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  • Intraday Market Thought: Yellen Doesn’t Pre-Commit, More Vol to Come

    by Adam Button | Mar 15, 2017 23:13
    Yellen Doesn’t Pre-Commit, More Vol to Come Chart A crowded US dollar trade was pushed to the exits Wednesday when the Fed failed....The dollar dropped at least 100 pips across the board...New Zealand GDP and Australian jobs will keep the volatility going in the hours....nbsp;The Premium trades posted a new USD trade backed by 3 charts & 6....Expectations for the Fed grew to downright frothy levels in the past two....What had been a low probability of a hike turned into a certainty and talk of....As we warned yesterday, that it's not in Yellen's nature to pre-commit...With this hike she waited until the day of the Fed blackout to tip her hand and....The statement was slightly more constructive and she was more upbeat on....A June hike is now priced at roughly 50/50...Technically, the big moves against the dollar highlighted how much of a....It wasn't able to get much traction despite the shift to price in hikes and....The euro climbed to the highest since February 6 on the Fed news but also on....According to exit polls, Wilders finished in a three-way tie for second....That was shy of the 22 seats that were anticipated and well behind the Liberal....We're cognizant that exit polls were wrong in the US vote and Brexit vote....Up next, we look to New Zealand GDP numbers at 2145 GMT and Australian jobs....Both currencies made big gains against the US dollar Wednesday and positive....After that we will look to the central bank decisions from the SNB, BOE and BOJ....nbsp;..

  • Intraday Market Thought: USDJPY Marches on, Aussie Data next

    by Adam Button | May 8, 2017 23:31
    USDJPY Marches on, Aussie Data next Chart Disappointment at the nonfarm payrolls report was a distant memory on Monday as....On the day, USD was the top performer while the Swiss franc lagged...Australian retail sales and the budget are due up next...USD/JPY broke 113...20 in a rise to the highest since March 16...It's been a steady 500 pip climb since April 16 as the S&P 500....The Federal Reserve is one reason why...Mester spoke Monday and brushed aside week economic data while touting....The euro was a classic 'sell the fact' trade as the opening gap above....10 in EUR/USD quickly closed and the pair fell to 1...0920...The March26 high of 1...0906 and psychological support at 1...0900 are the next levels to watch...With the French election ending and Trump leaving his first 100 days, expect....Political risk has been at generational highs but it's likely to ebb over....In that time, the focus will shift back to economic data and central banks...A third focus will be China...Officials have been tightening credit in an attempt to cool the economy...The fallout has been felt through the commodities market and we will be....In terms of economic data, next we look to Australian retail sales at 0130 GMT...The consensus is for a 0...3% m/m rise...AUD/USD finished near the lowest levels since January on Monday and it has....What will eventually prove to be a bigger driver of AUD is the government&....One accounting proposal is to separate regular government debt from....It's an interesting development and more of a PR move that would make road..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Macron Maxes Out

    by Adam Button | Jun 12, 2017 1:07
    Macron Maxes Out Chart Six month ago Macron was an underdog to win the Presidency but his improbable....The Australian dollar was the top performer last week while the pound....CFTC positioning data saw GBP shorts pile in ahead of the election...A new Premium video on the existing Premium trades will be posted mid Monday....Macron's La Republique En Marche won 415-455 seats in the first round of....The vote for the right wing National Front faded to only 1-5 seats and former....The theme of 2016 in elections was a shift to populism but in 2017 it has....Corbyn's ability to turn out the vote is as shocking as anything over the....That sets up years of political drama and the specter of wildly divergent....At the moment, a badly wounded May is attempting to hang on with the backing....If she's toppled, the uncertainty will be a fresh reason to sell the pound...CFTC Commitments of Traders....Speculative net futures trader positions as of the close on Tuesday...Net short denoted by - long by....EUR +74K vs +73K prior...GBP -37K vs -30K prior...JPY -55K vs -52K prior...CHF -17K vs -19K prior...CAD -94K vs -98K prior...AUD 0K vs +3K prior...NZD -2K vs -5K prior....The moves of committment of traders were modest this week but at least a few....EUR longs inched to a fresh high dating back to 2007 and CAD shorts remain near..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Canadian Confusion

    by Adam Button | Jun 23, 2017 0:06
    Canadian Confusion Chart The Canadian dollar surged again Thursday after a strong retail sales....The AUD and EUR were laggards in the otherwise low-key day...The June Japan manufacturing PMI is up next...شراء الانخفاضات أو بيع الارتدادت؟" [فيديو العربي للمشتركين فقط]....Canadian retail sales rose 0...8% compared to 0...3% expected...Excluding autos, sales were up 1...5% compared to 0...7% expected...The strong numbers have been ongoing for months and household consumption is now....In a surprise turn, the Bank of Canada shifted gears last week and switched to....USD/CAD is down 3 cents since including more than a cent on Thursday...In that same timeframe, odds of a BOC hike on July 12 has risen to 50/50 from....Poloz has a reputation as someone who doesn't mind surprising the market...But let's recap...All that Wilkins said is that the BOC “will assess whether all the....rdquo; There is no urgency in that statement and a good retail sales report....Meanwhile, oil is down nearly 20% in a month...The BOC will also have noted the recent decline in Toronto home prices...According to a preliminary realtor report released Wednesday, prices have....By hiking, the BOC would be risking popping a bubble that's already....So come July 12, the trade will likely be to sell CAD ahead of the headlines....Another economy that's done well this year is Japan...The calendar is generally quiet in Asia-Pacific trading Friday but the Nikkei....The prior reading was 53...1.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Trade and Tribulations; BOE Next

    by Adam Button | Aug 3, 2017 11:24
    Trade and Tribulations; BOE Next Chart The backbone of Trump's electoral promise was a better deal on trade and....The euro was the top performer Wednesday while the Swiss franc lagged...GBPUSD edged up on higher than expected services PMI...The BoE decision, quarterly Inflation Report and Carney testimony are next...The Premium trades will close the GBPUSD long at 170-pip gain ahead of the BoE....تركيز على الإسترليني و اليورو (فيديو للمشتركين فقط)....Reports on Wednesday said the White House could take trade actions against....This action will target intellectual property rights and could mean....Any day, Trump's administration could also launch protectionist measures....Combine that with the scheduled start of NAFTA negotiations next week and the....What's worse is the targets of Trump's ire likely sense weakness in the....Add it all up and it increasingly leaves a razor-thin margin for success with....The momentum against USD continued Wednesday with the euro topping 1...1900 and cable shaking off a poor construction PMI to touch 1...3250...That data point will likely help to keep the BOE on the sidelines Thursday but....The big question is whether Andy Haldane join hawks Saunders and McCafferty to....That kind of momentum may force Carney into signalling higher rates in the near....Even if the votes don't swing, there  is plenty of scope for a hawkish....Technically, cable continues to chew towards the Sept 2016 high of 1...3444.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Into Focus

    by Adam Button | Sep 20, 2017 14:22
    Fed Into Focus Chart Choppy USD trade ensues ahead of today's highly anticipated Fed announcement,....The antipodean currencies dominate trading, led by a soaring kiwi as NZ'....UK retail sales beat expectations and US existing home sales fell by more than....New trade actions and videos will be posted this afternoon ahead of the Fed&....Trump was at the UN and ramped up rhetoric against North Korea and Iran....At the moment, the dollar is less-sensitive to geopolitical headlines than....That's in part due to higher liquidity but there is also a newfound....Balance Sheet to Overshadow Dots....Expect the focus to center on the balance sheet reduction program, which....What will be the planned reduction amount in 2017? $30 bn, $40bn or more?....The FOMC decision may prove to be more hawkish than many believe...The dot plot will be downgraded to some degree but 12 of the 16 dots in June....Yellen will also want to keep her options open, especially if Republicans....The market overall is net short the US dollar but Yellen and the Fed are....All it would take to restart the US dollar rally is a fresh hint at a..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Russia Redux But Focus Elsewhere

    by Adam Button | Oct 30, 2017 21:53
    Russia Redux But Focus Elsewhere Chart The front-page news this week might be the Trump-Russia drama but the US dollar....The pound was the top performer while the Canadian dollar lagged...Japanese jobless numbers are due later...A new Premium trade has been posted and sent, supported by 3 charts and 4....It will be explained in detail in Tuesday's Premium video...سيتم شرح صفقة هذا المساء بالتفصيل في الفيديو العربي يوم الثلاثاء للمشتركين...nbsp;....The indictment of Trump's campaign manager Paul Manafort and another top....The playbook earlier this year was to fade any moves on the investigation,....That won't change unless the scandal reaches the President or his family...In the meantime, the market has far more direct and near-term news to drive....One story is the Fed chair decision, which will is expected on Thursday...A further leak Monday suggested that Powell is the likely pick and that's....It's part of the reason that 10-year yields fell back below 2...40% to 2...36%....Another part of the reason is that the corporate tax cut might take years...A report indicated that the plan – which will be released Wednesday....That's still good for corporate USA but not as quick and powerful as hoped...In turn, the US dollar fell through most of the session...Sterling, in particularly, took advantage in an 80 pip rally...That may also reflect a sense in the GBP market that it can focus on the BOE....In the near-term, Asia-Pacific traders will look to Japanese data on jobs at..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Fed Waits, BOE Next

    by Adam Button | Nov 1, 2017 22:30
    Fed Waits, BOE Next Chart The Fed touted better growth but the FOMC statement reiterated concerns about....The New Zealand dollar was the top performer after solid jobs figures,....Australian trade balance is due next followed the BoE decision on Thursday...2 GBP and 1 FTSE trades are in progress...The Fed decision was a bit of a dud in terms of market moves...The initial reaction was to sell the US dollar as the Fed indicated inflation....USD traders now shift to Thursday's tax plan...A Congresswoman said the details will be released at 9 am ET (1300 GMT)....The drawback to much details is disappointment...Political spin is sure to come from deficit hawks...The grandstanding will be intense and that might prompt a move to safe havens...The other US news to come on Thursday will be the Fed chair decision...However, a late-breaking report says Powell has been told the job is his...That decision was mostly priced in and the attention will now turn to his....Before that, data on Australian trade balance is due at 0030 GMT...The consensus is for a surplus of A$1...2B and any miss could send another jolt through AUD trading...The bigger market mover will be the Bank of England decision...The market is pricing in a 90% chance of a hike so the bigger driver will be....The BoE Minutes will show the extent of unanimity, the BoE inflation report....Plenty of market watchers are talking about a one-and done but the market is....That's a low bar...Carney could sound his usual neutral stance, but if he's constructive..

  • Intraday Market Thought: Crypto Shakeout, USD Wilt Continues, BOC Next

    by Adam Button | Jan 17, 2018 0:18
    Crypto Shakeout, USD Wilt Continues, BOC Next Chart Tuesday was a brutal day for cryptocurrencies with falls from 20-40%....The Swiss franc was the best performer Tuesday while the New Zealand dollar....The BOC decision is coming later...There are 4 existing Premium trades in progress, all of which are in the green...nbsp; Here is a tweet from Ashraf on Dec 12, 6 day before Bitcoin's peak...Bitcoin fell 20% on Tuesday as the US returned from a holiday and talk of a....Ripple fell 40% as well...One story was the collapse of the cryptoscam from Bitconnect and that may....Impressively, the dip buyers stepped in on a few fronts and Bitcoin rebounded....20 from $0...87...In FX, the US dollar finally staged a rebound and EUR/USD briefly fell below 1...2200 but it couldn't even sustain itself for the day as EUR/USD rebounded....2270 and USD/JPY made fresh lows, in part due to the first negative day of....Taking a step back,  it's clear that the animal spirits have been....Some tipping point has been reached and the crisis-era wounds have finally been....That is changing the way markets behave and adapting with it will be a major....In the global economy, the big question right now is how deeply central bankers....One big clue will come Wednesday in the Bank of Canada decision...Here is Ashraf's piece on the BoC...It's unlikely that Poloz badly wants to hike but he painted himself into a....He's also limited in his statement communication by the same misstep...However, he may also increasingly believe that an acceleration in growth....In that case, a hike with a hawkish stance is appropriate and USD/CAD will....20.

  • Intraday Market Thought: Bitcoin Seasonals. Really?

    by Adam Button | Jan 18, 2018 12:33
    Bitcoin Seasonals. Really? Chart Watch out FX traders...Wednesday was another tumultuous day in the currencies following BoC hike and US....Overnight, Aussie jobs slowed to a higher level than was expected but....80...Earlier today, US Philly Fed survey eased as well as US jobless claims...Here is a chart suggesting a possible January-February seasonality in Bitcoin&....Could it be a result of Chinese selling Bitcoin in January to help Chinese New....The Bank of Canada delivered a rate hike that was 90% priced in but left the....The initial reaction in USD/CAD was higher on talk of a dovish hike but the....He spoke about wanting to get back to 2...50%-3...50% and increased confidence the economy was on track...At the same time, he spent half the press conference talking about NAFTA....After hitting 1...2520 USD/CAD slowly reversed down to the lows of the day at 1...2370 but part due to a broad US dollar selloff...At the same time, cable soared to a post-Brexit high of 1...3940 as part of a rout on the dollar...However the selling stopped after the Beige Book...It offered a slightly more-optimistic take on wages and the economy...Earlier in the day, Dallas Fed President Kaplan also made a hawkish shift,....With that, the dollar began a broad reversal and cable fell back to 1...3820 – more than 120 pips from the high...The euro also fell below 1...22 and USD/JPY rose to 111...30...As part of the same move, bonds sold off and US 10-year yields rose to 2...59% while gold suffered a $10 decline, which is the worst in five weeks...Through it all, the S&P 500 ripped another 26 points higher to close just....Sorting through all the 'why' in the market right now is a mammoth task...More important is the 'what' and that's heightened volatility...It was evident in FX lately and it could spread...If so, that's a broader negative for stocks and risk appetite...It's getting close to the time for caution.
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