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Results: 51 to 60 of 1,000
Results: 51 to 60 of 1,000
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Intraday Market Thought: Election Scenario #3: Status Quo
by Adam Button | Nov 3, 2020 17:35
In the countdown to the election we will look at the most likely outcomes and....Today we cover 3rd possible scenario -- A Trump win with Republicans....The previous 2 scenarios were listed in Scenario 1 and Scenario 2....nbsp; ....This outcome would be a moderate surprise and another big loss for....It would be better for equity markets than a Biden with a Republican Senate as....There's also a better chance of a deal in the lame duck Senate...Trump's use of executive powers would be more favorable for stocks,....Some might argue this is the most favorable outcome for equities, if only....At the same point, it's not priced in and much of the reaction would stem....If it's similar to four years ago in that it's a clean win, then the....If it's close and contested then risks rise...Beyond that, Trump always remains a wild card and what he does next is always....In terms of the US dollar, this is the middle ground...It's not as negative as a blue wave, and not as positive as a Biden win....Beyond that, we will have to wait for guidance from policymakers in the House,....A tail risk scenario is a repeat of 2016 where Republicans win the House as well...That would be market-positive and dollar negative as it would mean more tax cuts....In the longer term, its legacy would be of Trump's formula for success....That's negative for globalization; and in any Trump-winning scenario....In all our scenarios it's tough – if not impossible – to....For better or worse, aggressive partisanship is here to stay.
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Intraday Market Thought: 80 Oil & Lasting Inflation Fears
by Adam Button | Oct 5, 2021 14:01
A long list of fears is weighing on risk appetite and adding to volatility at....A fresh rise in oil prices to a seven-year high on Monday underscores the....US crude oil is entering its 7th weekly gain, the longest series of weekly gains....nbsp; The ISM non-manufacturing survey is up next...A new Premium trade has been issued based on an imminent triangle breakout...nbsp;....There's no single catalyst behind the recent slump in global equities...Lately market watchers are pointing to the debt ceiling but we've been....Covid is clearly fading in the market's mind...Shares of vaccine makers have been falling and weekend cinema box office....Nonetheless, there's still lasting fear and concern about structural....China and Evergrande are certainly concerns, but the market has a long....We fear that 'common prosperity' is a sign of a generational shift in....Supply chain issues are clearly getting worse...Ports are backed up and there's talk about empty shelves for Christmas...It's an issue we haven't seen before and it's next-to-impossible....But none of that takes into consideration the impact of inflation...Surveys increasingly show that businesses plan to raise prices...Workers are also asking for wages...The Fed doggedly points to market-based measures of inflation but with QE, the....As yields inevitably rise, the noise around inflation will grow louder...Nasdaq is now overwhelmingly seen as a long duration asset and it's 8% off....Tech has carried much of the pandemic recovery, and we'd note that 62% of....That's beginning to show up in the high-flying tech stocks that have done....Looking ahead, at 1400 GMT, the ISM non-manufacturing survey is due up...The prior reading was 61...7 and it's expected to dip to 60...Within the report, the prices paid component was previously at 75...4 and a further rise would re-energize the inflationary chorus...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: ISM-Clarida Shake Yields up
by Ashraf Laidi | Aug 4, 2021 17:11
Just as falling bond yields were becoming the path of least resistance, a....The pre-FOMC Premium trade in NZDUSD is now over 100-pips in the green and....nbsp; Ashraf told the WhatsApp Broadcast Group (see below) he remained long gold....nbsp;....Services ISM hit a fresh record at 64...1 with strong gains in prices paid (82...3 from 79...5) and employment (53...8 from 49...3)....Clarida doubled down on taper and rates, saying the former could start as early....10 year yields spiked from under 1...14% to over 1...20%, dragging metals and JPY across the board...Clarida's comments could grease the wheels of USD bulls on any sign of....nbsp;....Did Clarida's comments tell us anything new? Apart from telling us he....The division inside the Fed will likely grow wider, which will only lead them to....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: Housing Highlights non-Transitory Inflation
by Adam Button | Oct 19, 2021 18:54
The post-pandemic spike in US home prices flattened recently, but the....Risk trades continued to advance Tuesday with the kiwi shining...The first Bitcoin ETF started trading in the US as BTC regained the $63k mark...Overall USD weakness partly driven by the year's 2nd biggest daily decline....The US NAHB home builder survey rose on Monday to 80 from 76...Comments from large home builders underscore an overwhelming willingness....That dynamic is likely why Tuesday's housing starts and building permits....Starts were flat on single family homes while permits fell 7...7% in a surprise dip...In the bigger picture, the difficulties in building homes should fuel a longer....That's inflationary but it's also stimulative and will add to the....It will likely resolve into stronger global growth and the US filling in some....Since the financial crisis, US housing significantly underperformed developed....But these challenges are fading, and pandemic-era shifts are creating secular....Within all this, keep a close eye on lumber prices, which were written off....The futures market is extraordinarily thin and is outpacing the physical....Though it's still way below the May high of $1675, the recent trend is up...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: French Elections Revisit 0.5
by Ashraf Laidi | Apr 6, 2022 17:14
French presidential elections are due this month, which means fresh selling of....The far-right candidate is once again Marine Le Pen, while the more accepted....Just like in April 2017, the spread of French 10-year yields over its German....50%, a level last seen during the global bond market rout of March 2020 and....Why is this happening again? Are the fears more substantial this time?....Deepening Le Pen's Disastrous Market Implications....Polls put Macron in the lead with 27%, versus 23...5% for the Le Pen, making inevitable a repeat run-off between the two in the....Markets fear that the anti-Euro Le Pen -- who despite having dropped her....Especially negative for the markets is Le Pen's opposition to the EU's....Any sign of her advancing further in the polls, could risk a breakdown in the EU&....Unlike in 2017, Le Pen is drawing votes from backers of Eric Zemmour, an anti-....nbsp;....The above chart highlights the similarity in the ascent of FRA-GER....While 0...5% appears as a staunch resistance, it seems a break towards 0...70% is plausible, which could force EURUSD to retest the all important 1...0800 support...Stay tuned for the 1st round on April 23, followed by the 2nd round on May 7...nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: China Uncertainty & Brexit Scenarios
by Adam Button | Jan 15, 2019 13:57
We have already covered Brexit yesterday on here so we'll cover China's....CAD & NZD are the strongest and CHF & JPY are the weakest since the....The Brexit vote is due later today at 14:00 Eastern/19:00 GMT...The Premium video ahead of the Brexit vote shall be posted to subscribers....nbsp; More on Brexit Vote Scenarios here...China's economy could be struggling far more than believed...We have long highlighted the importance of Chinese imports as a leading....Trade is also one of the most-reliable Chinese data points owing to its....In yuan terms, imports fell 3...1% year-over-year in December compared to a rise of +12...0% expected...In dollar terms imports were down 7...6% y/y (lowest since mid 2016), compared to +4...5% expected...Either way it's one the largest misses on Chinese data in memory...The market was surprisingly sanguine...The thinking is that this is a temporary slowdown that will be reversed by the....Moreover, China has previously resorted to industrial levers, but this time it....The Chinese data calendar is quiet until next Monday when retail sales,....Watch for de-risking on Friday ahead of the data and keep an eye on corporate....In the shorter term, the focus will be on the meaningful Brexit vote...It's expected between 1900-20:00 GMT...For more on this, please see yesterday's IMT.
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Intraday Market Thought: Williams Confirms Neutral Pre Minutes
by Adam Button | Feb 20, 2019 10:48
The US dollar fell across the board on a combination of Yuan-related comments....Today's FOMC Minutes should reveal more on the shift to neutral...A new USD trade has been issued on Tuesday night in line with the....Currently, 8 of the 9 existing trades are in the green...The video also details why we confirmed our EURUSD long on Friday when the pair....Williams on Tuesday said rates are already at neutral...That's a slight shift from earlier communication...It's a further sign that policymakers will be in no rush to hike....Importantly, policymakers are increasingly pointing to risks abroad as....That means that even months of positive US economic data may not be enough to....The dollar sagged throughout the day and risk assets rallied along with gold....The pound was the top performer on hopes for some kind of progress on Brexit....There was also talk that the Malthouse compromise is alive once again...In trade talks, the US was said to press for a stable yuan...That's a tough thing to ask for because the Chinese currency continues....At most this should probably be seen as a pledge to halt any quick yuan declines....Still, it's a boost to broader emerging market currencies and an idea....Looking ahead, the pound will remain in focus after the rise above the 200-day....A poor outcome from May's meeting could send it right back below 1...2900...Meanwhile, the Fed Minutes risk sending conflicting signals on positive domestic..
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Intraday Market Thought: Gold: Is it Different this Time?
by Ashraf Laidi | Jun 3, 2019 15:41
Is the ascent in gold another example of its many unsustainable rallies? Or will....7% in May, posting its biggest monthly gain since January, thanks to a helpful....We won't go through the powerful textbook technicals justifying the....But there are other dynamics...Resurfacing market expectations of a Fed rate cut this year (86% chance of a....USD Recurring Failures & Stagflation Risks....The recurring failures of various USD pairs to retest and break recent highs....Whether it is USDCNY's failure to break 6...0, EURUSD's holding above 1...10 or USDJPY's cap at 112, the FX message is loud and clear...nbsp;....Today's release of US May manufacturing ISM hitting 2 ½....Last week, the PMI version of manufacturing hit a 10-year low...Perhpas "stagflation" is a little exageration, but slowing growth....Silver's striking signal?....What about silver? Is it time for gold's cheaper cousin to finally wake up?....All these fundamentals factors are well and good...You probably have read a similar narrative 6 months or 2 years ago...The key here is to figure out whether the price action will enter a new wave....And that's what I'll cover in tonight's Premium Video.
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Intraday Market Thought: Bonds vs Tech & Golden/Death Crosses
by Adam Button | Jul 10, 2020 17:44
Mixeds global indices as a result of more bad news on the Corona front,....As the SPX shows a Golden Cross in its 55/200 MA cross, here's more on the&....and golddenRelentless dip-buying in tech supported equities Thursday but the....CAD is the weakest of the day alongside AUD-- despite an upside surprise in....JPY and GBP lead the day, with cable revisiting Thursday's 1...2660s high, keeping Thurday's Premium long in cable +160 pips in the....Below is today's content from Ashraf's WhatsApp Broadcast Group (open....nbsp;....At 17:30 Friday London, Nasdaq is down -0...2%, while DOW30 and SPX are up more than 0...5%....Risk trades soured Thursday on stubbornly high US unemployment claims....However it was a different story in the bond market as 10-year Treasury yields....6 bps as the steepener trade unwound...Long bond yields are now at the lowest since May 15 in a growing sign of the....Florida virus cases breached the 7-day average while Arizona's rise matched....Schools closed in Hong Kong due to a sharp rebound in cases, while a shrimp....As Ashraf said to his WhatsApp Broadcast Group, he expected more buy-the-dip in....80...nbsp;....One of the things market bulls frequently cite is the low US mortality....California and Florida both reported record one-day highs...nbsp;It all sets up for another battle on Friday, a day where virus testing and....nbsp;..
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Intraday Market Thought: The Bottom for Rates
by Adam Button | Oct 8, 2020 18:27
Kiwi and Loonie went their separate ways...The RBNZ highlighted on Thursday that it's “actively working” on....Even with the more-aggressive negative rate talk, the New Zealand dollar hardly....CAD soared across the board as US crude regained 41...A new Premium trade was issued on Wednesday...Below are 2 mystery charts...Care to guess?....The default mode for central bankers at the moment is to do more...10-year rates in New Zealand are at 0...55%....While that's more than 100 bps above German 10s, it remains a pitiful level....Moreover, the New Zealand's economy has a host of geographic and demographic....Still, it's increasingly clear that more is coming...This was hinted in the September monetary policy review but comments from....Yet after a small dip, the kiwi bounced right back...The rates market also brushed it off...It's similar elsewhere as central banks mull ways to do more even as bond....US 30-year rates are a market we're watching closely at the moment and they....Perhaps that's owing to polls showing a blue wave but it's also an....5% for 30 years is a dismal return and that with central banks and governments....With the RBNZ still set to act, we're clearly not there yet on a central....Whether it's a blow-off or a long topping process is a tougher question..
