversed by the....Moreover, China has previously resorted to industrial levers, but this time it....The Chinese data calendar is quiet until next Monday when retail sales,....Watch for de-risking on Friday ahead of the data and keep an eye on corporate....In the shorter term, the focus will be on the meaningful Brexit vote...It's expected between 1900-20:00 GMT...For more on this, please see yesterday's IMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Williams Confirms Neutral Pre Minutes
by Adam Button | Feb 20, 2019 10:48
The US dollar fell across the board on a combination of Yuan-related comments....Today's FOMC Minutes should reveal more on the shift to neutral...A new USD trade has been issued on Tuesday night in line with the....Currently, 8 of the 9 existing trades are in the green...The video also details why we confirmed our EURUSD long on Friday when the pair....Williams on Tuesday said rates are already at neutral...That's a slight shift from earlier communication...It's a further sign that policymakers will be in no rush to hike....Importantly, policymakers are increasingly pointing to risks abroad as....That means that even months of positive US economic data may not be enough to....The dollar sagged throughout the day and risk assets rallied along with gold....The pound was the top performer on hopes for some kind of progress on Brexit....There was also talk that the Malthouse compromise is alive once again...In trade talks, the US was said to press for a stable yuan...That's a tough thing to ask for because the Chinese currency continues....At most this should probably be seen as a pledge to halt any quick yuan declines....Still, it's a boost to broader emerging market currencies and an idea....Looking ahead, the pound will remain in focus after the rise above the 200-day....A poor outcome from May's meeting could send it right back below 1...2900...Meanwhile, the Fed Minutes risk sending conflicting signals on positive domestic..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold: Is it Different this Time?
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 3, 2019 15:41
Is the ascent in gold another example of its many unsustainable rallies? Or will....7% in May, posting its biggest monthly gain since January, thanks to a helpful....We won't go through the powerful textbook technicals justifying the....But there are other dynamics...Resurfacing market expectations of a Fed rate cut this year (86% chance of a....USD Recurring Failures & Stagflation Risks....The recurring failures of various USD pairs to retest and break recent highs....Whether it is USDCNY's failure to break 6...0, EURUSD's holding above 1...10 or USDJPY's cap at 112, the FX message is loud and clear...nbsp;....Today's release of US May manufacturing ISM hitting 2 ½....Last week, the PMI version of manufacturing hit a 10-year low...Perhpas "stagflation" is a little exageration, but slowing growth....Silver's striking signal?....What about silver? Is it time for gold's cheaper cousin to finally wake up?....All these fundamentals factors are well and good...You probably have read a similar narrative 6 months or 2 years ago...The key here is to figure out whether the price action will enter a new wave....And that's what I'll cover in tonight's Premium Video.
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Intraday Market Thought: Bonds vs Tech & Golden/Death Crosses
by Adam Button | Jul 10, 2020 17:44
Mixeds global indices as a result of more bad news on the Corona front,....As the SPX shows a Golden Cross in its 55/200 MA cross, here's more on the&....and golddenRelentless dip-buying in tech supported equities Thursday but the....CAD is the weakest of the day alongside AUD-- despite an upside surprise in....JPY and GBP lead the day, with cable revisiting Thursday's 1...2660s high, keeping Thurday's Premium long in cable +160 pips in the....Below is today's content from Ashraf's WhatsApp Broadcast Group (open....nbsp;....At 17:30 Friday London, Nasdaq is down -0...2%, while DOW30 and SPX are up more than 0...5%....Risk trades soured Thursday on stubbornly high US unemployment claims....However it was a different story in the bond market as 10-year Treasury yields....6 bps as the steepener trade unwound...Long bond yields are now at the lowest since May 15 in a growing sign of the....Florida virus cases breached the 7-day average while Arizona's rise matched....Schools closed in Hong Kong due to a sharp rebound in cases, while a shrimp....As Ashraf said to his WhatsApp Broadcast Group, he expected more buy-the-dip in....80...nbsp;....One of the things market bulls frequently cite is the low US mortality....California and Florida both reported record one-day highs...nbsp;It all sets up for another battle on Friday, a day where virus testing and....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Bottom for Rates
by Adam Button | Oct 8, 2020 18:27
Kiwi and Loonie went their separate ways...The RBNZ highlighted on Thursday that it's “actively working” on....Even with the more-aggressive negative rate talk, the New Zealand dollar hardly....CAD soared across the board as US crude regained 41...A new Premium trade was issued on Wednesday...Below are 2 mystery charts...Care to guess?....The default mode for central bankers at the moment is to do more...10-year rates in New Zealand are at 0...55%....While that's more than 100 bps above German 10s, it remains a pitiful level....Moreover, the New Zealand's economy has a host of geographic and demographic....Still, it's increasingly clear that more is coming...This was hinted in the September monetary policy review but comments from....Yet after a small dip, the kiwi bounced right back...The rates market also brushed it off...It's similar elsewhere as central banks mull ways to do more even as bond....US 30-year rates are a market we're watching closely at the moment and they....Perhaps that's owing to polls showing a blue wave but it's also an....5% for 30 years is a dismal return and that with central banks and governments....With the RBNZ still set to act, we're clearly not there yet on a central....Whether it's a blow-off or a long topping process is a tougher question..
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Intraday Market Thought: FedSpeak Train & Unwinding Underway
by Adam Button | Apr 7, 2021 14:10
Little has changed in the underlying economic fundamentals this week but a....We will hear from 4 Fed speakers today (Evans, Kaplan, Barkin & Daly) see....More US data strength emerged yesterday with the JOLTS job openings at 7367K in....The US dollar stabilises against most currencies following a 2-day retreat,....The charts below show that since the start of the day (after 10 pm London)....nbsp; Today is an opportunity for the Fed to make waves...nbsp;....The IMF yesterday upgraded its global growth forecast on Tuesday to 6...0% from 5...5% in the January forecasts...That's mostly due to US stimulus but it's also important to note that....That speaks to the resilience of growth so far this year...Both news items are a continuation of recent macro strength, yet markets are....US yields fell below pre-NFP levels and a number of unwinds are way in FX,....Beyond Stimulus Impact....Skeptics will point out that March was likely boosted by stimulus payments but....The question is whether inflation will rise too high and if the Fed will be....The prices paid component in the ISM survey was the highest since 2008...The debate is whether the US reopening strength is a domestic phenomenon in....If so, the commodity currencies stand to benefit greatly from a surge in global....This isn't an easy move to explain...It's just an episode of consolidation after a straight-line move....The new fiscal year in Japan and wide Treasury spreads of Japanese and....The rest of the market is likely keying off of that...Ultimately, this will likely be a move to fade but it's worth watching....Looking ahead, the highlight will be Fedspeak with Kaplan, Barkin, Daly and....There's a détente at the moment with the market pricing in Fed....The Fed has pushed back on the idea but Powell also conceded that the only way....Meanwhile the bond market also hasn't pushed beyond what the Fed will....What could change? The Fed could indicate an early withdrawal of stimulus....At the moment though, none of that is in play, though Dallas' Kaplan (at....Still, even if he doubles down on that idea or pushes harder, he's in a..
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Intraday Market Thought: Lagarde Cautiousness & Biden's Taxes
by Adam Button | Apr 22, 2021 22:33
All market chatter is about Biden's taxes & their impact on shares and....But let's discuss that ECB decision first-- The economic outlook is....The yen was the top performer while the kiwi lagged...Biden's tax proposal is discussed below...The Markit surveys are up next...Below are the messages on upcoming EURUSD descent issued to the WhatsApp....The volatility & subsequent selloff followed as foretold...Expectations were for the ECB to leave PEPP purchases unchanged and that's....However there were some who thought the could pre-announce a return to a slower....What was more of a surprise was how somber Lagarde remained...Eurozone economic data has improved considerably since the start of the year....That was seen again Thursday with consumer confidence rising to -8...1 from -10...8...Lagarde forecast that growth would 'firm' later in the year and said....In offering a hint at why, Lagarde pointed to a lower level of fiscal....The euro sagged after the press conference and briefly broke below 1...20...Much of the decline was on risk aversion in large part due to risk aversion on a....That was something he campaigned on but it evidently took the market by surprise....Biden's Tax Proposal....The preliminary tax announcement consists of raising the top income tax....6% and levying income and capital gains tax rates for earners of more than $1mn...Combining these hikes with the those from Obama's health care reform, the....Markets sold off on the announcement, but it is not inconceivable for markets....There's also talk that ultimately the new tax rate will settle at at 28%....The day ahead features most of the global manufacturing and services PMIs....The increases in these metrics in the past 2-3 months have been swift but what&....Every comment in the KC Fed on Thursday was a nod to supply chain disruptions,....ldquo;It is very difficult to handle the increased business with supply chain....quot;Entry level pay will need to be increased...This will create pressure on all other positions,” was another.
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Intraday Market Thought: Back From the Abyss & the 250-pt ride
by Adam Button | Jul 23, 2021 13:08
Markets have a few more days of risk-on before Wednesday's FOMC meeting...Will this be a case of a quick ascent to 35090s in the DOW and 4400s in the S&....71 NZDUSD? More below...nbsp; At the start of the week, markets looked with panic into the abyss of....But a few days later the mood has shifted as the market weighs the risks....nbsp; The Markit PMIs for UK and EU were disappointing, but didn't orevent....We turn to Canadian retail sales next...DOW30 and SPX completed their way to 35000 and 4390 with the help of a....The turnaround from Monday's pessimism has been impressive...The US CDC underscored covid risks on Thursday by highlighting a 53% week-over-....That led to a momentary drop in equities, yields and risk trades in general...Once again though, the market shrugged it off...As we dwell on it, the ultimate question regarding covid is simple: Will....They may get sick but they'll fully participate in the economy beforehand....Of course, vaccine efficacy isn't a black/white question...There are degrees of success and problems – particularly in schools....The delta variant is problematic on many levels but data continues to show that....So unless (or until) there's a variant that truly beats the vaccine,....To be sure, the latest news could slow the trajectory of the recovery and....With regards to next Wednesday's FOMC meeting, there's talk of using....The key then is how will Powell communicate this discussion at Wednesday&....There are challenges worth monitoring closely but AUD/USD is at 7-month lows,....China's crackdown on tech stocks is also weighing on the pair...nbsp;....What's less clear is how strong the response will be in reopening economies...We will get two data points on that question on Friday with the Markit US....The latter report is for May but Statistics Canada is also releasing..
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Intraday Market Thought: Sideways Trading & Diverging Arguments
by Ashraf Laidi | May 12, 2020 16:16
As US indices trade at their tightest range in three months, it's time to....The fundamental narrative contains plenty of arguments for further upside....US CPI fell the most since 2008, while core inflation posted its biggest....Below is this week's Premium Video, detailing the current and potential....The WhatsApp Broadcast Group for VIP Premium subscribers is now fully....Equity bulls point to to the gradual reopening of the economy and consumer....Add to it the US govt's readiness to deliver additional stimulus and the....Bears argue markets have returned to overvalued levels given the ongoing....A few things we're watching are the NASDAQ's attempt to fill and break....The semiconductors index 1800 resistance is another...In FX, EURUSD is seen recapturing 1...0950 and gold 1723...There are also crucial developments on the metals space (as per Friday's..
